Search results for "Bay"
showing 10 items of 1187 documents
Multivariate exponential smoothing: A Bayesian forecast approach based on simulation
2009
This paper deals with the prediction of time series with correlated errors at each time point using a Bayesian forecast approach based on the multivariate Holt-Winters model. Assuming that each of the univariate time series comes from the univariate Holt-Winters model, all of them sharing a common structure, the multivariate Holt-Winters model can be formulated as a traditional multivariate regression model. This formulation facilitates obtaining the posterior distribution of the model parameters, which is not analytically tractable: simulation is needed. An acceptance sampling procedure is used in order to obtain a sample from this posterior distribution. Using Monte Carlo integration the …
BEM-Based Magnetic Field Reconstruction by Ensemble Kálmán Filtering
2022
Abstract Magnetic fields generated by normal or superconducting electromagnets are used to guide and focus particle beams in storage rings, synchrotron light sources, mass spectrometers, and beamlines for radiotherapy. The accurate determination of the magnetic field by measurement is critical for the prediction of the particle beam trajectory and hence the design of the accelerator complex. In this context, state-of-the-art numerical field computation makes use of boundary-element methods (BEM) to express the magnetic field. This enables the accurate computation of higher-order partial derivatives and local expansions of magnetic potentials used in efficient numerical codes for particle tr…
Classification and retrieval on macroinvertebrate image databases
2011
Aquatic ecosystems are continuously threatened by a growing number of human induced changes. Macroinvertebrate biomonitoring is particularly efficient in pinpointing the cause-effect structure between slow and subtle changes and their detrimental consequences in aquatic ecosystems. The greatest obstacle to implementing efficient biomonitoring is currently the cost-intensive human expert taxonomic identification of samples. While there is evidence that automated recognition techniques can match human taxa identification accuracy at greatly reduced costs, so far the development of automated identification techniques for aquatic organisms has been minimal. In this paper, we focus on advancing …
A Novel Bayesian Network Based Scheme for Finding the Optimal Solution to Stochastic Online Equi-partitioning Problems
2014
A number of intriguing decision scenarios, such as order picking, revolve around partitioning a collection of objects so as to optimize some application specific objective function. In its general form, this problem is referred to as the Object Partitioning Problem (OOP), known to be NP-hard. We here consider a variant of OPP, namely the Stochastic Online Equi-Partitioning Problem (SO-EPP). In SO-EPP, objects arrive sequentially, in pairs. The relationship between the arriving object pairs is stochastic: They belong to the same partition with probability p. From a history of object arrivals, the goal is to predict which objects will appear together in future arrivals. As an additional compl…
Trace elements in shells of common gastropods in the near vicinity of a natural CO<sub>2</sub> vent: no evidence of pH-de…
2014
Abstract. There is concern that the use of natural volcanic CO2 vents as analogs for studies of the impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms are biased due to physiochemical influences other than seawater pH alone. One issue that has been raised is whether potentially harmful trace elements in sediments that are rendered more soluble and labile in low pH environments are made more bioavailable, and sequestered in the local flora and fauna at harmful levels. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, we analyzed the concentrations of trace elements in shells (an established proxy for tissues) of four species of gastropods (two limpets, a topshell and a whelk) collected from three sites …
Organische und kalkige Dinoflagellaten-Zysten aus den Böhlen-Schichten (Rupelium/Oligozän) der Leipziger Bucht (NW-Sachsen/Deutschland)
1996
Rupelian organic-walled and calcareous dinoflagellate cysts from two profiles (brown coal open cast minings Cospuden and Zwenkau) in the Bohlen-Schichten of the Leipzig Bay (E-Germany) are discussed. The sediments of these profiles were deposited in literal to sublitoral areas. The dinoflagellate cysts of Cospuden characterize a nearshore environment, while the associations of Zwenkau are more typical for offshore conditions.
The structure of parasite component communities in brackish water fishes of the northeastern Baltic Sea
2001
We used nestedness analysis to seek non-random patterns in the structure of component communities of metazoan parasites collected from 31 sympatric fish species from the northeastern Bothnian Bay, the most oligohaline area of the Baltic Sea. Only 8 marine parasite species were found among the 63 species recorded, although some marine fish species reproduce in the bay and others occasionally visit the area. Marine parasite species can utilize both freshwater and marine fish species as intermediate or final hosts, and marine fish can harbour freshwater parasite species. This exchange of parasite species between marine and freshwater fish has probably resulted from ecological factors acting ov…
The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000-2018: a geospatial analysis.
2022
Abstract Background Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission. Methods A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000–2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates o…
A statistical approach to an individualized prognostic index (IPI) for breast cancer survivability
1983
The authors present 611 and 262 case histories of patients with breast cancer, studied 5 and 10 years after mastectomy, respectively; 27 clinical and 10 histologic parameters were considered for the statistical evaluation, in order to define an Individualized Prognostic Index (IPI) for breast cancer survivability. The probability of survival was estimated by a Bayesian formula using selected prognostic parameters, these parameters were placed in order of discriminant resolution and, for the calculation of the IPI, were selected according to their importance, as it follows: 5 years after surgery: percent affected nodules, dermal infiltration, TNM phase, Scarff-Bloom index and evolutive outbr…
Cost-effectiveness analysis of the first-line EGFR-TKIs in patients with advanced EGFR-mutated non-small-cell lung cancer.
2021
To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of first-line treatments, such as erlotinib, gefitinib, afatinib, dacomitinib, and osimertinib, for patients diagnosed with stage IIIB/IV NSCLC harboring EGFR mutations.A partitioned survival model was developed to estimate quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. Two Bayesian NMAs were performed independently, by using the polynomial fraction method to fit Kaplan-Meier curves for overall survival and progression-free survival. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the uncertainty.The ICER was calculated for the fou…