Search results for " autoregressive"

Simulating term structure of interest rates with arbitrary marginals

2011

Decision models under uncertainty rely their analysis on scenarios of the economic factors. A key economic factor is the term structure of interest rates (yields). Simulation models of the yield curve usually assume that the conjugate distribution of the interest rates is lognormal. Dynamic models, like vector auto-regression, implicitly postulate that the logarithm of the interest rates is normally distributed. Statistical analyses have, however, shown that stationary transformations (yield changes) of the interest rates are substantially leptokurtic, thus posing serious doubts on the reliability of the available models. We propose in this paper a VARTA model (Biller and Nelson, 2003) to s…

Robust estimation of partial directed coherence by the vector optimal parameter search algorithm

2009

We propose a method for the accurate estimation of Partial Directed Coherence (PDC) from multichannel time series. The method is based on multivariate vector autoregressive (MVAR) model identification performed through the recently proposed Vector Optimal Parameter Search (VOPS) algorithm. Using Monte Carlo simulations generated by different MVAR models, the proposed VOPS algorithm is compared with the traditional Vector Least Squares (VLS) identification method. We show that the VOPS provides more accurate PDC estimates than the VLS (either overall and single-arc errors) in presence of interactions with long delays and missing terms, and for noisy multichannel time series. ©2009 IEEE.

Multivariate autoregressive model with instantaneous effects to improve brain connectivity estimation

2009

On the use of adaptive spatial weight matrices from disease mapping multivariate analyses

2020

Conditional autoregressive distributions are commonly used to model spatial dependence between nearby geographic units in disease mapping studies. These distributions induce spatial dependence by means of a spatial weights matrix that quantifies the strength of dependence between any two neighboring spatial units. The most common procedure for defining that spatial weights matrix is using an adjacency criterion. In that case, all pairs of spatial units with adjacent borders are given the same weight (typically 1) and the remaining non-adjacent units are assigned a weight of 0. However, assuming all spatial neighbors in a model to be equally influential could be possibly a too rigid or inapp…

Multivariate and Multiscale Complexity of Long-Range Correlated Cardiovascular and Respiratory Variability Series

2020

Assessing the dynamical complexity of biological time series represents an important topic with potential applications ranging from the characterization of physiological states and pathological conditions to the calculation of diagnostic parameters. In particular, cardiovascular time series exhibit a variability produced by different physiological control mechanisms coupled with each other, which take into account several variables and operate across multiple time scales that result in the coexistence of short term dynamics and long-range correlations. The most widely employed technique to evaluate the dynamical complexity of a time series at different time scales, the so-called multiscale …

Measuring frequency domain granger causality for multiple blocks of interacting time series

2011

In the past years, several frequency-domain causality measures based on vector autoregressive time series modeling have been suggested to assess directional connectivity in neural systems. The most followed approaches are based on representing the considered set of multiple time series as a realization of two or three vector-valued processes, yielding the so-called Geweke linear feedback measures, or as a realization of multiple scalar-valued processes, yielding popular measures like the directed coherence (DC) and the partial DC (PDC). In the present study, these two approaches are unified and generalized by proposing novel frequency-domain causality measures which extend the existing meas…

Extended causal modeling to assess Partial Directed Coherence in multiple time series with significant instantaneous interactions.

2010

The Partial Directed Coherence (PDC) and its generalized formulation (gPDC) are popular tools for investigating, in the frequency domain, the concept of Granger causality among multivariate (MV) time series. PDC and gPDC are formalized in terms of the coefficients of an MV autoregressive (MVAR) model which describes only the lagged effects among the time series and forsakes instantaneous effects. However, instantaneous effects are known to affect linear parametric modeling, and are likely to occur in experimental time series. In this study, we investigate the impact on the assessment of frequency domain causality of excluding instantaneous effects from the model underlying PDC evaluation. M…

Testing different methodologies for Granger causality estimation: A simulation study

2021

Granger causality (GC) is a method for determining whether and how two time series exert causal influences one over the other. As it is easy to implement through vector autoregressive (VAR) models and can be generalized to the multivariate case, GC has spread in many different areas of research such as neuroscience and network physiology. In its basic formulation, the computation of GC involves two different regressions, taking respectively into account the whole past history of the investigated multivariate time series (full model) and the past of all time series except the putatively causal time series (restricted model). However, the restricted model cannot be represented through a finit…

Vector Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Models to Assess Multiscale Complexity in Cardiovascular and Respiratory Time Series

2020

Cardiovascular variability is the result of the activity of several physiological control mechanisms, which involve different variables and operate across multiple time scales encompassing short term dynamics and long range correlations. This study presents a new approach to assess the multiscale complexity of multivariate time series, based on linear parametric models incorporating autoregressive coefficients and fractional integration. The approach extends to the multivariate case recent works introducing a linear parametric representation of multiscale entropy, and is exploited to assess the complexity of cardiovascular and respiratory time series in healthy subjects studied during postu…

Data-based modeling of vehicle collisions by nonlinear autoregressive model and feedforward neural network

2013

Vehicle crash test is the most direct and common method to assess vehicle crashworthiness. Visual inspection and obtained measurements, such as car acceleration, are used, e.g. to examine impact severity of an occupant or to assess overall car safety. However, those experiments are complex, time-consuming, and expensive. We propose a method to reproduce car kinematics during a collision using nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) model which parameters are estimated by the use of feedforward neural network. NAR model presented in this study is derived from the more general one - nonlinear autoregressive with moving average (NARMA). Suitability of autoregressive systems for data-based modeling was …