Search results for " forecast"

Comment améliorer la prévision des ventes pour le marketing ? Les apports de la théorie du chaos

2013

National audience; La littérature en marketing constate un décalage entre les avancées réalisées par les chercheurs qui développent de nouvelles méthodes de prévision des ventes, et l'usage massif de méthodes traditionnelles reposant sur l'hypothèse de linéarité des processus analysés. Cette recherche expose la contribution poten¬tielle de la théorie du chaos à l'amélioration de la prévision des ventes. Une illustration de ces apports est proposée avec une application à la prévision des ventes de consoles de jeux vidéo au Japon. Les résultats mettent en évidence la capacité de la méthode proposée à détecter la présence de chaos dans la série et montrent la possibilité de préciser l'horizon …

Forecasting daily urban electric load profiles using artificial neural networks

2004

The paper illustrates a combined approach based on unsupervised and supervised neural networks for the electric energy demand forecasting of a suburban area with a prediction time of 24 h. A preventive classification of the historical load data is performed during the unsupervised stage by means of a Kohonen's self organizing map (SOM). The actual forecast is obtained using a two layered feed forward neural network, trained with the back propagation with momentum learning algorithm. In order to investigate the influence of climate variability on the electricity consumption, the neural network is trained using weather data (temperature, relative humidity, global solar radiation) along with h…

Primi studi sulla biologia e sul controllo di Cydia funebrana (Treitschke) in susineti biologici siciliani

2011

First studies on biology and control of Cydia funebrana (treitschke) in Sicilian organic plum orchards. Cydia funebrana (Treitschke), considered the key pest in the Sicilian plum orchards. Few studies were carried out in Sicily concerning C. funebrana life cycle, forecasting models and the effectiveness of some products permitted in organic plum orchards. In 2010 researches were carried out in three Sicilian plum orchards, two in Palermo Province (Monreale and San Giuseppe Jato) and one in Agrigento Province (Castrofilippo), in order to monitor the population, to evaluate damage levels caused by the plum moth and to estimate how many generations it could complete by Charmillot’s forecasting…

MULTIPLE CLIMATE-DRIVEN CASCADING ECOSYSTEM EFFECTS AFTER THE LOSS OF A FOUNDATION SPECIES

2021

Abstract Climate change is evolving so fast that the related adverse effects on the environment are becoming noticeable. Thus, there is an urgent need to explore and understand the effects generated by multiple extreme climatic events (MECEs) on marine ecosystem functioning and the services provided. Accordingly, we combined long-term in-situ empirical observations in the Mediterranean Sea with a mesocosm manipulation to investigate the concurrence of increasing temperature and hypoxia events. By focussing on a foundation mussel species, we were able to detect several cascade events triggered by a mass mortality event caused by stressful temperature and oxygen conditions, and resulting in a…

Predicting reservoir water volumes in the Mediterranean area by combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecasts data

Derivation of rainfall thresholds for pluvial flood risk warning in urbanised areas

2016

In the recent past throughout the Mediterranean area, many extreme events such as floods, debris flows and landslides occurred. Mediterranean ephemeral streams have specific features compared to other river systems; their basins are small and highly torrential and may generate flash-floods (Camarasa-Belmonte & Soriano-Garcia, 2012). Moreover, the rapid transformation processes of urban areas induced the increase of catchment imperviousness and the derived increase of surface runoff generated during rainfall events. However, flooding events in urban areas occur quite frequently as a consequence of rain events of lower intensity than the design one, even in case of correct network dimensionin…

Development of an early warning system to predict sewer overflow

Flash flooding in our city is still a fairly common phenomenon.Unfortunately, the development of a flash flood forecasting system in urban areas is not a simple and unambiguous procedure.While attending the PhD course in Civil and Environmental Engineering, research activity has been given to realize an urban overflowing prediction system that was best as possible suited to the drainage network of the city of Palermo. With the support of radar data and hybrid hydraulic model for drainage network has been possible to demonstrate the effectiveness of this instrument, while the reduction of residual flood risk has been supported by modern resilience measures.

Predicting Real-Time Roadside CO and NO2 Concentrations using Neural Networks

2008

An intelligent way to predict the building thermal needs: ANNs and optimization

2022

The evaluation of the energy performance of existing or new buildings is a fundamental action to guarantee the feasibility of a project and the achievement of the minimum efficiency requirements. In general, the determination of the thermal loads of a building is carried out via software but their use requires adequate knowledge of physical phenomena and therefore the presence of an expert user. Furthermore, the resolution can be difficult to implement and can require high computational costs; all conditions that can influence the success of a project. Based on these considerations, this work proposes an alternative solution to traditional calculation tools, which in a simple and effective …

Flax–Glass Fiber Reinforced Hybrid Composites Exposed to a Salt-Fog/Dry Cycle: A Simplified Approach to Predict Their Performance Recovery

2023

Despite natural fibers gaining significant attention in recent decades, their limited performance and poor durability under humid environments cannot allow them to fully replace their synthetic counterparts as reinforcement for structural composites. In such a context, this paper aims to investigate how exposure to a humid/dry cycle affects the mechanical response of epoxy laminates reinforced with flax and glass fibers. In particular, the main goal is to assess the performance evolution of a glass–flax hybridized stacking sequence in comparison with the full glass and flax fiber reinforced composites. To this end, the investigated composites were first exposed to salt-fog for 15 or 30 days…