Search results for "Bayes"
showing 10 items of 847 documents
Examining nonstationarity in the recruitment dynamics of fishes using Bayesian change point analysis
2017
Marine ecosystems can undergo regime shifts, which result in nonstationarity in the dynamics of the fish populations inhabiting them. The assumption of time-invariant parameters in stock–recruitment models can lead to severe errors when forecasting renewal ability of stocks that experience shifts in their recruitment dynamics. We present a novel method for fitting stock–recruitment models using the Bayesian online change point detection algorithm, which is able to cope with sudden changes in the model parameters. We validate our method using simulations and apply it to empirical data of four demersal fishes in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. We show that all of the stocks have experience…
Toward reconstructing the evolution of advanced moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera: Ditrysia): an initial molecular study
2009
AbstractBackgroundIn the mega-diverse insect order Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths; 165,000 described species), deeper relationships are little understood within the clade Ditrysia, to which 98% of the species belong. To begin addressing this problem, we tested the ability of five protein-coding nuclear genes (6.7 kb total), and character subsets therein, to resolve relationships among 123 species representing 27 (of 33) superfamilies and 55 (of 100) families of Ditrysia under maximum likelihood analysis.ResultsOur trees show broad concordance with previous morphological hypotheses of ditrysian phylogeny, although most relationships among superfamilies are weakly supported. There are als…
Thompson Sampling Based Active Learning in Probabilistic Programs with Application to Travel Time Estimation
2019
The pertinent problem of Traveling Time Estimation (TTE) is to estimate the travel time, given a start location and a destination, solely based on the coordinates of the points under consideration. This is typically solved by fitting a function based on a sequence of observations. However, it can be expensive or slow to obtain labeled data or measurements to calibrate the estimation function. Active Learning tries to alleviate this problem by actively selecting samples that minimize the total number of samples needed to do accurate inference. Probabilistic Programming Languages (PPL) give us the opportunities to apply powerful Bayesian inference to model problems that involve uncertainties.…
Phylogeography and Molecular Evolution of Potato virus Y
2012
Potato virus Y (PVY) is an important plant pathogen, whose host range includes economically important crops such as potato, tobacco, tomato, and pepper. PVY presents three main strains (PVYO, PVYN and PVYC) and several recombinant forms. PVY has a worldwide distribution, yet the mechanisms that promote and maintain its population structure and genetic diversity are still unclear. In this study, we used a pool of 77 complete PVY genomes from isolates collected worldwide. After removing the effect of recombination in our data set, we used Bayesian techniques to study the influence of geography and host species in both PVY population structure and dynamics. We have also performed selection and…
The past and the present in decision-making: the use of conspecific and heterospecific cues in nest site selection
2014
International audience; Nest site selection significantly affects fitness, so adaptations for assessment of the qualities of available sites are expected. The assessment may be based on personal or social information, the latter referring to the observed location and performance of both conspecific and heterospecific individuals. Contrary to large-scale breeding habitat selection, small-scale nest site selection within habitat patches is insufficiently understood. We analyzed nest site selection in the migratory Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis in relation to present and past cues provided by conspecifics and by resident tits within habitat patches by using long-term data. Collared F…
Comparison of Bayesian and numerical optimization-based diet estimation on herbivorous zooplankton
2020
Consumer diet estimation with biotracer-based mixing models provides valuable information about trophic interactions and the dynamics of complex ecosystems. Here, we assessed the performance of four Bayesian and three numerical optimization-based diet estimation methods for estimating the diet composition of herbivorous zooplankton using consumer fatty acid (FA) profiles and resource library consisting of the results of homogeneous diet feeding experiments. The method performance was evaluated in terms of absolute errors, central probability interval checks, the success in identifying the primary resource in the diet, and the ability to detect the absence of resources in the diet. Despite …
Value of information in multiple criteria decision making: an application to forest conservation
2019
Abstract Developing environmental conservation plans involves assessing trade-offs between the benefits and costs of conservation. The benefits of conservation can be established with ecological inventories or estimated based on previously collected information. Conducting ecological inventories can be costly, and the additional information may not justify these costs. To clarify the value of these inventories, we investigate the multiple criteria value of information associated with the acquisition of improved ecological data. This information can be useful when informing the decision maker to acquire better information. We extend the concept of the value of information to a multiple crite…
Potential of using data assimilation to support forest planning
2017
Uncertainty in forest information typically results in economic and ecological losses as a consequence of suboptimal management decisions. Several techniques have been proposed to handle such uncertainties. However, these techniques are often complex and costly. Data assimilation (DA) has recently been advocated as a tool that may reduce the uncertainty, thereby improving the quality of forest planning results. It offers an opportunity to make use of all new sources of information in a systematic way and thus provides more accurate and up-to-date information to forest planning. In this study, we refer to literature on handling uncertainties in forest planning, as well as related literature…
Interspecific interactions influence contrasting spatial genetic structures in two closely related damselfly species
2014
Spatial genetic structure (SGS) is largely determined by colonization history, landscape and ecological characteristics of the species. Therefore, sympatric and ecologically similar species are expected to exhibit similar SGSs, potentially enabling prediction of the SGS of one species from that of another. On the other hand, due to interspecific interactions, ecologically similar species could have different SGSs. We explored the SGSs of the closely related Calopteryx splendens and Calopteryx virgo within Finland and related the genetic patterns to characteristics of the sampling localities. We observed different SGSs for the two species. Genetic differentiation even within short distances …
Incorporating Biotic Information in Species Distribution Models: A Coregionalized Approach
2021
In this work, we discuss the use of a methodological approach for modelling spatial relationships among species by means of a Bayesian spatial coregionalized model. Inference and prediction is performed using the integrated nested Laplace approximation methodology to reduce the computational burden. We illustrate the performance of the coregionalized model in species interaction scenarios using both simulated and real data. The simulation demonstrates the better predictive performance of the coregionalized model with respect to the univariate models. The case study focus on the spatial distribution of a prey species, the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), and one of its predator spe…