Search results for "65C05"
showing 10 items of 13 documents
Uncertainty quantification on a spatial Markov-chain model for the progression of skin cancer
2019
AbstractA spatial Markov-chain model is formulated for the progression of skin cancer. The model is based on the division of the computational domain into nodal points, that can be in a binary state: either in ‘cancer state’ or in ‘non-cancer state’. The model assigns probabilities for the non-reversible transition from ‘non-cancer’ state to the ‘cancer state’ that depend on the states of the neighbouring nodes. The likelihood of transition further depends on the life burden intensity of the UV-rays that the skin is exposed to. The probabilistic nature of the process and the uncertainty in the input data is assessed by the use of Monte Carlo simulations. A good fit between experiments on mi…
Simulation of BSDEs with jumps by Wiener Chaos Expansion
2016
International audience; We present an algorithm to solve BSDEs with jumps based on Wiener Chaos Expansion and Picard's iterations. This paper extends the results given in Briand-Labart (2014) to the case of BSDEs with jumps. We get a forward scheme where the conditional expectations are easily computed thanks to chaos decomposition formulas. Concerning the error, we derive explicit bounds with respect to the number of chaos, the discretization time step and the number of Monte Carlo simulations. We also present numerical experiments. We obtain very encouraging results in terms of speed and accuracy.
From Feynman–Kac formulae to numerical stochastic homogenization in electrical impedance tomography
2016
In this paper, we use the theory of symmetric Dirichlet forms to derive Feynman–Kac formulae for the forward problem of electrical impedance tomography with possibly anisotropic, merely measurable conductivities corresponding to different electrode models on bounded Lipschitz domains. Subsequently, we employ these Feynman–Kac formulae to rigorously justify stochastic homogenization in the case of a stochastic boundary value problem arising from an inverse anomaly detection problem. Motivated by this theoretical result, we prove an estimate for the speed of convergence of the projected mean-square displacement of the underlying process which may serve as the theoretical foundation for the de…
On resampling schemes for particle filters with weakly informative observations
2022
We consider particle filters with weakly informative observations (or `potentials') relative to the latent state dynamics. The particular focus of this work is on particle filters to approximate time-discretisations of continuous-time Feynman--Kac path integral models -- a scenario that naturally arises when addressing filtering and smoothing problems in continuous time -- but our findings are indicative about weakly informative settings beyond this context too. We study the performance of different resampling schemes, such as systematic resampling, SSP (Srinivasan sampling process) and stratified resampling, as the time-discretisation becomes finer and also identify their continuous-time l…
Establishing some order amongst exact approximations of MCMCs
2016
Exact approximations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a general emerging class of sampling algorithms. One of the main ideas behind exact approximations consists of replacing intractable quantities required to run standard MCMC algorithms, such as the target probability density in a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, with estimators. Perhaps surprisingly, such approximations lead to powerful algorithms which are exact in the sense that they are guaranteed to have correct limiting distributions. In this paper we discover a general framework which allows one to compare, or order, performance measures of two implementations of such algorithms. In particular, we establish an order …
Coupled conditional backward sampling particle filter
2020
The conditional particle filter (CPF) is a promising algorithm for general hidden Markov model smoothing. Empirical evidence suggests that the variant of CPF with backward sampling (CBPF) performs well even with long time series. Previous theoretical results have not been able to demonstrate the improvement brought by backward sampling, whereas we provide rates showing that CBPF can remain effective with a fixed number of particles independent of the time horizon. Our result is based on analysis of a new coupling of two CBPFs, the coupled conditional backward sampling particle filter (CCBPF). We show that CCBPF has good stability properties in the sense that with fixed number of particles, …
Importance sampling correction versus standard averages of reversible MCMCs in terms of the asymptotic variance
2017
We establish an ordering criterion for the asymptotic variances of two consistent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators: an importance sampling (IS) estimator, based on an approximate reversible chain and subsequent IS weighting, and a standard MCMC estimator, based on an exact reversible chain. Essentially, we relax the criterion of the Peskun type covariance ordering by considering two different invariant probabilities, and obtain, in place of a strict ordering of asymptotic variances, a bound of the asymptotic variance of IS by that of the direct MCMC. Simple examples show that IS can have arbitrarily better or worse asymptotic variance than Metropolis-Hastings and delayed-acceptanc…
Exact simulation of diffusion first exit times: algorithm acceleration
2020
In order to describe or estimate different quantities related to a specific random variable, it is of prime interest to numerically generate such a variate. In specific situations, the exact generation of random variables might be either momentarily unavailable or too expensive in terms of computation time. It therefore needs to be replaced by an approximation procedure. As was previously the case, the ambitious exact simulation of exit times for diffusion processes was unreachable though it concerns many applications in different fields like mathematical finance, neuroscience or reliability. The usual way to describe exit times was to use discretization schemes, that are of course approxim…
On the stability of some controlled Markov chains and its applications to stochastic approximation with Markovian dynamic
2015
We develop a practical approach to establish the stability, that is, the recurrence in a given set, of a large class of controlled Markov chains. These processes arise in various areas of applied science and encompass important numerical methods. We show in particular how individual Lyapunov functions and associated drift conditions for the parametrized family of Markov transition probabilities and the parameter update can be combined to form Lyapunov functions for the joint process, leading to the proof of the desired stability property. Of particular interest is the fact that the approach applies even in situations where the two components of the process present a time-scale separation, w…
Exact simulation of first exit times for one-dimensional diffusion processes
2019
International audience; The simulation of exit times for diffusion processes is a challenging task since it concerns many applications in different fields like mathematical finance, neuroscience, reliability horizontal ellipsis The usual procedure is to use discretization schemes which unfortunately introduce some error in the target distribution. Our aim is to present a new algorithm which simulates exactly the exit time for one-dimensional diffusions. This acceptance-rejection algorithm requires to simulate exactly the exit time of the Brownian motion on one side and the Brownian position at a given time, constrained not to have exit before, on the other side. Crucial tools in this study …