Search results for "Clone"
showing 10 items of 312 documents
Sources of water vapour contributing to the Elbe flood in August 2002-A tagging study in a mesoscale model
2009
In this study we investigate the contribution of various moisture sources to the Elbe flood that occurred in Central Europe during August 2002. An 8-day simulation with the mesoscale numerical weather prediction model CHRM, including newly implemented water vapour tracers, has been performed. According to the simulation, rather than drawing moisture from one single dominant source region, water vapour from widely separated moisture sources contributed to the extreme precipitation in the most affected area, notably at distinct, subsequent periods of time, and each in significant amounts. These moisture sources include the Atlantic and Mediterranean ocean areas inside the model domain, evapot…
Ozone mini-holes over Valencia (Spain) and their influence on the UV erythemal radiation
2010
Low ozone level episodes (also known as mini-holes) have been analysed over Valencia, Spain, during the period from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2007. In this study, 24 episodes, lasting 1 or 2 days each, were detected. Most of them can be explained dynamically by the existence of an anticyclone over the Azores, which sends air masses coming from the Caribbean over the Iberian Peninsula. A positive anomaly in the vertical temperature profile in the high troposphere and one negative anomaly in the medium and low stratosphere are also observed in most of the analysed episodes. The total ozone column decrease is accompanied by a rise in the UV erythemal radiation levels. This increase is quan…
Static Stability in the Extratropical Tropopause Region
2003
Abstract Idealized axisymmetric anomalies of potential vorticity (PV) on a midlatitude f plane and their related response in terms of balanced wind and temperature are investigated with special focus on the static stability in the tropopause region. The PV anomalies are specified such that they can be interpreted as the result of conservative advection in the tropopause region across the gradients of a prescribed background atmosphere with piecewise constant buoyancy frequency squared N2. Related cyclones and anticyclones are treated identically except for the sign of the tropopause potential temperature anomaly. Composite profiles of N2 are computed, for which the thermal tropopause is use…
The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric wave guide: a North Atlantic case-study
2011
This study highlights the importance of diabatic processes for the complex interaction of weather systems in the North Atlantic–European sector during the week of 7–14 September 2008. A chain of events occurred including the extratropical transition (ET) of hurricane Hanna, a subsequently developing extratropical cyclone, the formation of an upper-level potential vorticity (PV) streamer that protruded towards Europe and triggered intense rainfall, and the genesis of a Mediterranean cyclone. A PV perspective is adopted along with trajectory calculations to elucidate the diabatic modification of the midlatitude flow. Important diabatic PV modifications occurred at upper levels, associated wit…
Modification of the southern African rainfall variability/ENSO relationship since the late 1960s
2000
Analysis of 149 raingauge series (1946–1988) shows a weak positive correlation between late summer rainfalls (January–March) in tropical southern Africa and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation coefficients have been unstable since World War II. They were close to zero before 1970 and significant thereafter. Before 1970, southern African late summer rainfalls were more specifically correlated with regional patterns of sea surface temperature (SST), mainly over the southwestern Indian Ocean. After 1970, teleconnections with near global SST anomaly patterns, i.e. over the central Pacific and Indian oceans, dominate the regional connections. The increase in the sensitivity of …
Quantifying transport into the lowermost stratosphere using simultaneous in-situ measurements of SF<sub>6</sub> and CO&am…
2009
Abstract. The seasonality of transport and mixing of air into the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) is studied using distributions of mean age of air and a mass balance approach, based on in-situ observations of SF6 and CO2 during the SPURT (Spurenstofftransport in der Tropopausenregion, trace gas transport in the tropopause region) aircraft campaigns. Combining the information of the mean age of air and the water vapour distributions we demonstrate that the tropospheric air transported into the LMS above the extratropical tropopause layer (ExTL) originates predominantly from the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The concept of our mass balance is based on simultaneous measurements of the two pas…
Cyclogenesis Downstream of Extratropical Transition Analyzed by Q-Vector Partitioning Based on Flow Geometry
2014
Abstract During extratropical transition (ET), tropical cyclones exert a significant impact on the midlatitude circulation. Archetypical features of this impact are jet streak formation, amplification of the downstream trough, and modification of the associated downstream cyclogenesis. This study investigates the relative importance of the jet streak and the upper-level trough for cyclone development by quantifying the respective contributions to midtropospheric vertical motion using the Q-vector partitioning by J. C. Jusem and R. Atlas. Their framework is here extended from quasigeostrophic theory to alternative balance. The Q vector under alternative balance involves the nondivergent wind…
The economic impact of future increase in tropical cyclones in Japan
2009
Published version of an article from the journal:Natural Hazards. Also available from SpringerLink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9522-9 This article estimates the non-first-order economic loss in Japan due to a future increase in tropical cyclones. One possible effect of global warming could be the increase in intensity of tropical cyclones. Using historical storm tracks between the years 1978 and 2007 and altering their intensities due to this potential increase in their intensity, this paper calculates the future potential regional GDP loss in a certain area that is affected by tropical cyclones. Most of the literature is concerned with physical damage and the loss of lives due to…
Synoptic-scale variability of the polar and subpolar tropopause: Data analysis and idealized PV inversions
2002
The synoptic-scale variability of the polar and subpolar tropopause is investigated based on radiosonde and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis data in combination with idealized potential vorticity (PV) inversions. A regression analysis is performed to examine the relationship between the relative vorticity at tropopause level, the tropopause displacement, the static stability above the tropopause, and the anomalies of tropopause temperature and potential temperature. The results are compared with regression coefficients computed from a large number of PV inversions. Generally, a cyclonically influenced tropopause is lower, warmer and potentially colder than avera…
Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction
2020
Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-…