Search results for "Bayes estimator"
showing 6 items of 16 documents
Bayesian models for data missing not at random in health examination surveys
2018
In epidemiological surveys, data missing not at random (MNAR) due to survey nonresponse may potentially lead to a bias in the risk factor estimates. We propose an approach based on Bayesian data augmentation and survival modelling to reduce the nonresponse bias. The approach requires additional information based on follow-up data. We present a case study of smoking prevalence using FINRISK data collected between 1972 and 2007 with a follow-up to the end of 2012 and compare it to other commonly applied missing at random (MAR) imputation approaches. A simulation experiment is carried out to study the validity of the approaches. Our approach appears to reduce the nonresponse bias substantially…
Bayesian analysis of a disability model for lung cancer survival
2016
Bayesian reasoning, survival analysis and multi-state models are used to assess survival times for Stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer patients and the evolution of the disease over time. Bayesian estimation is done using minimum informative priors for the Weibull regression survival model, leading to an automatic inferential procedure. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been used for approximating posterior distributions and the Bayesian information criterion has been considered for covariate selection. In particular, the posterior distribution of the transition probabilities, resulting from the multi-state model, constitutes a very interesting tool which could be useful to help oncolog…
Diseño muestral optimo en el caso de no respuesta
1982
Discussed here are several aspects of a simple model for dealing with nonresponse. The model is, in a sense, a sequential one and is developed from a Bayesian decision theory point of view. Within this framework we examine how formalization and combination of one's opinions, and past experience concerning the proportion of nonrespondents, the differences and relations between respondents and nonrespondents, the cost of obtaining information from nonrespondents, etc. We examine the decisions concerning the selection of sampling size m and n, both in the nonrespondent population and in the overall population
A Dominance Variant Under the Multi-Unidimensional Pairwise-Preference Framework: Model Formulation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation.
2018
Forced-choice questionnaires have been proposed as a way to control some response biases associated with traditional questionnaire formats (e.g., Likert-type scales). Whereas classical scoring methods have issues of ipsativity, item response theory (IRT) methods have been claimed to accurately account for the latent trait structure of these instruments. In this article, the authors propose the multi-unidimensional pairwise preference two-parameter logistic (MUPP-2PL) model, a variant within Stark, Chernyshenko, and Drasgow’s MUPP framework for items that are assumed to fit a dominance model. They also introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure for estimating the model’s paramete…
Bayesian Estimation of Political Transition Matrices
1994
A decision framework is used to propose a procedure designed to estimate the reallocation of the vote of each individual party between two consecutive political elections, given the results of the elections, the information provided by a sample survey, and some assumptions on the hierarchical structure of the population.
A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850
2020
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finlands population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual popula…