Search results for " forecast"

Forecasting Passenger Traffic for a Regional Airport

2019

Abstract The purpose of the present research is estimating the potential traffic for SIA (Sibiu International Airport, SBZ) for the year 2017. Predicting as accurate as possible the passenger traffic for a certain airport is an aspect of major importance for both the airport management and the airline companies. The theoretical quality of the forecasting models for air traffic of passengers is fundamental for obtaining the most accurate predictions. In this regard, a two-step process was used in developing the traffic forecasting model: (1) Identifying the proper regression model for traffic estimation based on the number of aircraft departures, and (2) Forecasting the number of aircraft de…

Wind Speed Forecasting

2009

This paper aims at providing a general class of stochastic models for hourly average wind speed time series taking into account all the main features of wind speed data, namely autocorrelation, non-Gaussian distribution, seasonal and diurnal nonstationarity. It will be shown that the methodology developed in this study, tested using the data recorded in two sites of Italy, attains valuable results in terms both of modelling and forecasting.

Stochastic models for wind speed time series: a case study

2010

The effectiveness of the autoregressive models in forecasting the agricultural prices in Poland

2010

The forecast of agricultural prices is one of the most important factors in making decision on production farms. The appropriate forecast allows for limiting the risk connected with one’s economic activity. In this study autoregressive models have been used, which helped to determine the price forecast for agricultural products in the purchasing centers in the second half of 2010. To determine the quality of forecast the average ex-post errors of the past forecasts have been used. The achieved results show that autoregressive models are an effective tool in forecasting the agricultural prices in Poland.

Empirical analysis of daily cash flow time-series and its implications for forecasting

2019

Usual assumptions on the statistical properties of daily net cash flows include normality, absence of correlation and stationarity. We provide a comprehensive study based on a real-world cash flow data set showing that: (i) the usual assumption of normality, absence of correlation and stationarity hardly appear; (ii) non-linearity is often relevant for forecasting; and (iii) typical data transformations have little impact on linearity and normality. This evidence may lead to consider a more data-driven approach such as time-series forecasting in an attempt to provide cash managers with expert systems in cash management.

Development of Neural Network Prediction Models for the Energy Producibility of a Parabolic Dish: A Comparison with the Analytical Approach

2022

Solar energy is one of the most widely exploited renewable/sustainable resources for electricity generation, with photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies at the forefront of research. This study focuses on the development of a neural network prediction model aimed at assessing the energy producibility of dish–Stirling systems, testing the methodology and offering a useful tool to support the design and sizing phases of the system at different installation sites. Employing the open-source platform TensorFlow, two different classes of feedforward neural networks were developed and validated (multilayer perceptron and radial basis function). The absolute novelty of this approac…

Sobre substitució lingüística i autòmats cel.lulars (SLAC): decurs de la investigació

2010

Hem optat per focalitzar la nostra investigació, tot i l'ampla aplicabilitat de la recerca, en la detecció del futur de la nostra llengua a partir dels pressupòsits de la Psicologia Social Computacional. I això mitjançant la utilització de la simulació informàtica, basada en els autòmats cel·lulars, que ha donat els primers resultats que presentem i explicitem en la nostra aportació a l'ANUARI. Així, hi abordem el futur de la llengua pròpia a partir de la conducta referida als parlants del País Valencià i amb la intenció d'esbrinar la reversió de la substitució lingüística.

Earnings management to exceed thresholds in continental and Anglo-Saxon accounting models: The British and French cases

2017

International audience; The purpose of this paper is to compare the extent to which French and British firms manage their earnings in order to avoid losses, decreases in earnings and earnings below the forecasts of analysts. Further, this study aims to investigate the factors that potentially influence earnings management to exceed thresholds with reference to the Anglo-Saxon and continental accounting models. Britain and France, correspondingly, belong to those different socio-economic environments. Based on a panel data of 1771 French and 2057 British firm-year observations during the period 2002–2012, we show that all firms considered manage earnings to beat zero and last year’s earnings…

SMOS-IC: An Alternative SMOS Soil Moisture and Vegetation Optical Depth Product

2017

© 2017 by the authors. The main goal of the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission over land surfaces is the production of global maps of soil moisture (SM) and vegetation optical depth (τ) based on multi-angular brightness temperature (TB) measurements at L-band. The operational SMOS Level 2 and Level 3 soil moisture algorithms account for different surface effects, such as vegetation opacity and soil roughness at 4 km resolution, in order to produce global retrievals of SM and τ. In this study, we present an alternative SMOS product that was developed by INRA (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique) and CESBIO (Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la BIOsphère). One of the main go…

Electricity load forecasting for Urban area using weather forecast information

2016

The global demand for energy is increasing daily with the expansion of energy infrastructure and the addition of new appliances. Efficient Energy Management System (EMS) is the need of the day. All residential and commercial buildings can achieve better energy efficiency and consumption with the use of EMS. Load forecasting is one of the methods to enable EMS to work efficiently. The accuracy of load forecast depends on many factors. The load forecast model must consider the weather forecast for the region in developing an accurate forecast. This paper develops Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Bagged Regression Trees to generate and predicted load forecast in Urban area using Meteorologi…