Search results for "Conditional"
showing 10 items of 294 documents
Nonlinear GARCH models for highly persistent volatility
2005
In this paper we study new nonlinear GARCH models mainly designed for time series with highly persistent volatility. For such series, conventional GARCH models have often proved unsatisfactory because they tend to exaggerate volatility persistence and exhibit poor forecasting ability. Our main emphasis is on models that are similar to previously introduced smooth transition GARCH models except for the novel feature that a lagged value of conditional variance is used as the transition variable. This choice of the transition variable corresponds to the idea that high persistence in conditional variance is related to relatively infrequent changes in regime. U sing the theory of Markov chains w…
No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35
2013
This paper analyzes the behavior of Ibex35 from January 1999 to December 2001, in order to check if it follows a different process from random walk so its return is not a white noise and it can be predictable, against the efficient market hypothesis. For that, a nonlinear generating process of return will be considered and a STAR-APARCH model will be specified. This model allows a nonlinear behavior in the conditional mean and in the conditional variance. The empirical results show that the Ibex35 follows a nonlinear and asymmetric process, both in the conditional mean as in the conditional variance, so the weak-version of efficient market hypothesis is rejected. El trabajo analiza el compo…
Keep the faith in banking : New evidence for the effects of negative interest rates based on the case of Finnish cooperative banks
2021
This paper analyses the profitability of Finnish cooperative banks during the period of negative nominal interest rates. Contrary to expectations, the continuous decline in money market interest rates between 2009 and 2014, and the following negative rate era, did not have adverse effects on the profitability of banks at the beginning of negative interest rate period. Based on especially using a risk-adjusted measure for bank profitability, these results contrast with previous findings. In our findings, the increasing wholesale funding (WSF) ratio seems to be an important factor. However, after 2017 the banks have not been able to improve especially their risk-adjusted profitability so stro…
The Influence of Oil Price on Renewable Energy Stock Prices: An Analysis for Entrepreneurs
2020
Abstract This study investigates the relationship between oil price fluctuations and renewable energy stock returns using daily data on Brent crude oil prices and global renewable energy stock market indices between 29 November 2010 and 18 February 2020. The investigation is based on the existing evidence on positive correlations between stock prices and oil prices, but it also considers the shift from non-renewable to renewable sources of energy. A two-stage GARCH(1,1) model and a Granger causality test were applied. Our results show that volatility clustering is present in the renewable energy companies‘ stock prices, but, oil price volatility does not seem to induce any significant effec…
ESCAPE TIMES IN STOCK MARKETS
2005
We study the statistical properties of escape times for stock price returns in the Wall Street market. In particular we get the escape time distribution for real data from daily transactions and for three models: (i) the Wiener process with drift and a constant market volatility, (ii) Heston and (iii) GARCH models, where the volatility is a stochastic process. We find that the first model is unable to catch all the features of the escape time distribution of real data. Moreover, the Heston model describes the probability density function for both return and escape times better than the GARCH model.
Oligodendrocyte-specific FADD deletion protects mice from autoimmune-mediated demyelination.
2010
Abstract Apoptosis of oligodendrocytes (ODCs), the myelin-producing glial cells in the CNS, plays a central role in demyelinating diseases such as multiple sclerosis and experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), an animal model of multiple sclerosis. To investigate the mechanism behind ODC apoptosis in EAE, we made use of conditional knockout mice lacking the adaptor protein FADD specifically in ODCs (FADDODC-KO). FADD mediates apoptosis by coupling death receptors with downstream caspase activation. In line with this, ODCs from FADDODC-KO mice were completely resistant to death receptor-induced apoptosis in vitro. In the EAE model, FADDODC-KO mice followed an ameliorated clinical di…
Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks
2009
The objective of this study is to analyze volatility transmission between the US and Eurozone stock markets considering the effects of the September 11, March 11 and July 7 financial crises. In order to do this, we use a multivariate GARCH model and take into account the asymmetric volatility phenomenon, the non-synchronous trading problem and the crises themselves. Moreover, a graphical analysis of the Asymmetric Volatility Impulse-Response Functions (AVIRF) is introduced, which takes into consideration the crisis effect. Results suggest that there is bidirectional and asymmetric volatility transmission and show the different impact that terrorist attacks had on both markets. El objetivo d…
Testing for financial contagion between developed and emerging markets during the 1997 East Asian crisis
2005
In this paper we examine whether during the 1997 East Asian crisis there was any contagion from the four largest economies in the region (Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia) to a number of developed countries (Japan, UK, Germany and France). Following Forbes and Rigobon, we test for contagion as a significant positive shift in the correlation between asset returns, taking into account heteroscedasticity and endogeneity bias. Furthermore, we improve on earlier empirical studies by carrying out a full sample test of the stability of the system that relies on more plausible (over) identifying restrictions. The estimation results provide some evidence of contagion, in particular from Japan…
Backwards Martingales and Exchangeability
2020
With many data acquisitions, such as telephone surveys, the order in which the data come does not matter. Mathematically, we say that a family of random variables is exchangeable if the joint distribution does not change under finite permutations. De Finetti’s structural theorem says that an infinite family of E-valued exchangeable random variables can be described by a two-stage experiment. At the first stage, a probability distribution Ξ on E is drawn at random. At the second stage, independent and identically distributed random variables with distribution Ξ are implemented.
TALPID3/KIAA0586 regulates multiple aspects of neuromuscular patterning during gastrointestinal development in animal models and human
2021
ABSTRACTTALPID3/KIAA0586 is an evolutionary conserved protein, which plays an essential role in protein trafficking. Its role during gastrointestinal (GI) and enteric nervous system (ENS) development has not been studied previously. Here, we analysed chicken, mouse and human embryonic GI tissues with TALPID3 mutations. The GI tract of TALPID3 chicken embryos was shortened and malformed. Histologically, the gut smooth muscle was mispatterned and enteric neural crest cells were scattered throughout the gut wall. Analysis of the Hedgehog pathway and gut extracellular matrix provided causative reasons for these defects. Interestingly, chicken intra-species grafting experiments and a conditional…