Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
Bayesian spatio-temporal discard model in a demersal trawl fishery
2014
Spatial management of discards has recently been proposed as a useful tool for the protection of juveniles, by reducing discard rates and can be used as a buffer against management errors and recruitment failure. In this study Bayesian hierarchical spatial models have been used to analyze about 440 trawl fishing operations of two different metiers, sampled between 2009 and 2012, in order to improve our understanding of factors that influence the quantity of discards and to identify their spatio-temporal distribution in the study area. Our analysis showed that the relative importance of each variable was different for each metier, with a few similarities. In particular, the random vessel eff…
Testing hypotheses in evolutionary ecology with imperfect detection: capture-recapture structural equation modeling.
2012
8 pages; International audience; Studying evolutionary mechanisms in natural populations often requires testing multifactorial scenarios of causality involving direct and indirect relationships among individual and environmental variables. It is also essential to account for the imperfect detection of individuals to provide unbiased demographic parameter estimates. To cope with these issues, we developed a new approach combining structural equation models with capture-recapture models (CR-SEM) that allows the investigation of competing hypotheses about individual and environmental variability observed in demographic parameters. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian frame…
A recipe for postfledging survival in great tits Parus major: be large and be early (but not too much)
2016
Survival of juveniles during the postfledging period can be markedly low, which may have major consequences on avian population dynamics. Knowing which factors operating during the nesting phase affect postfledging survival is crucial to understand avian breeding strategies. We aimed to obtain a robust set of predictors of postfledging local survival using the great tit (Parus major) as a model species. We used mark–recapture models to analyze the effect of hatching date, temperatures experienced during the nestling period, fledging size and body mass on first-year postfledging survival probability of great tit juveniles. We used data from 5192 nestlings of first clutches ringed between 199…
Dealing with physical barriers in bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) distribution
2019
Abstract Worldwide, cetacean species have started to be protected, but they are still very vulnerable to accidental damage from an expanding range of human activities at sea. To properly manage these potential threats we need a detailed understanding of the seasonal distributions of these highly mobile populations. To achieve this goal, a growing effort has been underway to develop species distribution models (SDMs) that correctly describe and predict preferred species areas. However, accuracy is not always easy to achieve when physical barriers, such as islands, are present. Indeed, SDMs assume, if only implicitly, that the spatial effect is stationary, and that correlation is only depende…
Quantifying and addressing the prevalence and bias of study designs in the environmental and social sciences
2020
Building trust in science and evidence-based decision-making depends heavily on the credibility of studies and their findings. Researchers employ many different study designs that vary in their risk of bias to evaluate the true effect of interventions or impacts. Here, we empirically quantify, on a large scale, the prevalence of different study designs and the magnitude of bias in their estimates. Randomised designs and controlled observational designs with pre-intervention sampling were used by just 23% of intervention studies in biodiversity conservation, and 36% of intervention studies in social science. We demonstrate, through pairwise within-study comparisons across 49 environmental da…
Escaping the evolutionary trap: Can size-related contest advantage compensate for juvenile mortality disadvantage when parasitoids develop in unnatur…
2021
Abstract The quality of hosts for a parasitoid wasp may be influenced by attributes such as host size or species, with high quality for successful development usually coincident with high quality for larger offspring. This is not always the case: for the Scelionid wasp Trissolcus basalis, oviposition in eggs of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys, rather than of the normal host, the Southern Green Stink Bug, Nezara viridula, leads to lower offspring survival, but survivors can be unusually large. Adult female T. basalis engage in contests for host access. As larger contestants are typically favoured in contests between parasitoids, the larger size of surviving offspring may co…
A global occurrence database of the Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus
2021
The Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus is a portunid native to the western Atlantic, from New England to Uruguay. The species was introduced in Europe in 1901 where it has become invasive; additionally, a significant northward expansion has been emphasized in its native range. Here we present a harmonized global compilation of C. sapidus occurrences from native and non-native distribution ranges derived from online databases (GBIF, BISON, OBIS, and iNaturalist) as well as from unpublished and published sources. The dataset consists of 40,388 geo-referenced occurrences, 39,824 from native and 564 from non-native ranges, recorded in 53 countries. The implementation of quality controls imp…
Dynamic complexities in host-parasitoid interaction
1999
In the 1970s ecological research detected chaos and other forms of complex dynamics in simple population dynamics models, initiating a new research tradition in ecology. However, the investigations of complex population dynamics have mainly concentrated on single populations and not on higher dimensional ecological systems. Here we report a detailed study of the complicated dynamics occurring in a basic discrete-time model of host-parasitoid interaction. The complexities include (a) non-unique dynamics, meaning that several attractors coexist, (b) basins of attraction (defined as the set of the initial conditions leading to a certain type of an attractor) with fractal properties (pattern of…
Hierarchical log Gaussian Cox process for regeneration in uneven-aged forests
2021
We propose a hierarchical log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) for point patterns, where a set of points x affects another set of points y but not vice versa. We use the model to investigate the effect of large trees to the locations of seedlings. In the model, every point in x has a parametric influence kernel or signal, which together form an influence field. Conditionally on the parameters, the influence field acts as a spatial covariate in the intensity of the model, and the intensity itself is a non-linear function of the parameters. Points outside the observation window may affect the influence field inside the window. We propose an edge correction to account for this missing data. The par…
Variational Approximations for Generalized Linear Latent Variable Models
2017
Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVMs) are a powerful class of models for understanding the relationships among multiple, correlated responses. Estimation, however, presents a major challenge, as the marginal likelihood does not possess a closed form for nonnormal responses. We propose a variational approximation (VA) method for estimating GLLVMs. For the common cases of binary, ordinal, and overdispersed count data, we derive fully closed-form approximations to the marginal log-likelihood function in each case. Compared to other methods such as the expectation-maximization algorithm, estimation using VA is fast and straightforward to implement. Predictions of the latent variabl…