Search results for "Conditional"
showing 10 items of 294 documents
MCMC methods to approximate conditional predictive distributions
2006
Sampling from conditional distributions is a problem often encountered in statistics when inferences are based on conditional distributions which are not of closed-form. Several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to simulate from them are proposed. Potential problems are pointed out and some suitable modifications are suggested. Approximations based on conditioning sets are also explored. The issues are illustrated within a specific statistical tool for Bayesian model checking, and compared in an example. An example in frequentist conditional testing is also given.
Point process diagnostics based on weighted second-order statistics and their asymptotic properties
2008
A new approach for point process diagnostics is presented. The method is based on extending second-order statistics for point processes by weighting each point by the inverse of the conditional intensity function at the point’s location. The result is generalized versions of the spectral density, R/S statistic, correlation integral and K-function, which can be used to test the fit of a complex point process model with an arbitrary conditional intensity function, rather than a stationary Poisson model. Asymptotic properties of these generalized second-order statistics are derived, using an approach based on martingale theory.
Uniform ergodicity of the iterated conditional SMC and geometric ergodicity of particle Gibbs samplers
2018
We establish quantitative bounds for rates of convergence and asymptotic variances for iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (i-cSMC) Markov chains and associated particle Gibbs samplers. Our main findings are that the essential boundedness of potential functions associated with the i-cSMC algorithm provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniform ergodicity of the i-cSMC Markov chain, as well as quantitative bounds on its (uniformly geometric) rate of convergence. Furthermore, we show that the i-cSMC Markov chain cannot even be geometrically ergodic if this essential boundedness does not hold in many applications of interest. Our sufficiency and quantitative bounds rely on…
Some extensions of multivariate sliced inverse regression
2007
Multivariate sliced inverse regression (SIR) is a method for achieving dimension reduction in regression problems when the outcome variable y and the regressor x are both assumed to be multidimensional. In this paper, we extend the existing approaches, based on the usual SIR I which only uses the inverse regression curve, to methods using properties of the inverse conditional variance. Contrary to the existing ones, these new methods are not blind for symmetric dependencies and rely on the SIR II or SIRα. We also propose their corresponding pooled slicing versions. We illustrate the usefulness of these approaches on simulation studies.
Prospective surveillance of multivariate spatial disease data
2012
Surveillance systems are often focused on more than one disease within a predefined area. On those occasions when outbreaks of disease are likely to be correlated, the use of multivariate surveillance techniques integrating information from multiple diseases allows us to improve the sensitivity and timeliness of outbreak detection. In this article, we present an extension of the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate to monitor multivariate spatial disease data. The proposed surveillance technique, which is defined for each small area and time period as the conditional predictive distribution of those counts of disease higher than expected given the data observed up to the previous t…
Hitting Time Distributions in Financial Markets
2006
We analyze the hitting time distributions of stock price returns in different time windows, characterized by different levels of noise present in the market. The study has been performed on two sets of data from US markets. The first one is composed by daily price of 1071 stocks trade for the 12-year period 1987-1998, the second one is composed by high frequency data for 100 stocks for the 4-year period 1995-1998. We compare the probability distribution obtained by our empirical analysis with those obtained from different models for stock market evolution. Specifically by focusing on the statistical properties of the hitting times to reach a barrier or a given threshold, we compare the prob…
Exploring regression structure with graphics
1993
We investigate the extent to which it may be possible to carry out a regression analysis using graphics alone, an idea that we refer to asgraphical regression. The limitations of this idea are explored. It is shown that graphical regression is theoretically possible with essentially no constraints on the conditional distribution of the response given the predictors, but with some conditions on marginal distribution of the predictors. Dimension reduction subspaces and added variable plots play a central role in the development. The possibility of useful methodology is explored through two examples.
On decoupling in Banach spaces
2021
AbstractWe consider decoupling inequalities for random variables taking values in a Banach space X. We restrict the class of distributions that appear as conditional distributions while decoupling and show that each adapted process can be approximated by a Haar-type expansion in which only the pre-specified conditional distributions appear. Moreover, we show that in our framework a progressive enlargement of the underlying filtration does not affect the decoupling properties (in particular, it does not affect the constants involved). As a special case, we deal with one-sided moment inequalities for decoupled dyadic (i.e., Paley–Walsh) martingales and show that Burkholder–Davis–Gundy-type in…
Rough nonlocal diffusions
2019
We consider a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation driven by a deterministic rough path which describes the conditional probability of a McKean-Vlasov diffusion with "common" noise. To study the equation we build a self-contained framework of non-linear rough integration theory which we use to study McKean-Vlasov equations perturbed by rough paths. We construct an appropriate notion of solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation and prove well-posedness.
Dynamics of a financial market index after a crash
2002
We discuss the statistical properties of index returns in a financial market just after a major market crash. The observed non-stationary behavior of index returns is characterized in terms of the exceedances over a given threshold. This characterization is analogous to the Omori law originally observed in geophysics. By performing numerical simulations and theoretical modelling, we show that the nonlinear behavior observed in real market crashes cannot be described by a GARCH(1,1) model. We also show that the time evolution of the Value at Risk observed just after a major crash is described by a power-law function lacking a typical scale.