Search results for " menetelmä"

Flexible Data Driven Inventory Management with Interactive Multiobjective Lot Size Optimization

2021

We study data-driven decision support and formalise a path from data to decision making. We focus on lot sizing in inventory management with stochastic demand and propose an interactive multi-objective optimisation approach. We forecast demand with a Bayesian model, which is based on sales data. After identifying relevant objectives relying on the demand model, we formulate an optimisation problem to determine lot sizes for multiple future time periods. Our approach combines different interactive multi-objective optimisation methods for finding the best balance among the objectives. For that, a decision maker with substance knowledge directs the solution process with one’s preference inform…

Approximation method for computationally expensive nonconvex multiobjective optimization problems

2012

Numerical simulation of Kerr nonlinear systems : analyzing non-classical dynamics

2019

Abstract We simulate coherent driven free dissipative Kerr nonlinear system numerically using Euler’s method by solving Heisenberg equation of motion and time evolving block decimation (TEBD) algorithm, and demonstrate how the numerical results are analogous to classical bistability. The comparison with analytics show that the TEBD numerics follow the quantum mechanical exact solution obtained by mapping the equation of motion of the density matrix of the system to a Fokker-Plank equation . Comparing between two different numerical techniques, we see that the semi-classical Euler’s method gives the dynamics of the system field of one among two coherent branches, whereas TEBD numerics genera…

Bayesian estimation of the specific shear and bulk viscosity of the quark-gluon plasma with additional flow harmonic observables

2021

The transport properties of the strongly coupled quark-gluon plasma created in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions are extracted by Bayesian parameter estimate methods with the latest collision beam energy data from the CERN Large Hadron Collider. This Bayesian analysis includes sophisticated flow harmonic observables for the first time. We found that the temperature dependence of specific shear viscosity appears weaker than in the previous studies. The results prefer a lower value of specific bulk viscosity and a higher switching temperature to reproduce additional observables. However, the improved statistical uncertainties both on the experimental data and hydrodynamic calculations wi…

Sähköteknisen teollisuuden investointeihin vaikuttavat tekijät

2001

Bayesian applications in dynamic econometric models

2009

The purpose of this thesis is to provide a few new ideas to the field of Bayesian econometrics. In particular, the focus of the thesis is on analyzing dynamic econometric models. In the first essay, we provide an easily implementable method for the Bayesian analysis of a simple hybrid DSGE model of Clarida et al. (1999). The forecasting properties of the model are tested against commonly used forecasting tools, such as Bayesian VARs and naïve forecasts based on univariate random walks. In particular, the predictability of three key macroeconomic-variables, inflation, short-term nominal interest rate and a measure of output gap, are studied using quarterly ex post and real-time U.S. data.Our…

Luokittelumenetelmän evaluointimenetelmien vertailu pienten aineistojen tapauksessa simulointikokein

2016

Luokitteluanalyysin tyypillinen ongelma on mallin valinta ja/tai muuttujien eli piirteiden valinta. Tavoitteena on estimoida luotettavasti luokitteluvirheen todennäköisyys opetusaineiston avulla - ideaalissa tilanteessa käyttäen riippumatonta testiaineistoa. Tällöin saadaan estimaatti yleistämisvirheelle, joka kuvaa opetusaineistosta estimoidun mallin kykyä ennustaa riippumatonta testiaineistoa. Usein kuitenkin aineiston niukkuudesta johtuen ei voida käyttää erillistä riippumatonta testiaineistoa, jolloin ei myöskään voida estimoida suoraan yleistämisvirhettä. Tällöin voidaan kuitenkin käyttää otoksen uudelleenkäyttömenetelmiä, joista käytetyimmät lienevät ristiinvalidointi ja bootstrap. Me…

The Ghost of the Hawk: Top Predator Shaping Bird Communities in Space and Time

2021

Despite the wide recognition that strongly interacting species can influence distributions of other species, species interactions are often disregarded when assessing or projecting biodiversity distributions. In particular, it remains largely uncharted the extent to which the disappearance of a keystone species cast repercussions in the species composition of future communities. We tested whether an avian top predator can exert both positive and negative effects on spatial distribution of other species, and if these effects persist even after the predator disappeared. We acquired bird count data at different distances from occupied and non-occupied nests of Northern goshawks Accipiter genti…

School Bullying Through Graphic Vignettes : Developing a New Arts-Based Method to Study a Sensitive Topic

2020

The purpose of this study was to develop a new arts-based measure assessing school bullying and to test it within a pilot study involving 19 schoolchildren (mean age = 15.4; range = 1.00). The researchers designed the new methodological tool (referred to as graphic vignettes) as a set of incomplete comic strips, which participants were asked to complete in a creative way. Researchers then invited participants to engage in follow-up interviews using completed comic strips as individualized interview prompts. The authors detail the design and administration of the graphic vignettes and discuss their efficacy, limitations, and potential applications. The researchers argue that studies on sensi…

Disentangling conditional effects of multiple regime shifts on Atlantic cod productivity

2020

AbstractRegime shifts are increasingly prevalent in the ecological literature. However, definitions vary, and many detection methods are subjective. Here, we employ an operationally objective means of identifying regime shifts, using a Bayesian online change-point detection algorithm able to simultaneously identify shifts in the mean and(or) variance of time series data. We detected multiple regime shifts in long-term (59-154 years) patterns of coastal Norwegian Atlantic cod (>70% decline) and putative drivers of cod productivity: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); sea-surface temperature; zooplankton abundance; fishing mortality (F). The consequences of an environmental or climate-relate…