Search results for "Conditional"
showing 10 items of 294 documents
Starptautiskā valūtas fonda ietekme uz finansējuma saņēmējvalsts demokrātiju
2020
Maģistra darbā Starptautiskā Valūtas fonda ietekme uz finansējuma saņēmējvalsts demokrātiju apskatīta Starptautiskā Valūtas fonda kondicionalitāte Nabadzības mazināšanas un izaugsmes trasta Paplašinātās kredītlīnijas programmā noslēgtajās vienošanās Subsahāras Āfrikas valstu gadījumā un analizēts izvēlēto valstu gadījumos iekļautā kondicionalitāte ietekmē demokrātiju. Maģistra darbā apskatīts termins kondicionalitāte, Starptautiskā Valūtas fonda vēsture un funkcijas, pievēršot pastiprinātu uzmanību aizdevumu programmām un kondicionalitātei, sekojoši tiek ieskicēta Subsahāras Āfrikas ekonomikas vēsture un mūsdienu izaicinājumi. Aprakstot Kotdivuāras, Kenijas un Malāvijas gadījumus, tiek snie…
Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Random Routes in Finite Populations
1996
In many practical situations involving sampling from finite populations, it is not possible (or it is prohibitely expensive) to access, or to even produce, a listing of all of the units in the population. In these situations, inferences can not be based on random samples from the population. Random routes are widely used procedures to collect data in absence of well defined sampling frames, and they usually have either been improperly analyzed as random samples, or entirely ignored as useless. We present here a Bayesian analysis of random routes that incorporates the information provided but carefully takes into account the non- randomness in the selection of the units.
Drivers of Agglomeration: geography VS. History
2009
This paper focuses on the influence of two classical drivers of population agglomeration: geography and history. Geography is identified by two co-ordinates: coastal position and altitude. The prominence of history is also captured by two characteristics: the initial size of the municipalities, and their status as the administrative centre of the area. In first instance we examine localization patterns, at a small geographical scale, according to these characteristics and present empirical evidence of the progressive population concentration along the coast, on the plains and in the regional (provincial) capitals; a process that has not finished in the present days. Next, we show that both …
Feasibility of Ultra-Short-Term Analysis of Heart Rate and Systolic Arterial Pressure Variability at Rest and during Stress via Time-Domain and Entro…
2022
Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and Blood Pressure Variability (BPV) are widely employed tools for characterizing the complex behavior of cardiovascular dynamics. Usually, HRV and BPV analyses are carried out through short-term (ST) measurements, which exploit ~five-minute-long recordings. Recent research efforts are focused on reducing the time series length, assessing whether and to what extent Ultra-Short-Term (UST) analysis is capable of extracting information about cardiovascular variability from very short recordings. In this work, we compare ST and UST measures computed on electrocardiographic R-R intervals and systolic arterial pressure time series obtained at rest and during both post…
Some results on generalized coherence of conditional probability bounds
2003
Based on the coherence principle of de Finetti and a related notion of generalized coherence (g-coherence), we adopt a probabilistic approach to uncertainty based on conditional probability bounds. Our notion of g-coherence is equivalent to the 'avoiding uniform loss' property for lower and upper probabilities (a la Walley). Moreover, given a g-coherent imprecise assessment by our algorithms we can correct it obtaining the associated coherent assessment (in the sense of Walley and Williams). As is well known, the problems of checking g-coherence and propagating tight g-coherent intervals are NP and FP^NP complete, respectively, and thus NP-hard. Two notions which may be helpful to reduce co…
TLR7 controls VSV replication in CD169(+) SCS macrophages and associated viral neuroinvasion
2019
Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) is an insect-transmitted rhabdovirus that is neurovirulent in mice. Upon peripheral VSV infection, CD169+ subcapsular sinus (SCS) macrophages capture VSV in the lymph, support viral replication, and prevent CNS neuroinvasion. To date, the precise mechanisms controlling VSV infection in SCS macrophages remain incompletely understood. Here, we show that Toll-like receptor-7 (TLR7), the main sensing receptor for VSV, is central in controlling lymph-borne VSV infection. Following VSV skin infection, TLR7−/− mice display significantly less VSV titers in the draining lymph nodes (dLN) and viral replication is attenuated in SCS macrophages. In contrast to effects o…
Compensated transfer entropy as a tool for reliably estimating information transfer in physiological time series
2013
We present a framework for the estimation of transfer entropy (TE) under the conditions typical of physiological system analysis, featuring short multivariate time series and the presence of instantaneous causality (IC). The framework is based on recognizing that TE can be interpreted as the difference between two conditional entropy (CE) terms, and builds on an efficient CE estimator that compensates for the bias occurring for high dimensional conditioning vectors and follows a sequential embedding procedure whereby the conditioning vectors are formed progressively according to a criterion for CE minimization. The issue of IC is faced accounting for zero-lag interactions according to two a…
The impact of financial crises on co-movements between commodity futures and equity prices : evidence from crude oil and gold markets
2017
Omaisuusluokkien välisillä korrelaatioilla on tärkeä rooli sijoitussalkun hajautusta ajatellen. Omaisuuslajien suojauksen kannalta erityisen tärkeää on tutkia, miten eri omaisuusluokat korreloivat kriisiperiodien aikana. Tässä Pro-Gradu -tutkielmassa tarkastellaan osakemarkkinakriisien vaikutusta hyödykefutuurien ja osakemarkkinatuottojen välisiin korrelaatioihin USA:n markkinoilla erityisesti raakaöljyn ja kullan osalta. Korrelaatioiden mallintamisessa hyödynnetään Cappiellon, Englen ja Sheppardin vuonna 2006 ehdottamaa yleistettyä diagonaalimuotoista DCC GARCH -mallia. Tutkimuksessa verrataan ehdollisten korrelaatioiden kehitystä erikseen USA:n osakemarkkinoiden yleisindeksin ja energiase…
Unawareness, Priors and Posteriors
2008
Abstract. This note contains first thoughts on awareness of unawareness in a simple dynamic context where a decision situation is repeated over time. The main consequence of increasing awareness is that the model the decision maker uses, and the prior which it contains, becomes richer over time. The decision maker is prepared to this change, and we show that if a projection-consistency axiom is satisfied unawareness does not affect the value of her estimate of a payoff-relevant conditional probability (although it may weaken confidence in such estimate). Probability-zero events however pose a challenge to this axiom, and if that fails, even estimate values will be different if the decision …
Contingent Convertible Bonds for Sovereign Debt Risk Management
2018
Abstract We consider convertible bonds that contractually stipulate payment standstill, contingent on a market indicator of a sovereign’s credit worthiness breaching a distress threshold. This financial innovation limits ex ante the likelihood of debt crises and imposes ex post risk sharing between creditors and the debtor. Drawing from literature on contingent contracts, neglected risks, and bank CoCo, we extend prevailing arguments in favor of sovereign CoCo (S-CoCo). We discuss issues relating to their design: which market trigger, market discipline and sovereign incentives, and errors of false alarms or missed crises, and provide supporting evidence with eurozone data and a simple simul…