Search results for "Bayes' theorem"
showing 10 items of 43 documents
Bayesian Markov switching models for the early detection of influenza epidemics
2008
The early detection of outbreaks of diseases is one of the most challenging objectives of epidemiological surveillance systems. In this paper, a Markov switching model is introduced to determine the epidemic and non-epidemic periods from influenza surveillance data: the process of differenced incidence rates is modelled either with a first-order autoregressive process or with a Gaussian white-noise process depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or in a non-epidemic phase. The transition between phases of the disease is modelled as a Markovian process. Bayesian inference is carried out on the former model to detect influenza epidemics at the very moment of their onset. Moreover, t…
Bayesian joint ordinal and survival modeling for breast cancer risk assessment
2016
We propose a joint model to analyze the structure and intensity of the association between longitudinal measurements of an ordinal marker and time to a relevant event. The longitudinal process is defined in terms of a proportional-odds cumulative logit model. Time-to-event is modeled through a left-truncated proportionalhazards model, which incorporates information of the longitudinal marker as well as baseline covariates. Both longitudinal and survival processes are connected by means of a common vector of random effects. General inferences are discussed under the Bayesian approach and include the posterior distribution of the probabilities associated to each longitudinal category and the …
An autoregressive approach to spatio-temporal disease mapping
2007
Disease mapping has been a very active research field during recent years. Nevertheless, time trends in risks have been ignored in most of these studies, yet they can provide information with a very high epidemiological value. Lately, several spatio-temporal models have been proposed, either based on a parametric description of time trends, on independent risk estimates for every period, or on the definition of the joint covariance matrix for all the periods as a Kronecker product of matrices. The following paper offers an autoregressive approach to spatio-temporal disease mapping by fusing ideas from autoregressive time series in order to link information in time and by spatial modelling t…
Bayesian analysis of a disability model for lung cancer survival
2016
Bayesian reasoning, survival analysis and multi-state models are used to assess survival times for Stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer patients and the evolution of the disease over time. Bayesian estimation is done using minimum informative priors for the Weibull regression survival model, leading to an automatic inferential procedure. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been used for approximating posterior distributions and the Bayesian information criterion has been considered for covariate selection. In particular, the posterior distribution of the transition probabilities, resulting from the multi-state model, constitutes a very interesting tool which could be useful to help oncolog…
Online Sparse Collapsed Hybrid Variational-Gibbs Algorithm for Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Topic Models
2017
Topic models for text analysis are most commonly trained using either Gibbs sampling or variational Bayes. Recently, hybrid variational-Gibbs algorithms have been found to combine the best of both worlds. Variational algorithms are fast to converge and more efficient for inference on new documents. Gibbs sampling enables sparse updates since each token is only associated with one topic instead of a distribution over all topics. Additionally, Gibbs sampling is unbiased. Although Gibbs sampling takes longer to converge, it is guaranteed to arrive at the true posterior after infinitely many iterations. By combining the two methods it is possible to reduce the bias of variational methods while …
Ultimate Order Statistics-Based Prototype Reduction Schemes
2013
Published version of a chapter in the book: AI 2013: Advances in Artificial Intelligence. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03680-9_42 The objective of Prototype Reduction Schemes (PRSs) and Border Identification (BI) algorithms is to reduce the number of training vectors, while simultaneously attempting to guarantee that the classifier built on the reduced design set performs as well, or nearly as well, as the classifier built on the original design set. In this paper, we shall push the limit on the field of PRSs to see if we can obtain a classification accuracy comparable to the optimal, by condensing the information in the data set into a single tr…
On achieving near-optimal “Anti-Bayesian” Order Statistics-Based classification fora asymmetric exponential distributions
2013
Published version of a Chapter in the book: Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40261-6_44 This paper considers the use of Order Statistics (OS) in the theory of Pattern Recognition (PR). The pioneering work on using OS for classification was presented in [1] for the Uniform distribution, where it was shown that optimal PR can be achieved in a counter-intuitive manner, diametrically opposed to the Bayesian paradigm, i.e., by comparing the testing sample to a few samples distant from the mean - which is distinct from the optimal Bayesian paradigm. In [2], we showed that the results could be extended for a few sym…
“Anti-Bayesian” parametric pattern classification using order statistics criteria for some members of the exponential family
2013
This paper submits a comprehensive report of the use of order statistics (OS) for parametric pattern recognition (PR) for various distributions within the exponential family. Although the field of parametric PR has been thoroughly studied for over five decades, the use of the OS of the distributions to achieve this has not been reported. The pioneering work on using OS for classification was presented earlier for the uniform distribution and for some members of the exponential family, where it was shown that optimal PR can be achieved in a counter-intuitive manner, diametrically opposed to the Bayesian paradigm, i.e., by comparing the testing sample to a few samples distant from the mean. A…
Non-Technological Aspects on Web Searching Success
2008
This paper studies the influence of social, cultural and emotional background of typical Web users into the web searching process. Several variables, describing such aspects, are represented and statistically analyzed with well known clustering and classifying algorithms such, as COBWEB, J48, Bayes classification, and Correspondence analysis. Results indicate that the efficiency of the complete process of Information Retrieval will not be fully understood without considering subjectivity and personality facts.
Ensemble feature selection with the simple Bayesian classification
2003
Abstract A popular method for creating an accurate classifier from a set of training data is to build several classifiers, and then to combine their predictions. The ensembles of simple Bayesian classifiers have traditionally not been a focus of research. One way to generate an ensemble of accurate and diverse simple Bayesian classifiers is to use different feature subsets generated with the random subspace method. In this case, the ensemble consists of multiple classifiers constructed by randomly selecting feature subsets, that is, classifiers constructed in randomly chosen subspaces. In this paper, we present an algorithm for building ensembles of simple Bayesian classifiers in random sub…