Search results for " forecasting"
showing 10 items of 163 documents
Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa
2015
16 pages; International audience; The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments w…
PENERAPAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE DAN EXSPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA USAHA ASRIE MODESTA
2020
This study aims to (1) analyze the number of demands for batik products in the second period of 2018. (2) To analyze the most appropriate forecasting method. (3) To analyze the forecasting of the first period in 2019 using the selected forecasting method.
 This reseach uses primary data and secondary data with data collection techniques using interviews, observation, and documentation. The analysis used is Single Moving Averages and Exsponential Smoothing. 
 The results of research in forecasting demand for batik products in 2019 with the Single Moving Average method are 3,936 units with Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 632.5 units and Mean Square Error (MSE) of 693,718 units. An…
Validity of the study of sentinel lymph nodes in the treatment of breast carcinoma.
2004
Since it was introduced in the 1990s, axillary sentinel lymph-node biopsy has been rapidly and widely adopted to avoid complete axillary dissection (though this is still the standard procedure). The aims of the study were two-fold: (i) to determine the value of different techniques of sentinel lymph-node identification and (ii) to verify the predictive value of such procedures through histological examination of the sentinel lymph node and axillary dissection in the same patients. Both sentinel lymph-node biopsy and axillary dissection were performed in 230 patients with T1 and T2 (< 3 cm) carcinoma of the breast. Preoperative lymphoscintigraphy was able to identify the sentinel lymph node …
Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook
2017
"Çalışmada 29 yazar bulunmaktadır. Bu yazarlardan sadece Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi mensuplarının girişleri yapılmıştır” The paper presents the first modelling experiment of the European-scale olive pollen dispersion, analyses the quality of the predictions, and outlines the research needs. A 6-model strong ensemble of Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) was run throughout the olive season of 2014, computing the olive pollen distribution. The simulations have been compared with observations in eight countries, which are members of the European Aeroallergen Network (EAN). Analysis was performed for individual models, the ensemble mean and median, and for a dynamically optimised c…
FISSIT (Fistula Surgery in Italy) study: A retrospective survey on the surgical management of anal fistulas in Italy over the last 15 years
2021
Background: Surgical treatment of anal fistulas is still a challenge. The aims of this study were to evaluate the adoption and healing rates for the different surgical techniques used in Italy over the past 15 years. Methods: This was a multicenter retrospective observational study of patients affected by simple and complex anal fistulas of cryptoglandular origin who were surgically treated in the period 2003–2017. Surgical techniques were grouped as sphincter-cutting or sphincter-sparing and as technology-assisted or techno-free. All patients included in the study were followed for at least 12 months. Results: A total of 9,536 patients (5,520 simple; 4,016 complex fistulas) entered the stu…
Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization With Genetic Algorithm to Train Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting
2019
This research proposes a new training algorithm for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to improve the short-term load forecasting (STLF) performance. The proposed algorithm overcomes the so-called training issue in ANNs, where it traps in local minima, by applying genetic algorithm operations in particle swarm optimization when it converges to local minima. The training ability of the hybridized training algorithm is evaluated using load data gathered by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. The ANN is trained using the new training algorithm with one-year data to forecast equal 48 periods of each day in 2013. During the testing phase, a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is used …
Daily Peak Temperature Forecasting with Elman Neural Networks
2005
This work presents a forecaster based on an Elman artificial neural network trained with resilient backpropagation algorithm for predicting the daily peak temperatures one day ahead. The available time series was recorded at Petrosino (TP), in the west coast of Sicily, Italy and it is composed by temperature (min and max values), the humidity (min and max values) and the rainfall value between January 1st, 1995 and May 14th, 2003. Performances and reliabilities of the proposed model were evaluated by a number of measures, comparing different neural models. Experimental results show very good prediction performances.
Short term wind speed prediction using Multi Layer Perceptron
2012
Among renewable energy sources wind energy is having an increasing influence on the supply of energy power. However wind energy is not a stationary power, depending on the fluctuations of the wind, so that is necessary to cope with these fluctuations that may cause problems the electricity grid stability. The ability to predict short-term wind speed and consequent production patterns becomes critical for the all the operators of wind energy. This paper studies several configurations of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), a well-known tool able to estimate wind speed starting from measured data. The presented ANNs, t have been tested through data gathered in the area of Trapani (Sicily). Diffe…
Global Warming: Human Intervention in World Climate
2010
In the preceding chapter, we described climate changes that have occurred over very long geological periods. We concluded that Earth is currently in an interglacial interval within a rather long period of glaciations. Indeed, average carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have been slowly decreasing over the past 600,000 years, with accompanying cooling (Fig. 6.3). There have been, of course, many periodic changes in the CO2 concentrations and average temperature over this period (see Fig. 7.1). However, very recently, something quite unique and startling has occurred. As Fig. 7.1 shows, there has been a remarkable increase in CO2 levels, actually during the past 200 years, from 28…
Bias correction of dynamically downscaled precipitation to compute soil water deficit for explaining year-to-year variation of tree growth over north…
2017
This paper documents the accuracy of a post-correction method applied to precipitation regionalized by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Climate Model (RCM) for improving simulated rainfall and feeding impact studies. The WRF simulation covers Burgundy (northeastern France) at a 8-km resolution and over a 20-year long period (1989–2008). Previous results show a strong deficiency of the WRF model for simulating precipitation, especially when convective processes are involved. In order to reduce such biases, a Quantile Mapping (QM) method is applied to WRF-simulated precipitation using the mesoscale atmospheric analyses system SAFRAN («Système d'Analyse Fournissant des Rense…