Search results for "Business cycle"
showing 10 items of 90 documents
“The Same Staff Can Be Enough”. Employers’ Resilience Strategies in Recruitment Decisions
2018
Studies on resilience have sprung from a need to understand the survival strategies of organizations when faced with the emergence of unexpected, potentially destructive and negative events in the lives of the organizations. This article, on the other hand, intends to highlight organizational resilience when confronted with unexpected positive events, seldom considered by such studies. This is the well-known macroeconomic phenomenon of the time lag between economic growth and labor demand at the moment that a regressive economic cycle is reversed. With which strategies do companies, in the face of such an event, transform a resilient attitude into real resilient behavior? Five strategies of…
Banking Competition, Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Stability
2012
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with an imperfectly competitive bank-loans market and collateral constraints that tie investors credit capacity to the value of their real estate holdings. Banks set optimal lending rates taking into account the effects of their price policies on their market share and on the volume of funds demanded by each customer. Lending margins have a significant effect on aggregate variables. Over the long run, fostering banking competition increases total consumption and output by triggering a reallocation of available collateral towards investors. However, as regards the short-run dynamics, we find that most macroeconomic variables are more responsive …
Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro Area
2006
We present maximum likelihood estimates of a small scale dynamic general equilibrium model for the Eurozone. We pay special attention to the role of money, both through its direct effect upon private agents’ decisions and as a component of the monetary policy rule. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we find no direct effect of money upon inflation and output but money growth plays a significant role in the interest rate rule. Second, money demand shocks mainly help to forecast real balances while real shocks explain the bulk of price, output and interest rates fluctuations. Third, the estimated model predicts sensible conditional correlations among those variables both to dema…
The Stabilizing Role of Government Size
2007
This paper presents an analysis of how alternative models of the business cycle can replicate the stylized fact that large governments are associated with less volatile economies. Our analysis shows that adding nominal rigidities and costs of capital adjustment to an otherwise standard RBC model can generate a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of output. However, in the model, we find that the stabilizing effect is only due to a composition effect and it is not present when we look at the volatility of private output. Given that empirically we also observe a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of consumption, we modify the model by i…
Stock Market Bubbles and Monetary Policy Effectiveness
2016
In this paper we provide evidence on the response of stock prices to monetary policy shocks, but conditioning the analysis to the direction of the monetary policy surprises and to the business conditions. We follow a two steps approach: First we use the SVAR approach to identify monetary policy shocks; and then we conduct regression analyses of contemporary stock market returns and monetary policy shocks in order to extract the implicit relationship between these variables in the four scenarios defined. Our results show that monetary policy do not impact on stock market returns in a significant form in the scenario defined by a positive shock and an expansion period, coinciding the poor eff…
The Market Price of Credit Risk and Economic States
2015
This paper proposes a market-wide credit risk factor for the US stock market and investigates its properties that are dependent on economic conditions. The market price of credit risk is found to be statistically significantly negative, supporting earlier studies. However, a sample-split analysis reveals that this negative pay-off is non-existent in a later subsample, indicating that the credit risk puzzle is based on temporary mispricing related to the earlier subsample. Further investigation shows that mispricing in the earlier period was mainly driven by positive pay-offs of low credit risk firms, while high credit risk firms did not generate significant returns in any of the sub-periods.
Business Cycle Affiliations in the Context of European Integration
2003
We study affiliations for the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with Germany and the US, using various business cycle measures derived from quarterly real GDP. These measures are Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filtered series, together with annual and quarterly growth rates. Using rolling contemporaneous and maximum (over a short lead/lag interval) correlations, we document increasing correlations of EMU countries with Germany, with these typically being largest during the 1990s. We also document a strong leading role for the US in relation to these countries in the period since 1993, thereby correcting the fallacy that the European business cycle was disjoint fr…
Importance of balance sheet composition in stress test estimates
2019
The stress tests are based on macroeconomic variables for the estimations of the results. However, there are other factors that may influence them. This paper studies the influence of the balance sheet structure in the NPL and the loss caused by the NPL using econometric models. The objective is to research how they affect the aggregates in the balance sheet to the delay in payment and the the provision for impairment, distinguishing these effects according to the economic cycle, so that can be applied to the stress test. The results show that the Balance sheet structure is important in delinquency and losses caused by it, especially in respect of stockholders’ funds, ECB resources and …
Are business cycles asymmetric? Some European evidence
1997
Economic thought has ofien regal'ded business cycles as asymmetric. This papel' examines the existence of asymmetries over the business cycle in three European countries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. To analyze this issue, industrial production in these countries from 1957 to 1994 is examined, and quarterly contractions and expansions in this variable are compared. The results obtained with both parametric and nonparametric methods allow the existence of asymmetries in these countries to be questioned. El pensamiento económico ha considerado frecuentemente que los ciclos económicos son de naturaleza asimétrica. Este trabajo examina la existencia de asimetrías en los ciclos económ…
The macroeconomic effects of electricity-sector privatization
2021
Abstract We examine the macroeconomic effects of privatizing the ownership structure of the electricity market, using a novel indicator of privatization which covers 90 advanced, emerging market, and developing economies, since 1974. Privatization reforms, on average, improve outcomes in the provision of electricity and have positive macroeconomic effects: output and employment increase in the years following electricity-sector privatization reforms. Reforms are also associated also with an increase in income inequality, but the effects are small, on average. These impacts vary according to the business cycle, quality of institutions, and a country's development status, with macroeconomic a…