Search results for " predictive"
showing 10 items of 163 documents
Alternated estimation in semi-parametric space-time branching-type point processes with application to seismic catalogs
2014
An estimation approach for the semi-param-etric intensity function of a class of space-time point processes is introduced. In particular we want to account for the estimation of parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously, applying a forward predictive likelihood to semi-parametric models. For each event, the probability of being a background event or an offspring is therefore estimated.
Development Of An Econometric Model Case Study: Romanian Classification System
2015
Abstract The purpose of the paper is to illustrate an econometric model used to predict the lean meat content in pig carcasses, based on the muscle thickness and back fat thickness measured by the means of an optical probe (OptiGrade PRO).The analysis goes through all steps involved in the development of the model: statement of theory, specification of the mathematical model, sampling and collection of data, estimation of the parameters of the chosen econometric model, tests of the hypothesis derived from the model and prediction equations. The data have been in a controlled experiment conducted by the Romanian Carcass Classification Commission in 2007. The purpose of the experiment was to …
Bayesian classification for dating archaeological sites via projectile points
2021
Dating is a key element for archaeologists. We propose a Bayesian approach to provide chronology to sites that have neither radiocarbon dating nor clear stratigraphy and whose only information comes from lithic arrowheads. This classifier is based on the Dirichlet-multinomial inferential process and posterior predictive distributions. The procedure is applied to predict the period of a set of undated sites located in the east of the Iberian Peninsula during the IVth and IIIrd millennium cal. BC.
Bayesian Checking of the Second Levels of Hierarchical Models
2007
Hierarchical models are increasingly used in many applications. Along with this increased use comes a desire to investigate whether the model is compatible with the observed data. Bayesian methods are well suited to eliminate the many (nuisance) parameters in these complicated models; in this paper we investigate Bayesian methods for model checking. Since we contemplate model checking as a preliminary, exploratory analysis, we concentrate on objective Bayesian methods in which careful specification of an informative prior distribution is avoided. Numerous examples are given and different proposals are investigated and critically compared.
Environmental suitability model for the lanner falcon Falco biarmicus feldeggii: planning, study and monitoring the Sicilian population
2017
The identification of suitable areas, by spatially explicit distribution models, is crucial for conservation of threatened species as the lanner falcon Falco biarmicus feldeggii. Monitoring and collecting data on lanner falcon during years has proven to be essential for better defining the areas of species environmental suitability. Recent research shows that breeding performances of this species are strongly influenced by bioclimatic factors, especially monthly temperature and rainfall, or linked to landscape morphology, such as the slope of territories. These environmental parameters combined with species productivity (number of fledged juveniles per checked pair) of geo-referenced breedi…
Study on the application of an interspecific competition model for the prediction of microflora behaviour during the fermentation process of S. Angel…
2009
The use of predictive microbiology models able to evaluate bacterial behaviour as a function of environmental conditions and, at the same time, of natural microflora competition was considered by several authors with different approaches. Some authors modelled bacterial competition as a function of metabolic product with particular regard to lactic acid and modelled interspecific bacterial competition introducing a term into a conventional primary predictive model, which gives account for the interaction between two populations, so that they inhibit each other to the same extent that they inhibit their own growth.
Implementation of the Frailty Index in hospitalized older patients: Results from the REPOSI register
2018
Abstract Background Frailty is a state of increased vulnerability to stressors, associated to poor health outcomes. The aim of this study was to design and introduce a Frailty Index (FI; according to the age-related accumulation of deficit model) in a large cohort of hospitalized older persons, in order to benefit from its capacity to comprehensively weight the risk profile of the individual. Methods Patients aged 65 and older enrolled in the REPOSI register from 2010 to 2016 were considered in the present analyses. Variables recorded at the hospital admission (including socio-demographic, physical, cognitive, functional and clinical factors) were used to compute the FI. The prognostic impa…
The Italian version of the Juvenile Arthritis Multidimensional Assessment Report (JAMAR)
2018
The Juvenile Arthritis Multidimensional Assessment Report (JAMAR) is a new parent/patient reported outcome measure that enables a thorough assessment of the disease status in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). We report the results of the cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the parent and patient versions of the JAMAR in the Italian language. The reading comprehension of the questionnaire was tested in 10 JIA parents and patients. Each participating centre was asked to collect demographic, clinical data and the JAMAR in 100 consecutive JIA patients or all consecutive patients seen in a 6-month period and to administer the JAMAR to 100 healthy children and their paren…
Predictive diagnostics and personalized medicine for the prevention of chronic degenerative diseases
2010
Abstract Progressive increase of mean age and life expectancy in both industrialized and emerging societies parallels an increment of chronic degenerative diseases (CDD) such as cancer, cardiovascular, autoimmune or neurodegenerative diseases among the elderly. CDD are of complex diagnosis, difficult to treat and absorbing an increasing proportion in the health care budgets worldwide. However, recent development in modern medicine especially in genetics, proteomics, and informatics is leading to the discovery of biomarkers associated with different CDD that can be used as indicator of disease’s risk in healthy subjects. Therefore, predictive medicine is merging and medical doctors may for t…
Application of an interspecific competition model to predict the growth of Aeromonas hydrophyla on fish surfaces during refrigerated storage (Anwendu…
2007
The growth of Aeromonas hydrophila and the aerobic mesophilic plate count (APC) on gilthead seabream surfaces was evaluated during refrigerated storage (21 days). The related growth curves were compared with those obtained by a conventional third order predictive model obtaining a low agreement between observed and predicted data (Root Mean Squared Error = 1.77 for Aeromonas hydrophila and 0.64 for APC).The Lotka-Volterra interspecific competition model was used in order to calculate the degree of interaction between the two bacterial populations (beta_{Ah/APC} and beta_{APC/Ah}, respectively, the interspecific competition coefficients of APC on Aeromonas hydrophila and vice-versa). Afterwa…