Search results for "Average"
showing 10 items of 238 documents
Algorithmic Information Theory and Computational Complexity
2013
We present examples where theorems on complexity of computation are proved using methods in algorithmic information theory. The first example is a non-effective construction of a language for which the size of any deterministic finite automaton exceeds the size of a probabilistic finite automaton with a bounded error exponentially. The second example refers to frequency computation. Frequency computation was introduced by Rose and McNaughton in early sixties and developed by Trakhtenbrot, Kinber, Degtev, Wechsung, Hinrichs and others. A transducer is a finite-state automaton with an input and an output. We consider the possibilities of probabilistic and frequency transducers and prove sever…
Transition Function Complexity of Finite Automata
2011
State complexity of finite automata in some cases gives the same complexity value for automata which intuitively seem to have completely different complexities. In this paper we consider a new measure of descriptional complexity of finite automata -- BC-complexity. Comparison of it with the state complexity is carried out here as well as some interesting minimization properties are discussed. It is shown that minimization of the number of states can lead to a superpolynomial increase of BC-complexity.
Financial Fragility and Distress Propagation in a Network of Regions
2012
Building on previous works on business fluctuations, we model the propagation of financial distress in a network of regions, each populated by heterogeneous interacting firms and banks. In order to diversify risk, firm sell goods outside their own region and borrow from banks located there. However, this results in ties across regions which propagate financial distress across regional borders. We investigate how the average level of economic integration affects the probability of both individual and systemic failures. We find that the benefit of greater diversification is eventually offset by the effect of financial acceleration and contagion. In particular, beyond a certain level of integr…
Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle
2017
We assess the spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle using quarterly data for 20 net oil-exporting and -importing industrial countries, and employing continuous- and discrete-time duration models. We do not uncover a statistically significant difference in the average duration of booms and normal times in the housing markets of those net oil-importers and net oil-exporters. Similarly, the degree of exposure to commodity price fluctuations does not seem to significantly affect the housing market cycle. However, we find that housing booms are shorter when oil prices increase than housing busts when oil prices decrease. We also show that the net oil-importers are more vulne…
Revisiting the Profitability of Market Timing with Moving Averages
2017
In a recent empirical study by Glabadanidis (“Market Timing with Moving Averages” (2015), International Review of Finance 15(13):387–425), the author reports striking evidence of extraordinarily good performance of the moving average trading strategy. In this paper, we demonstrate that this “too good to be true” reported performance of the moving average strategy is due to simulating trading with look-ahead bias. We perform simulations without look-ahead bias and report the true performance of the moving average strategy. We find that, at best, the performance of the moving average strategy is only marginally better than that of the corresponding buy-and-hold strategy. In statistical terms,…
Pre-holiday effect, large trades and small investor behaviour
2004
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence of a pre-holiday effect in the most important stocks of the Spanish Stock Exchange which are also traded in both the New York Stock Exchange and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Our results show high abnormal returns on the trading day prior to holidays. Several tests prove that the Spanish holiday effect is not due to market calendars in the USA or Germany. Also, we prove that the pre-holiday effect is not a manifestation of other calendar anomalies. The study of different liquidity measures suggests that the pre-holiday effect could be due to the reluctance of small investors to buy on pre-holidays, which produces an increase in the a…
ON THE HETEROGENEOUS EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF OFFSHORING: IDENTIFYING PRODUCTIVITY AND DOWNSIZING CHANNELS
2014
I. INTRODUCTION For the most part of the last two decades Germany suffered from a hangover of the reunification boom, an overvalued exchange rate, high unemployment, and low growth--so The Economist famously named it the "Sick Man of Europe." At the same time, German companies were relocating production, restructuring, and offshoring. The general public associated such offshoring activities--not only in Germany--with plant closures which made the headlines and confirmed the perception that offshoring was a job killer.1 What usually does not make the news is that such downsizing effects of offshoring may be counterbalanced by productivity effects in the restructuring firm. Depending on their…
Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategies Basedon Unexpected Volatility
2014
The author documents that at the aggregate stock market level, unexpected volatility is negatively related to expected future returns, and positively related to future volatility. The author demonstrates how the predictive ability of unexpected volatility can be utilized in dynamic asset allocation strategies that deliver a substantial improvement in terms of risk-adjusted performance as compared to traditional buy-and-hold strategies. In addition, the author shows that active strategies based on unexpected volatility outperform the popular active strategy with a volatility target mechanism, and have some edge over the popular market timing strategy with a 10-month simple moving average rul…
A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility
2006
A multiplicative error model with time-varying parameters and an error term following a mixture of gamma distributions is introduced. The model is fitted to the daily realized volatility series of deutschemark/dollar and yen/dollar returns and is shown to capture the conditional distribution of these variables better than the commonly used autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model. The forecasting performance of the new model is found to be, in general, superior to that of the set of volatility models recently considered by Andersen et al. (2003, Econometrica 71, 579--625) for the same data. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.
Revisiting the Profitability of Market Timing with Moving Averages
2016
In a recent empirical study by Glabadanidis ("Market Timing With Moving Averages" (2015), International Review of Finance, Volume 15, Number 13, Pages 387-425; the paper is also available on the SSRN and has been downloaded more than 7,500 times) the author reports striking evidence of extraordinary good performance of the moving average trading strategy. In this paper we demonstrate that "too good to be true" reported performance of the moving average strategy is due to simulating the trading with look-ahead bias. We perform the simulations without look-ahead bias and report the true performance of the moving average strategy. We find that at best the performance of the moving average stra…