Search results for " model"
showing 10 items of 16868 documents
Testing macroecological abundance patterns:the relationship between local abundance and range size, range position and climatic suitability among Eur…
2020
Aim A fundamental question in macroecology centres around understanding the relationship between species' local abundance and their distribution in geographical and climatic space (i.e. the multi-dimensional climatic space or climatic niche). Here, we tested three macroecological hypotheses that link local abundance to the following range properties: (a) the abundance-range size relationship, (b) the abundance-range centre relationship and (c) the abundance-suitability relationship. Location Europe. Taxon Vascular plants. Methods Distribution range maps were extracted from the Chorological Database Halle to derive information on the range and niche sizes of 517 European vascular plant speci…
Assessing the indirect and long-term ecological impacts of innovation in agriculture is a real challenge: the GM example
2003
All innovation in agriculture constitutes a significant and complex ecological disturbance, even if limited to a single and simple action. Indeed, whatever the nature and objective of the action, a large number of ecological processes are affected and numerous discontinuities may occur within the agro-ecosystem, in both time and space. As the GMO example illustrates, it is not sufficient to focus on direct effect of innovation, it is necessary to forecast mid- and long-term impacts of innovation with respect to the environment. Modelling phenomena appear then to be a key element to achieve this goal.
IPSIM-Cirsium, a Qualitative Expert-Based Model to Predict Infestations of Cirsium arvense
2021
Throughout Europe, Cirsium arvense is the most problematic perennial weed in arable crops, whether managed under organic or conventional agriculture. Non-chemical control methods are limited with partial efficacy. Knowledge is missing on their effect across a wide gradient of cropping systems and pedoclimates. To achieve effective Cirsium arvense management ensuring crop productivity while limiting the reliance of cropping systems on herbicide, expert-based models are needed to gather knowledge on the effect of individual levers and their interactions in order to (i) design and assess finely tuned combinations of farming practices in different pedoclimates and (ii) support decisions for Cir…
Fruit body based inventories in wood-inhabiting fungi: Should we replicate in space or time?
2016
We assessed the effect of survey design on the results when conducting fruit body surveys of wood-inhabiting fungi. Our results demonstrate that the optimal design depends on the ecological question to be addressed, as well as the group of fungal species under research. If the aim is to record the total species richness in a dead wood unit or to estimate the population size of a species, repeating the survey over time is generally necessary. However, if the aim is to estimate the total species richness in the forest or to assess how environmental covariates influence species richness or community composition, it is generally more efficient to increase the number of dead wood units than to r…
Resource availability and competition shape the evolution of survival and growth ability in a bacterial community
2013
Resource availability is one of the main factors determining the ecological dynamics of populations or species. Fluctuations in resource availability can increase or decrease the intensity of resource competition. Resource availability and competition can also cause evolutionary changes in life-history traits. We studied how community structure and resource fluctuations affect the evolution of fitness related traits using a two-species bacterial model system. Replicated populations of Serratia marcescens (copiotroph) and Novosophingobium capsulatum (oligotroph) were reared alone or together in environments with intergenerational, pulsed resource renewal. The comparison of ancestral and evol…
Non-linear biological responses to disturbance: consequences on population dynamics
2003
Abstract We assessed how non-linear biological responses to environmental noise, or “noise filtering”, impact the spectra of density-dependent population dynamics, and the correlation between noise and population dynamics. The noise was assumed to affect population growth rate in a discrete-time population model by Hassell [J. Anim. Ecol. 44 (1975) 283–295] where the population growth rate was linked to the environment with an optimum type filter. When compared to unfiltered noise, the filtered noise can distort the stationary distribution of population values. The optimum type filter can make cyclic population dynamics more regular and low population values can become more frequent or rare…
Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate
2013
The Iberian lynx ( Lynx pardinus ) has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century and is now on the brink of extinction 1 . Climate change could further threaten the survival of the species 2 , but its forecast effects are being neglected in recovery plans 3,4 . Quantitative estimates of extinction risk under climate change have so far mostly relied on inferences from correlative projections of species’ habitat shifts 5 . Here we use ecological niche models coupled to metapopulation simulations with source–sink dynamics 6,7 to directly investi- gate the combined effects of climate change, prey availabil- ity and management intervention on the persistence of the Iberian lyn…
The influence of temperature model assumptions on the prognosis accuracy of extinction risk
2000
Abstract For a species whose abundance is well-known to correlate on the degree of heat different temperature model assumptions may affect the prognosis accuracy of persistence. Likewise, year-to-year autocorrelations in weather fluctuations are known to decrease extinction risk. Thus, we investigated the grey bush cricket Platycleis albopunctata . For this species is known that growth and reproduction is mainly influenced by temperature. We developed a stochastic individual based model for the bush cricket. This day–degree model described the demographic growth of the species that depends on temperature. Daily temperatures were generated by five different methods: (i) temperatures were seq…
Non-unique population dynamics: basic patterns
2000
We review the basic patterns of complex non-uniqueness in simple discrete-time population dynamics models. We begin by studying a population dynamics model of a single species with a two-stage, two-habitat life cycle. We then explore in greater detail two ecological models describing host‐macroparasite and host‐parasitoid interspecific interactions. In general, several types of attractors, e.g. point equilibria vs. chaotic, periodic vs. quasiperiodic and quasiperiodic vs. chaotic attractors, may coexist in the same mapping. This non-uniqueness also indicates that the bifurcation diagrams, or the routes to chaos, depend on initial conditions and are therefore non-unique. The basins of attrac…
The Spatial Dimension in Population Fluctuations
1997
Theoretical research into the dynamics of coupled populations has suggested a rich ensemble of spatial structures that are created and maintained either by external disturbances or self-reinforcing interactions among the populations. Long-term data of the Canadian lynx from eight Canadian provinces display large-scale spatial synchrony in population fluctuations. The synchronous dynamics are not time-invariant, however, as pairs of populations that are initially in step may drift out of phase and back into phase. These observations are in agreement with predictions of a spatially-linked population model and support contemporary population ecology theory.