Search results for " forecast"
showing 10 items of 220 documents
Comparing two applicative criteria of the soil erosion physical model concept
2017
The physical model represented by a replicated plot has been suggested to be the best possible, unbiased, real world model to predict plot soil erosion. The aim of this investigation was to compare the original applicative criterion of the physical model concept proposed by Nearing with that later suggested by Bagarello et al. The comparison was performed by using three empirical soil erosion models (the Universal Soil Loss Equation [USLE], a modified USLE [USLE-MM], and the Central and Southern Italy [CSI] model) and plot soil loss data collected at the experimental station of Sparacia, in Sicily (southern Italy). The investigation showed that (i) the new criterion was generally more restr…
Predictive pumping based on sensor data and weather forecast
2019
In energy production, peat extraction has a significant role in Finland. However, protection of nature has become more and more important globally. How do we solve this conflict of interests respecting both views? In peat production, one important phase is to drain peat bog so that peat production becomes available. This means that we have control over how we can lead water away from peat bog to nature without water contamination with solid and other harmful substances. In this paper we describe a novel method how fouling of water bodies from peat bog can be controlled more efficiently by using weather forecast to predict rainfall and thus, minimize the effluents to nature. peerReviewed
Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa
2015
16 pages; International audience; The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments w…
Deducibilidad de los intereses de demora en el Impuesto sobre Sociedades : comentario de la STS de España núm. 150/2021, de 8 de febrero
2021
This study analyzes STS 150/2021, of February 8, which has declared the deductibility of late payment interest in Corporation Tax. To do this, a review is made of the nature of the moratory interest, the forecast of the tax on the calculation of the taxable base in said tax and the framing of these interests within the deductible expense.
PENERAPAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE DAN EXSPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA USAHA ASRIE MODESTA
2020
This study aims to (1) analyze the number of demands for batik products in the second period of 2018. (2) To analyze the most appropriate forecasting method. (3) To analyze the forecasting of the first period in 2019 using the selected forecasting method.
 This reseach uses primary data and secondary data with data collection techniques using interviews, observation, and documentation. The analysis used is Single Moving Averages and Exsponential Smoothing. 
 The results of research in forecasting demand for batik products in 2019 with the Single Moving Average method are 3,936 units with Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 632.5 units and Mean Square Error (MSE) of 693,718 units. An…
Validity of the study of sentinel lymph nodes in the treatment of breast carcinoma.
2004
Since it was introduced in the 1990s, axillary sentinel lymph-node biopsy has been rapidly and widely adopted to avoid complete axillary dissection (though this is still the standard procedure). The aims of the study were two-fold: (i) to determine the value of different techniques of sentinel lymph-node identification and (ii) to verify the predictive value of such procedures through histological examination of the sentinel lymph node and axillary dissection in the same patients. Both sentinel lymph-node biopsy and axillary dissection were performed in 230 patients with T1 and T2 (< 3 cm) carcinoma of the breast. Preoperative lymphoscintigraphy was able to identify the sentinel lymph node …
A new preprocessing tool of ECMWF data for CALMET forecasting simulations
2019
Today, strategies for emergency preparedness, in presence of accidental scenarios in high-risk plants with releases into the atmosphere, have become a priority. To achieve this goal, it is important to have forecast meteorological data in local areas to use in dispersion and transport models and so to respond in advance emergency situations. The paper reports results of research performed to develop a new tool, called FORCALM that is capable to elaborate European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast data to use for simulations by CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system. A case study, relevant to an accident occurred in Mediterranean Refinery at Milazzo (Italy), has been examined to val…
On the Estimation of the Volatility-Growth Link
2012
It is common practice to estimate the volatility-growth link by specifying a standard growth equation such that the variance of the error term appears as an explanatory variable in this growth equation. The variance in turn is modeled by a second equation. Hardly any of existing applications of this framework includes exogenous controls in this second variance equation. Our theoretical findings suggest that the absence of relevant explanatory variables in the variance equation leads to a biased and inconsistent estimate of the volatility-growth link. Our simulations show that this effect is large. Once the appropriate controls are included in the variance equation consistency is restored. I…
Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook
2017
"Çalışmada 29 yazar bulunmaktadır. Bu yazarlardan sadece Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi mensuplarının girişleri yapılmıştır” The paper presents the first modelling experiment of the European-scale olive pollen dispersion, analyses the quality of the predictions, and outlines the research needs. A 6-model strong ensemble of Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) was run throughout the olive season of 2014, computing the olive pollen distribution. The simulations have been compared with observations in eight countries, which are members of the European Aeroallergen Network (EAN). Analysis was performed for individual models, the ensemble mean and median, and for a dynamically optimised c…
FISSIT (Fistula Surgery in Italy) study: A retrospective survey on the surgical management of anal fistulas in Italy over the last 15 years
2021
Background: Surgical treatment of anal fistulas is still a challenge. The aims of this study were to evaluate the adoption and healing rates for the different surgical techniques used in Italy over the past 15 years. Methods: This was a multicenter retrospective observational study of patients affected by simple and complex anal fistulas of cryptoglandular origin who were surgically treated in the period 2003–2017. Surgical techniques were grouped as sphincter-cutting or sphincter-sparing and as technology-assisted or techno-free. All patients included in the study were followed for at least 12 months. Results: A total of 9,536 patients (5,520 simple; 4,016 complex fistulas) entered the stu…