Search results for "65C35"
showing 4 items of 4 documents
Rough McKean-Vlasov dynamics for robust ensemble Kalman filtering
2021
Motivated by the challenge of incorporating data into misspecified and multiscale dynamical models, we study a McKean-Vlasov equation that contains the data stream as a common driving rough path. This setting allows us to prove well-posedness as well as continuity with respect to the driver in an appropriate rough-path topology. The latter property is key in our subsequent development of a robust data assimilation methodology: We establish propagation of chaos for the associated interacting particle system, which in turn is suggestive of a numerical scheme that can be viewed as an extension of the ensemble Kalman filter to a rough-path framework. Finally, we discuss a data-driven method bas…
Coupled conditional backward sampling particle filter
2020
The conditional particle filter (CPF) is a promising algorithm for general hidden Markov model smoothing. Empirical evidence suggests that the variant of CPF with backward sampling (CBPF) performs well even with long time series. Previous theoretical results have not been able to demonstrate the improvement brought by backward sampling, whereas we provide rates showing that CBPF can remain effective with a fixed number of particles independent of the time horizon. Our result is based on analysis of a new coupling of two CBPFs, the coupled conditional backward sampling particle filter (CCBPF). We show that CCBPF has good stability properties in the sense that with fixed number of particles, …
On resampling schemes for particle filters with weakly informative observations
2022
We consider particle filters with weakly informative observations (or `potentials') relative to the latent state dynamics. The particular focus of this work is on particle filters to approximate time-discretisations of continuous-time Feynman--Kac path integral models -- a scenario that naturally arises when addressing filtering and smoothing problems in continuous time -- but our findings are indicative about weakly informative settings beyond this context too. We study the performance of different resampling schemes, such as systematic resampling, SSP (Srinivasan sampling process) and stratified resampling, as the time-discretisation becomes finer and also identify their continuous-time l…
Unbiased Inference for Discretely Observed Hidden Markov Model Diffusions
2021
We develop a Bayesian inference method for diffusions observed discretely and with noise, which is free of discretisation bias. Unlike existing unbiased inference methods, our method does not rely on exact simulation techniques. Instead, our method uses standard time-discretised approximations of diffusions, such as the Euler--Maruyama scheme. Our approach is based on particle marginal Metropolis--Hastings, a particle filter, randomised multilevel Monte Carlo, and importance sampling type correction of approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo. The resulting estimator leads to inference without a bias from the time-discretisation as the number of Markov chain iterations increases. We give conver…