Search results for "Business cycle"
showing 10 items of 90 documents
Potential Growth and Business Cycle in the Spanish Economy: Implications for Fiscal Policy
2007
An accurately estimation of the cyclical position of an economy is a necessary condition for the success of fiscal stabilisation policies. In this paper we show that the estimation of the output gap by means of decomposing a production function produces similar results to univariate and multivariate methods, increasing their robustness and allowing us to conclude that most of the information on the economic cycle is included in the cyclical component of the unemployment rate. The results also indicate that there is reduced uncertainty about the periods when the Spanish economy has clearly been in a deep recession or in a sharp expansion. These periods have been limited and of relatively sho…
Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union
2009
This paper analyses sectoral business cycle synchronization in an enlarged European Union using annual data for the period 1980-2005. In particular, we try to identify which sector for each country is driving the aggregate output business cycle synchronization. Overall, the sectors that provide the most relevant contribution are Industry, Building and Construction, and Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry. In contrast, the Services sector, the largest one in terms of valued added share, shows a relative low business cycle synchronization and volatility, implying that it contributes only marginally to the aggregate output business cycle synchronization.
BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION BETWEEN ROMANIA AND THE EURO AREA. A FRESH LOOK IN VIEW OF THE RECENT CRISIS
2012
This paper examines the degree of business cycles synchronization between Romania and the Euro area, by using Germany as a benchmark for the area economic cycle. The period of the study is 2000 - 2011, with a special emphasis on the recent economic and financial crisis. Using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, we find important, but decreasing correlations in times of crisis in the level of GDP. Furthermore, the analysis by GDP components reveals that private consumption remains the least correlated with the Euro area, while foreign trade is highly correlated and its synchronization even increased during the recent crisis.
Mayors, Using Cultural Expenditure in An Opportunistic Way Improves the Chances of Re-Election, but Do Not Do It: Revisiting Political Budget Cycles
2020
This article analyzes whether expenditure on the provision of merit goods, culture, health, education, and sports, by local governments, in medium-sized cities (between 20,000 and 100,000 inhabitants) is tied to the electoral cycle
Strategic agility explanations for managing franchising expansion during economic cycles
2017
Purpose This paper aims to demonstrate how franchising firms can manage system expansion by weathering the economic effects of a location (i.e. country-level economic cycles) by shifting their resources. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a comprehensive database of 151 US hybrid franchising organizations, including observations for the years between 2001 and 2008. Data analysis is conducted with count model panel data with a Poisson distribution. Findings The model reveals a curvilinear U-shaped relationship between location (i.e. economic cycles) and franchising expansion. Originality/value This study contributes to competitiveness literature by showing how franchising firms res…
Journal of Economics and Management Research, Vol. 4/5
2016
Differences in wage determination in the Eurozone: A challenge to the resilience of the common currency
2019
Abstract Different developments in wages and unit labor costs across countries can reduce the synchronization of business cycles within a currency area and therefore be a potential source of asymmetric shocks and/or asymmetric response to a common shock. In this paper, we use novel econometric methods to identify differences and similarities in wage determination across Eurozone countries. Results show that wages have different determinants across euro area countries, among which two relatively distinct groups can be identified. In particular, wages in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Finland behave more similarly, are less sticky and respond more to macroeconomic …
Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity
2018
Recently introduced measures for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) included in the data from 1997 - 2016 have a role in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity for both the euro area and the UK economies. The inclusion of EPU measures, either for the US, the UK or for overall European economies, improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information, especially for the period before the 2008 global crisis. However, during and after the crisis period, the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance the most compared to an AR-benchmark model. Hence, the EPU informatio…
The roles of job and worker restructuring in aggregate wage growth dynamics
2019
We propose an approach for measuring and analyzing the dynamics of the standard aggregate wage growth of macro statistics with micro data. Our method decomposes the aggregate wage growth into the wage growth of job stayers and into various terms related to job and worker restructuring. This method produces explicit expressions with clear interpretations for the various restructuring components. Using comprehensive longitudinal employer–employee data, we study how job and worker restructuring influence the aggregate wage growth and its cyclicality. The results highlight the importance of drawing a sharp distinction between job and worker restructuring in the analysis of aggregate wage growth…