Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
Solving Non-Stationary Bandit Problems by Random Sampling from Sibling Kalman Filters
2010
Published version of an article from Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Also available at SpringerLink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13033-5_21 The multi-armed bandit problem is a classical optimization problem where an agent sequentially pulls one of multiple arms attached to a gambling machine, with each pull resulting in a random reward. The reward distributions are unknown, and thus, one must balance between exploiting existing knowledge about the arms, and obtaining new information. Dynamically changing (non-stationary) bandit problems are particularly challenging because each change of the reward distributions may progressively degrade the performance of any fixed strategy. Alt…
A “Swedish” actuarial balance for a notional defined contribution pension scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits
2017
This article proposes a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet (ABS) for a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. The proposed ABS splits the pension system in two parts: the pure NDC part and the redistributive part, which includes the assets and liabilities originating from non-contributory rights. The article contains a numerical example that sheds light on the real applicability of our proposal. The model has practical implications that could be of interest to policy-makers, given that it integrates actuarial and social aspects of public pensions and discloses the real cost of redistribution through minimum pensions.
Thompson Sampling Guided Stochastic Searching on the Line for Adversarial Learning
2015
The multi-armed bandit problem has been studied for decades. In brief, a gambler repeatedly pulls one out of N slot machine arms, randomly receiving a reward or a penalty from each pull. The aim of the gambler is to maximize the expected number of rewards received, when the probabilities of receiving rewards are unknown. Thus, the gambler must, as quickly as possible, identify the arm with the largest probability of producing rewards, compactly capturing the exploration-exploitation dilemma in reinforcement learning. In this paper we introduce a particular challenging variant of the multi-armed bandit problem, inspired by the so-called N-Door Puzzle. In this variant, the gambler is only tol…
Separating mismatch negativity (MMN) response from auditory obligatory brain responses in school-aged children
2013
Mismatch negativity (MMN) overlaps with other auditory event-related potential (ERP) components. We examined the ERPs of 50 9- to 11-year-old children for vowels /i/, /y/ and equivalent complex tones. The goal was to separate MMN from obligatory ERP components using principal component analysis and equal probability control condition. In addition to the contrast of the deviant minus standard response, we employed the contrast of the deviant minus control response, to see whether the obligatory processing contributes to MMN in children. When looking for differences in speech deviant minus standard contrast, MMN starts around 112 ms. However, when both contrasts are examined, MMN emerges for …
Electron Emission of Pt: Experimental Study and Comparison With Models in the Multipactor Energy Range
2016
Experimental data of secondary emission yield (SEY) and electron emission spectra of Pt under electron irradiation for normal incidence and primary energies lower than 1 keV are presented. Several relevant magnitudes, as total SEY, elastic backscattering probability, secondary emission spectrum, and backscattering coefficient, are given for different primary energies. These magnitudes are compared with theoretical or semiempirical formulas commonly used in the related literature.
Bayesian Analysis of a Future Beta Decay Experiment's Sensitivity to Neutrino Mass Scale and Ordering
2021
Bayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. We present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment's sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the $\beta$-decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision $\beta$-decay experiment's sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering, for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the el…
Analysis of the Overdispersed Clock in the Short-Term Evolution of Hepatitis C Virus: Using the E1/E2 Gene Sequences to Infer Infection Dates in a Si…
2006
Abstract The assumption of a molecular clock for dating events from sequence information is often frustrated by the presence of heterogeneity among evolutionary rates due, among other factors, to positively selected sites. In this work, our goal is to explore methods to estimate infection dates from sequence analysis. One such method, based on site stripping for clock detection, was proposed to unravel the clocklike molecular evolution in sequences showing high variability of evolutionary rates and in the presence of positive selection. Other alternatives imply accommodating heterogeneity in evolutionary rates at various levels, without eliminating any information from the data. Here we pre…
Output Feedback Control of Discrete Impulsive Switched Systems with State Delays and Missing Measurements
2013
Published version of an article in the journal: Mathematical Problems in Engineering. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/283426 Open Access This paper is concerned with the problem of dynamic output feedback (DOF) control for a class of uncertain discrete impulsive switched systems with state delays and missing measurements. The missing measurements are modeled as a binary switch sequence specified by a conditional probability distribution. The problem addressed is to design an output feedback controller such that for all admissible uncertainties, the closed-loop system is exponentially stable in mean square sense. By using the average dwell time approach a…
Bot or not? a case study on bot recognition from web session logs
2018
This work reports on a study of web usage logs to verify whether it is possible to achieve good recognition rates in the task of distinguishing between human users and automated bots using computational intelligence techniques. Two problem statements are given, offline (for completed sessions) and on-line (for sequences of individual HTTP requests). The former is solved with several standard computational intelligence tools. For the second, a learning version of Wald’s sequential probability ratio test is used.
Explicit Granger causality in kernel Hilbert spaces
2020
Granger causality (GC) is undoubtedly the most widely used method to infer cause-effect relations from observational time series. Several nonlinear alternatives to GC have been proposed based on kernel methods. We generalize kernel Granger causality by considering the variables cross-relations explicitly in Hilbert spaces. The framework is shown to generalize the linear and kernel GC methods, and comes with tighter bounds of performance based on Rademacher complexity. We successfully evaluate its performance in standard dynamical systems, as well as to identify the arrow of time in coupled R\"ossler systems, and is exploited to disclose the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon f…