Search results for "BAYESIAN"
showing 10 items of 604 documents
An Ordinal Joint Model for Breast Cancer
2017
We propose a Bayesian joint model to analyze the association between longitudinal measurements of an ordinal marker and time to a relevant event. The longitudinal process is defined in terms of a proportional-odds cumulative logit model and the time-to-event process through a left-truncated Cox proportional hazards model with information of the longitudinal marker and baseline covariates. Both longitudinal and survival processes are connected by a common vector of random effects.
Adaptive design optimization: a mutual information-based approach to model discrimination in cognitive science.
2010
Discriminating among competing statistical models is a pressing issue for many experimentalists in the field of cognitive science. Resolving this issue begins with designing maximally informative experiments. To this end, the problem to be solved in adaptive design optimization is identifying experimental designs under which one can infer the underlying model in the fewest possible steps. When the models under consideration are nonlinear, as is often the case in cognitive science, this problem can be impossible to solve analytically without simplifying assumptions. However, as we show in this letter, a full solution can be found numerically with the help of a Bayesian computational trick d…
A Bayesian Learning Automaton for Solving Two-Armed Bernoulli Bandit Problems
2008
The two-armed Bernoulli bandit (TABB) problem is a classical optimization problem where an agent sequentially pulls one of two arms attached to a gambling machine, with each pull resulting either in a reward or a penalty. The reward probabilities of each arm are unknown, and thus one must balance between exploiting existing knowledge about the arms, and obtaining new information. In the last decades, several computationally efficient algorithms for tackling this problem have emerged, with learning automata (LA) being known for their ?-optimality, and confidence interval based for logarithmically growing regret. Applications include treatment selection in clinical trials, route selection in …
A methodology for the semi-automatic generation of analytical models in manufacturing
2018
International audience; Advanced analytics can enable manufacturing engineers to improve product quality and achieve equipment and resource efficiency gains using large amounts of data collected during manufacturing. Manufacturing engineers, however, often lack the expertise to apply advanced analytics, relying instead on frequent consultations with data scientists. Furthermore, collaborations between manufacturing engineers and data scientists have resulted in highly specialized applications that are not relevant to broader use cases. The manufacturing industry can benefit from the techniques applied in these collaborations if they can be generalized for a wide range of manufacturing probl…
One after the other
2017
To date, the study of psychological contracts has primarily centred on the question how retrospective evaluations of the psychological contract impact employee attitudes and behaviours, and/or focus on individual coping processes in explaining responses to breached or overfulfilled obligations. In this study, we aim to assess the extent to which sequences of breached and overfulfilled obligations impact job satisfaction and citizenship behaviour intentions. By integrating psychological contract research and theories on cognitive information processing, we formulate competing hypotheses on how sequences of breached and/or overfulfilled obligations lead to patterns of job satisfaction and cit…
Small changes, big impacts: Geographic expansion in small-scale fisheries
2020
Abstract Small-scale fisheries are an important, yet neglected, millenarian activity that has been undergoing significant changes that threaten its future. Understanding how this activity is spatially distributed and the factors that drive its use of the marine space over time can shed some light on how fishing efforts and their impacts have moved over different parts of coastal marine ecosystems. This study investigated changes to the spatial distribution of small-scale fisheries along the Brazilian equatorial region between 1994 and 2014 and the factors, from ecological to socioeconomic, that influenced this shift. Bayesian hierarchical spatial models were used together with environmental…
Reply to Holliday and Boslough et al.: Synchroneity of widespread Bayesian-modeled ages supports Younger Dryas impact hypothesis
2015
Holliday (1) rejects age-depth models for the Younger Dryas boundary layer (YDB) in Kennett et al. (2), claiming that they are incorrect for several reasons, including age reversals, high age uncertainties, and use of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. These same claims previously were presented in Meltzer et al. (3) and were discussed and refuted in Kennett et al. (2). These criticisms apply to nearly all dated archaeological and geological sequences, including the Odessa meteorite impact crater, where paradoxically, Holliday et al. (4) modeled an impact age using OSL dating (>70% of dates used) with large uncertainties (to >6,000 y) and age reversals (>40% of dates are revers…
Surrogate-assisted evolutionary biobjective optimization for objectives with non-uniform latencies
2018
We consider multiobjective optimization problems where objective functions have different (or heterogeneous) evaluation times or latencies. This is of great relevance for (computationally) expensive multiobjective optimization as there is no reason to assume that all objective functions should take an equal amount of time to be evaluated (particularly when objectives are evaluated separately). To cope with such problems, we propose a variation of the Kriging-assisted reference vector guided evolutionary algorithm (K-RVEA) called heterogeneous K-RVEA (short HK-RVEA). This algorithm is a merger of two main concepts designed to account for different latencies: A single-objective evolutionary a…
A Surrogate-assisted Reference Vector Guided Evolutionary Algorithm for Computationally Expensive Many-objective Optimization
2018
We propose a surrogate-assisted reference vector guided evolutionary algorithm for computationally expensive optimization problems with more than three objectives. The proposed algorithm is based on a recently developed evolutionary algorithm for many-objective optimization that relies on a set of adaptive reference vectors for selection. The proposed surrogateassisted evolutionary algorithm uses Kriging to approximate each objective function to reduce the computational cost. In managing the Kriging models, the algorithm focuses on the balance of diversity and convergence by making use of the uncertainty information in the approximated objective values given by the Kriging models, the distr…
Flexible Data Driven Inventory Management with Interactive Multiobjective Lot Size Optimization
2021
We study data-driven decision support and formalise a path from data to decision making. We focus on lot sizing in inventory management with stochastic demand and propose an interactive multi-objective optimisation approach. We forecast demand with a Bayesian model, which is based on sales data. After identifying relevant objectives relying on the demand model, we formulate an optimisation problem to determine lot sizes for multiple future time periods. Our approach combines different interactive multi-objective optimisation methods for finding the best balance among the objectives. For that, a decision maker with substance knowledge directs the solution process with one’s preference inform…