Search results for "Bayes Theorem"
showing 10 items of 214 documents
Temporal speciation pattern in the western Mediterranean genus Tudorella P. Fischer, 1885 (Gastropoda, Pomatiidae) supports the Tyrrhenian vicariance…
2009
The land snail genus Tudorella shows a peculiar disjunct distribution around the western Mediterranean coasts. Despite high phenotypic plasticity, only two species with a disputed number of subspecific taxa are currently recognised. We delimited the species with mitochondrial (COI & 16S) and nuclear (ITS-1) markers based on the unified species concept and suggested that there are eight species in the genus, two of them currently undescribed. Applying Bayesian phylogenetic model selection, we tested four different biogeographic hypotheses that could be causal for the current distribution pattern of extant Tudorella species. A scenario involving vicariance events resulting from the repeated s…
Abundance and Distribution Patterns of Thunnus albacares in Isla del Coco National Park through Predictive Habitat Suitability Models
2016
Information on the distribution and habitat preferences of ecologically and commercially important species is essential for their management and protection. This is especially important as climate change, pollution, and overfishing change the structure and functioning of pelagic ecosystems. In this study, we used Bayesian hierarchical spatial-temporal models to map the Essential Fish Habitats of the Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the waters around Isla del Coco National Park, Pacific Costa Rica, based on independent underwater observations from 1993 to 2013. We assessed if observed changes in the distribution and abundance of this species are related with habitat characteristics, fis…
BELM: Bayesian Extreme Learning Machine
2011
The theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) has become very popular on the last few years. ELM is a new approach for learning the parameters of the hidden layers of a multilayer neural network (as the multilayer perceptron or the radial basis function neural network). Its main advantage is the lower computational cost, which is especially relevant when dealing with many patterns defined in a high-dimensional space. This brief proposes a bayesian approach to ELM, which presents some advantages over other approaches: it allows the introduction of a priori knowledge; obtains the confidence intervals (CIs) without the need of applying methods that are computationally intensive, e.g., bootstrap…
A Bayesian unified framework for risk estimation and cluster identification in small area health data analysis.
2020
Many statistical models have been proposed to analyse small area disease data with the aim of describing spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously allows for risk estimation and cluster identification. Our model formulation assumes that there is an unknown number of risk classes and small areas are assigned to a risk class by means of independent allocation variables. Therefore, areas within each cluster are assumed to share a common risk but they may be geographically separated. The posterior distribution of the parameter representing the number of risk classes is estimated using a novel procedure that combines its prior …
On general conditional prevision assessments
2009
In this paper we consider general conditional random quantities of the kind $X|Y$, where $X$ and $Y$ are finite discrete random quantities. Then, we introduce the notion of coherence for conditional prevision assessments on finite families of general conditional random quantities. Moreover, we give a compound prevision theorem and we examine the relation between the previsions of $X|Y$ and $Y|X$. Then, we give some results on random gains and, by a suitable alternative theorem, we obtain a characterization of coherence. We also propose an algorithm for the checking of coherence. Finally, we briefly examine the case of imprecise conditional prevision assessments by introducing the notions of…
Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990–2019: an analysis of data from the G…
2022
Background: Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.Methods: We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure–response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regress…
Bone Fusion in Normal and Pathological Development is Constrained by the Network Architecture of the Human Skull
2016
The premature fusion of cranial bones, craniosynostosis, affects the correct development of the skull producing morphological malformations in newborns. To assess the susceptibility of each craniofacial articulation to close prematurely, we used a network model of the skull to quantify the link reliability (an index based on stochastic block modeling and Bayesian inference) of each articulation. We show that, of the 93 human skull articulations at birth, the few articulations that are associated with nonsyndromic craniosynostosis conditions have statistically significant lower reliability scores than the others. In a similar way, articulations that close during the normal postnatal developm…
A Fatty Acid Based Bayesian Approach for Inferring Diet in Aquatic Consumers
2015
We modified the stable isotope mixing model MixSIR to infer primary producer contributions to consumer diets based on their fatty acid composition. To parameterize the algorithm, we generated a 'consumer-resource library' of FA signatures of Daphnia fed different algal diets, using 34 feeding trials representing diverse phytoplankton lineages. This library corresponds to the resource or producer file in classic Bayesian mixing models such as MixSIR or SIAR. Because this library is based on the FA profiles of zooplankton consuming known diets, and not the FA profiles of algae directly, trophic modification of consumer lipids is directly accounted for. To test the model, we simulated hypothet…
Environmental distribution of prokaryotic taxa
2010
14 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, 10 additional files avalaible [http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/supplementary/1471-2180-10- 85-S10.PDF ]
The rise and the fall of a Pseudomonas aeruginosa endemic lineage in a hospital
2021
The biological features that allow a pathogen to survive in the hospital environment are mostly unknown. The extinction of bacterial epidemics in hospitals is mostly attributed to changes in medical practice, including infection control, but the role of bacterial adaptation has never been documented. We analysed a collection of Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates belonging to the Besançon Epidemic Strain (BES), responsible for a 12year nosocomial outbreak, using a genotype-to-phenotype approach. Bayesian analysis estimated the emergence of the clone in the hospital 5 years before its opening, during the creation of its water distribution network made of copper. BES survived better than the refe…