Search results for " Rainfall"

Potential predictability of crop impacting climate variables for East Africa and application to sorghum in the Mt Kenya area

2013

In Southern countries with rural low income populations, the vulnerability of rainfed agriculture to rainfall variability requires effective solutions to mitigate the effects of climatic hazards on crops. Predicting the characteristics of rainy seasons some time before they start should help the establishment of agricultural adaptation strategies to rainfall hazards. This is the objective of the present study, focused on East Africa (Kenya and northern Tanzania), and divided in three parts:- Define and document intra-seasonal descriptors (ISD) that will be considered in the predictability study. A new methodological approach has been developed in order to define the onset date (ORS) and the…

Impact of rainfall data resolution in time and space on the urban flooding evaluation

2012

ABSTRACT Climate change and the modification of urban environment increase the frequency and the impact of flooding rising the interest of researchers and practitioners on this topic. Usually flooding frequency analysis in urban areas are indirectly carried out by adopting advanced hydraulic models to simulate long historical rainfall series or design storms. However their results are affected by a grade of uncertainty which has been much investigated in recent years. One of the most critical source of uncertainty inherent to hydraulic model results is linked to the imperfect knowledge of the rainfall input data both in time and space. Several studies show that hydrological modelling in urb…

Relationship of Weather Types on the Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Rainfall, Runoff, and Sediment Yield in the Western Mediterranean Basin

2020

Producción Científica

Comparison between storm tracking analysis techniques in urban area based on high resolution raingauge data

2007

Predicting Earthquake-Induced Landslides by Using a Stochastic Modeling Approach: A Case Study of the 2001 El Salvador Coseismic Landslides

2023

In January and February 2001, El Salvador was hit by two strong earthquakes that triggered thousands of landslides, causing 1259 fatalities and extensive damage. The analysis of aerial and SPOT-4 satellite images allowed us to map 6491 coseismic landslides, mainly debris slides and flows that occurred in volcanic epiclastites and pyroclastites. Four different multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models were produced using different predictors and landslide inventories which contain slope failures triggered by an extreme rainfall event in 2009 and those induced by the earthquakes of 2001. In a predictive analysis, three validation scenarios were employed: the first and the second …

Establishing a threshold for rainfall‐induced landslides by a kinetic energy–duration relationship

2020

Many investigators have attempted to define the threshold of landslide failure, that is, the level of the selected climatic variable above which a rainfall-induced landslide occurs. Intensity–duration (I–d) relationships are the most common type of empirical thresholds proposed in the literature for predicting landslide occurrence induced by rainfall. Recent studies propose the use of the kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall (J m−2 mm−1) to quantify the threshold of landslides induced by rainfall. In this paper, the relationship between rainfall duration and kinetic power corresponding to landslides triggered by rain was used to propose a new approach to define the threshold for predic…

Uncertainty evaluation of design rainfall for urban flood risk analysis

2011

A reliable and long dataset describing urban flood locations, volumes and depths would be an ideal prerequisite for assessing flood frequency distributions. However, data are often piecemeal and long-term hydraulic modelling is often adopted to estimate floods from historical rainfall series. Long-term modelling approaches are time- and resource-consuming, and synthetically designed rainfalls are often used to estimate flood frequencies. The present paper aimsto assess the uncertainty of such an approach and for suggesting improvements in thedefinition of synthetic rainfall data for flooding frequency analysis. According to this aim, a multivariate statistical analysis based on a copulameth…

Rainfall depth-duration-frequency curves for short-duration precipitation events in Sicily (Italy)

2019

The design criteria of the hydraulic infrastructures, including, for instance, those for flood defense, urban drainage systems, reservoirs spillways and bridges, are based on the coupled analysis of the magnitude of rainfall events for a fixed duration and their estimated annual exceedance probability. The well-known rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves, typically derived from the analysis of long historical annual maxima data series, synthesize the relationships between rainfall depth, duration and exceedance probability which is usually expressed as a return period. The time-resolution of rainfall data typically available for the construction of DDF curves and provided by gauges…

Selection of the Optimal Design Rainfall Return Period of Urban Drainage Systems

2014

Abstract The aim of this work is to define a methodology to identify the optimal rainfall return period for the design of urban drainage systems. The choice of the optimal return period is made minimizing the total costs of the system: the sewer network is dimensioned for a set of possible design rainfall return periods, and the corresponding construction, maintenance and operation costs are evaluated. For each scenario, the total expected damage from flooding caused by rainfall events with return period greater than the design one is then estimated by hydraulic simulation. This methodology has been applied to a small urban catchment in Palermo (Italy).

Multivariate nonparametric estimation of the Pickands dependence function using Bernstein polynomials

2017

Abstract Many applications in risk analysis require the estimation of the dependence among multivariate maxima, especially in environmental sciences. Such dependence can be described by the Pickands dependence function of the underlying extreme-value copula. Here, a nonparametric estimator is constructed as the sample equivalent of a multivariate extension of the madogram. Shape constraints on the family of Pickands dependence functions are taken into account by means of a representation in terms of Bernstein polynomials. The large-sample theory of the estimator is developed and its finite-sample performance is evaluated with a simulation study. The approach is illustrated with a dataset of…