Search results for " forecast"
showing 10 items of 220 documents
Urban drainage and sustainable cities: how to achieve flood resilient societies?
2012
This paper tries to describe the main developments of urban flood forecasting and modelling. Currently, several new technologies are available for flood monitoring, modelling and mitigation and several paradigms suggest the adoption of greener approaches to urban storm water management. These tools and new approaches can be easily adaptable to new developments where the entire urban drainage system can be suited to follow a more sustainable way to drain storm water. The challenge for the future is instead aimed to apply this new philosophy to existing urban areas where the application of new tools and technologies requires high costs and such approaches have to be prepared by constructing a…
G-CLASS: geosynchronous radar for water cycle science – orbit selection and system design
2019
The mission geosynchronous – continental land atmosphere sensing system (G-CLASS) is designed to study thediurnal water cycle, using geosynchronous radar. Although the water cycle is vital to human society, processes on timescalesless than a day are very poorly observed from space. G-CLASS, using C-band geosynchronous radar, could transform this. Itsscience objectives address intense storms and high resolution weather prediction, and significant diurnal processes such assnow melt and soil moisture change, with societal impacts including agriculture, water resource management, flooding, andlandslides. Secondary objectives relate to ground motion observations for earthquake, volcano, and subs…
Coupled seismogenic geohazards in Alpine regions
2012
COupled seismogenic GEohazards in Alpine Regions (COGEAR) is an interdisciplinary natural hazard project investigating the hazard chain induced by earthquakes. It addresses tectonic processes and the related variability of seismicity in space and time, earthquake forecasting and short-term precursors, and strong ground motion as a result of source and complex path effects. We study non-linear wave propagation phenomena, liquefaction and triggering of landslides in soil and rock, as well as earthquake-induced snow avalanches. The Valais, and in particular parts of the Rhone, Visper, and Matter valleys have been selected as study areas. Tasks include detailed field investigations, development…
Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to different convective parameterization schemes in a heavy rain event
2011
Abstract. The Valencia region, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, is propitious to heavy precipitation, especially the area encompassing the South of Valencia province and the North of the Alicante province. In October 2007 a torrential rain affected the aforementioned area, producing accumulated rainfall values greater than 400 mm in less than 24 h and flash-floods that caused extensive economic losses and human casualties. This rain event has been studied in numerical experiments using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The present paper deals with the effect of using the different convective parameterizations (CP) currently implemented in the Regional Atmospheric…
Potential of historical meteorological and hydrological data for the reconstruction of historical flood events – the example of the 1882 flood in sou…
2009
Abstract. This paper presents a hydrometeorological reconstruction of the flood triggering meteorological situation and the simulation of discharges of the flood event of December 1882 in the Neckar catchment in Baden-Württemberg (southwest Germany). The course of the 1882 flood event in the Neckar catchment in southwest Germany and the weather conditions which led to this flood were reconstructed by evaluating the information from various historical sources. From these historical data, daily input data sets were derived for run-off modeling. For the determination of the precipitation pattern at the end of December 1882, the sparse historical data were modified by using a similar modern day…
Modelización de riesgos climáticos y sistemas de vigilancia y alerta en la Comunitat Valenciana
2013
El primer objetivo de esta Tesis está relacionado con el desarrollo e implementación de diferentes sistemas de vigilancia y alerta para el territorio de la Comunitat Valenciana: un sistema de predicción meteorológica en tiempo real basado en el modelo atmosférico de mesoescala Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) y un sistema de previsión del Índice UV (UVI), basado en el modelo Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART). Además, se propone una metodología que proporciona un entorno computacional adecuado para la administración y coordinación de los diferentes procesos implicados en ambos sistemas de vigilancia. La principal mejora de la predicción UVI es la utiliza…
A note on normalization schemes: The case of generalized forecast error variance decompositions
2016
The aim of this paper is to propose new normalization schemes for the values obtained from the generalized forecast error variance decomposition, in order to obtain more reliable net spillover measures. We provide a review of various matrix normalization schemes used in different application domains. The intention is to contribute to the financial econometrics literature aimed at building a bridge between different approaches able to detect spillover effects, such as spatial regressions and network analyses. Considering DGPs characterized by different degrees of correlation and persistence, we show that the popular row normalization scheme proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), as well as t…
Suite of Statistical Models Forecasting Latvian GDP
2014
Abstract We develop a suite of statistical models to forecast Latvian GDP. We employ various univariate and multivariate econometric techniques to obtain short-term GDP projections and to assess the performance of the models. We also comprise the information contained in components of GDP and obtain short-term GDP projections from disaggregated perspective. We run out-of-sample forecasting procedures to evaluate GDP projections and to assess forecasting accuracy of all individual statistical models. We conclude that factor and bridge models are among the best individually performing models in the suite. Forecasting accuracy obtained using disaggregated models of factor and bridge models is …
Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity
2018
Recently introduced measures for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) included in the data from 1997 - 2016 have a role in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity for both the euro area and the UK economies. The inclusion of EPU measures, either for the US, the UK or for overall European economies, improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information, especially for the period before the 2008 global crisis. However, during and after the crisis period, the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance the most compared to an AR-benchmark model. Hence, the EPU informatio…
Previsione delle prestazioni del veicolo su strada: stato dell’arte
2016
Questo lavoro contiene una rassegna dei metodi che sono usati per la previsione delle prestazioni del veicolo su strada, in dipendenza del motore installato. La prima parte mostra il calcolo delle resistenze al moto, cioè le forze che il veicolo deve vincere per avanzare sulle strade piane e in salita. Particolarmente interessante appare la parte che riguarda la resistenza aerodinamica, della quale si tratta di metodi sperimentali (galleria del vento), metodi empirici e metodi CFD. Si propone inoltre l’applicazione della norma CUNA sulla velocità per la determinazione dei consumi anche al calcolo dei coefficienti aerodinamici. La rassegna esclude la resistenza accidentale in curva perché no…