Search results for " default"
showing 6 items of 36 documents
Connexive Logic, Probabilistic Default Reasoning, and Compound Conditionals
2023
We present two approaches to investigate the validity of connexive principles and related formulas and properties within coherence-based probability logic. Connexive logic emerged from the intuition that conditionals of the form if not-A, then A, should not hold, since the conditional’s antecedent not-A contradicts its consequent A. Our approaches cover this intuition by observing that the only coherent probability assessment on the conditional event A | not-A is p(A | not-A) = 0. In the first approach we investigate connexive principles within coherence-based probabilistic default reasoning, by interpreting defaults and negated defaults in terms of suitable probabilistic constraints on con…
Probabilistic semantics for categorical syllogisms of Figure II
2018
A coherence-based probability semantics for categorical syllogisms of Figure I, which have transitive structures, has been proposed recently (Gilio, Pfeifer, & Sanfilippo [15]). We extend this work by studying Figure II under coherence. Camestres is an example of a Figure II syllogism: from Every P is M and No S is M infer No S is P. We interpret these sentences by suitable conditional probability assessments. Since the probabilistic inference of \(\bar{P}|S\) from the premise set \(\{M|P,\bar{M}|S\}\) is not informative, we add \(p(S|(S \vee P))>0\) as a probabilistic constraint (i.e., an “existential import assumption”) to obtain probabilistic informativeness. We show how to propagate the…
How costly are debt crises?
2011
The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.
Corporate board and default risk of financial firms
2022
This paper analyses the impact of corporate board structure on default risk of European banking firms. We focus on four core aspects of boards that have been addressed in Directive 2013/36/ EU to strengthen the corporate governance of banks: the size of boards, their independence, the participation of female directors and CEO duality. We employ panel data analysis to study the 109 European listed banks between 2002 and 2019. Default risk is estimated by Merton’s (1974) distance to default. We take into account the presence of unobservable heterogeneity, simultaneity and dynamic endogeneity and estimate the model using the dynamic difference and dynamic system GMM methodologies. The results …
A Discrete-Time Hazard Model for Loans: Some Evidence from Italian Banking System
2012
Problem statement: The probability of default, PD, is a crucial probl em for banks. In the last years international accords (Basel, Basel 2 an d Basel 3) have incentived banks to adopt objective s systems to evaluating and monitoring risk of defaul t in order to predict PD for new loans based on borrower's characteristics. The aim of this study i s to introduce a discrete survival model to study t he risk of default and to propose the empirical eviden ce by the Italian banking system. Approach: Survival analysis is used if we are interested in w hether and when an event occurs. In this context th e event occurrence represents a borrower's transition from one state, loan in bonis that is not…
Ļaunprātīgas rīcības jēdziens Ženēvas 1956. gada 19. maija Konvencijā "Par kravu starptautisko autopārvadājumu līgumu (CMR)."
2015
CMR konvencijā pārvadātāju atbildība par pilnīgu vai daļēju kravas zaudējumu ir ierobežota. Tomēr 29. pantā ir ietverts izņēmums, kad pārvadātāja atbildība netiek ierobežota. 29. panta redakcija pieļauj ļoti atšķirīgu izpratni attiecībā uz to, kādos gadījumos pārvadātājs ir jāatbrīvo no atbildības. Darba mērķis ir padziļināti izpētīt ļaunprātīgas un tai pielīdzināmas rīcības jēdziena saturu, salīdzinot jēdziena izpratni Rietumeiropas valstīs un Latvijā. Darba ietvaros autors veiks konvencijas 29. panta teleoloģiskā un vēsturisko interpretāciju, kā arī aplūkos un analizēs valstu tiesu praksi 29. panta piemērošanā. Darba rezultāts ir izstrādāts pētījums, kurā ir uzskatāmi salīdzināta valstu i…