Search results for " forecast"
showing 10 items of 220 documents
Practical Volcano-Independent Recognition of Seismic Events: VULCAN.ears Project
2021
Recognizing the mechanisms underlying seismic activity and tracking temporal and spatial patterns of earthquakes represent primary inputs to monitor active volcanoes and forecast eruptions. To quantify this seismicity, catalogs are established to summarize the history of the observed types and number of volcano-seismic events. In volcano observatories the detection and posterior classification or labeling of the events is manually performed by technicians, often suffering a lack of unified criteria and eventually resulting in poorly reliable labeled databases. State-of-the-art automatic Volcano-Seismic Recognition (VSR) systems allow real-time monitoring and consistent catalogs. VSR systems…
Design and development of a Java-based graphical user interface to monitor/control a meteorological real-time forecasting system
2010
A regional forecasting system based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being run at the CEAM Foundation. The operational model involves several processes running in the background at specified times and executing a set of systematic steps. This system is being used as a support for a heat-wave warning system, a wind forecasting system for fire warning and prevention, and for general forecasting tasks. However, it is relatively difficult to use by researchers and forecasters without sophisticated information technology (IT) skill. In this paper, we report an effort to develop a tool to facilitate the monitoring of the system. This tool is based on the client-server archite…
Climate change impact on SWAT simulated streamflow in western Kenya
2008
Weather and climate extremes such as droughts and floods have far reaching impacts in Kenya. They have had implications in a variety of sectors including agriculture, water resources, health, energy, and disaster management among others. Lake Victoria and its catchment support millions of people and any impact on its ability to support the livelihoods of the communities in this region is of major concern. Thus, the main objective of this study was to assess the potential future climatic changes on the Nzoia catchment in the Lake Victoria basin, and how they might affect streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to investigate the impact of climatic change on streamflow of the …
Recurrent daily rainfall patterns over South Africa and associated dynamics during the core of the austral summer
2010
This paper investigates the influence of some modes of climate variability on the spatio-temporal rainfall variability over South Africa during the core of the rainy season, December to February (DJF). All analyses are based directly on the rainfall field instead of atmospheric processes and dynamics. An original agglomerative hierarchical clustering approach is used to classify daily rainfall patterns recorded at 5352 stations from DJF 1971 to DJF 1999. Five clusters are retained for analysis. Amongst them, one cluster looks most like the rainfall and circulation mean picture. Another one, representing 37% of the days, describes strong negative rainfall anomalies over South Africa resultin…
Wind Speed Forecasting by Box-Jenkins Models
2008
The possibility of modelling observed wind speed time series and forecasting their future values is presented in this paper. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models are applied to time series formed by four years hourly average wind speed measurements in thirty sites of Sicily. Our approach is considerably different from the original one (the Box-Jenkins approach) since it is completely automatic. We use a peculiar feature of wind speed on a land area, its daily period, to identify a class of SARIMA models within which to find the best fitting model by information criteria (here we employ AICC). Here we report the results, concerning the fit and forecast accuracy, …
Applying Numerical Weather Prediction Models to the Production of New European Wind Atlas : Sensitivity studies of the wind climate to the planetary …
2018
Reliable and precise information about the wind speed climate is crucial for the development of wind energy. Meteorological processes in the mesoscale (2 – 200 km) can be represented using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), but before their application for creating wind energy atlases, their results and sensitivity to modelling parameters should be investigated. Here the WRF model wind speed results for the year 2015 for the Baltic Sea region are investigated, and the effect of the planetary boundary layer parametrization scheme is analyzed.
Verification of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Results for Energy Applications in Latvia
2014
Abstract Wind power forecasting greatly relies on wind speed forecasts. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a reliable source of meteorological forecasts and they can also be used in wind resource assessment. In this work we carry out the verification of wind speed results from the NWP model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF), grid resolution - 3 km. Results from 172 model runs in May and November 2013 are compared with meteorological observations in 24 stations in Latvia. The model usually predicts wind speed values that are larger than the observed and the diurnal cycle has a large impact on verification results. Verification results obtained by interpolating model results betw…
Prévision et spatialisation des concentrations en ozone troposphérique en Bourgogne
2006
This PhD done in the Centre de Recherche de Climatologie, UMR 5210 CNRS of University of Burgundy has been supported by the Conseil Régional de Bourgogne, and the AASQA of Burgundy (Atmosf'Air). The ozone, a poison gas, is the core of this research because it is considered as one of the major worrying atmospheric pollutants in this region. We have conducted a study focused on hourly concentrations of measured ozone over several years for 12 stations. Their spatial and temporal variability are related to some features outside of the region (ground-level ozone, synoptic-scale conditions) and inside of the region (physical properties, land cover, meteorological features and precursor potential…
Étude climatique de la mousson vietnamienne et applications à la prévision saisonnière
2008
This thesis aims at documenting the physical and dynamic processes associated with the monsoon circulation of Vietnamese regional and synoptic scales, to explore the predictability of its key components and develop statistical and dynamical methods for forecasting the monsoon onset and seasonal. It is divided into two parts. The first part is, in fact, a climate study based on analysis of diagnostic data: - first, the monthly rainfall and temperature data station over the period 1960-2000 are used to analyze the cycle and the variability of these fields on the seven traditional climatic regions of Vietnam using the observed precipitation in various stations. Classifications and correlations…
THE EVOLUTION OF ADVERTISING MARKET WHERE IS ADVERTISING NOW, AND WHERE IS IT GOING?
2010
Advertising is more complicated than it used to be. In the innocent days of the 70’s and 80’s you could easily reach large audiences, both locally and nationally, through traditional advertising. Those days are long gone and an examination of the advertising playing field looks like a big pile of incomprehensible choice. In Romania, advertising has mushroomed over the past 10 years. With the emergence of large international companies and the budgets allocated to them in advertising, advertisers have appeared, only present in major cities of Romania. After 2000, there were several media institutions with very large budget and big plans for the advertising market in Romania. Are some media gr…