Search results for "Conditional"
showing 10 items of 294 documents
Price and volatility dynamics between electricity and fuel costs: Some evidence for Spain
2012
Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal linkages between the Spanish electricity, Brent crude oil and Zeebrugge (Belgium) natural gas 1-month-ahead forward prices. Following Lutkepohl et al. (2004), we control for the presence of a structural change in the series and then we use the Johansen cointegration test and a vector error correction model (VECM) to embrace the analysis. Additionally, a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is applied to explore volatility interactions between the three markets involved in the study. Our findings reveal that Brent crude oil and Zeebrugge natural gas forward prices play a prominent rol…
Productivity Polarization and Sectoral Dynamics in European Regions
2007
Abstract We show that the distribution dynamics of productivity in European regions displays polarization with a nonlinear growth path. We investigate the factors explaining this behavior focusing in particular on sectoral composition. The β -convegence analysis reveals that initial shares of Manufacturing and Other Market Services have a nonlinear impact on growth, while spatial effects are not statistically significant. By decomposing the dynamics of aggregate productivity in terms of sectoral dynamics, we show that productivity in Manufacturing, Non Market Services, and Other Market Services does not converge, for the complex interaction of technological spillovers and specialization eff…
TESTING FOR CONTAGION: A CONDITIONAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS
2005
Abstract In this paper, we test for contagion within the East Asian region, contagion being defined as a significant increase in the degree of comovement between stock returns in different countries. For this purpose, we use a parameter stability test, and, following [Rigobon, R., 2003a. On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?, Journal of International Economics], we control for three types of bias, resulting from heteroscedasticity, endogeneity and omitted variable, respectively. The null of interdependence against the alternative of contagion is then tested as an overidentifying restriction. Unlike other studies, our approach is based on …
A critical view on temperature modelling for application in weather derivatives markets
2012
In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature. The model contains seasonality, a low-order autoregressive component and a variance describing the heteroskedastic residuals. The model is estimated on daily average temperature records from Stockholm (Sweden). By comparing the proposed model with the popular model of Campbell and Diebold (2005), we point out some important issues to be addressed when modelling the temperature for application in weather derivatives market.
The Economic Value of Volatility Transmission Between the Stock and Bond Markets
2008
This study has two main objectives. Firstly, volatility transmission between stocks and bonds in European markets is studied using the two most important financial assets in these fields: the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index futures contract and the Euro Bund futures contract. Secondly, a trading rule for the major European futures contracts is designed. This rule can be applied to different markets and assets to analyze the economic significance of volatility spillovers observed between them. The results indicate that volatility spillovers take place in both directions and that the stock-bond trading rule offers very profitable returns after transaction costs. These results have important implicatio…
A Test of Covariance-Matrix Forecasting Methods
2015
Providing a more accurate covariance matrix forecast can substantially improve the performance of optimized portfolios. Using out-of-sample tests, in this article the author evaluates alternative covariance matrix-forecasting methods by looking at: (1) their forecast accuracy, (2) their ability to track the volatility of a minimum-variance portfolio, and (3) their ability to keep the volatility of a minimum-variance portfolio at a target level. The author finds large differences between the methods. The results suggest that shrinking the sample covariance matrix improves neither the forecast accuracy nor the performance of minimum-variance portfolios. In contrast, switching from the sample …
Convergence in the OECD: Transitional Dynamics or Narrowing Steady-State Differences?
2004
I. INTRODUCTION Research on growth and convergence has proceeded through several stages that can be described as a process of accommodating cross-country heterogeneity into the convergence equation. In the first stage, the world could be described as countries approaching to equal (absolute convergence) or to different (conditional convergence) steady states. In both cases--see Baumol (1986) Barro and Sala i Martin (1992), or Mankiw et al. (1992)--the assumption of parameter homogeneity of the underlying production function was assumed and not tested. Later, some researchers (Knight et al. [1993], Islam [1995], Durlauf and Johnson [1995], or Caselli et al. [1996], among others) began to cha…
A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility
2006
A multiplicative error model with time-varying parameters and an error term following a mixture of gamma distributions is introduced. The model is fitted to the daily realized volatility series of deutschemark/dollar and yen/dollar returns and is shown to capture the conditional distribution of these variables better than the commonly used autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model. The forecasting performance of the new model is found to be, in general, superior to that of the set of volatility models recently considered by Andersen et al. (2003, Econometrica 71, 579--625) for the same data. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.
Inducing efficient conditional cooperation patterns in public goods games, an experimental investigation
2010
This study analyses the behavior in a repeated public goods game when subjects know about the possibility of existence of strict conditional cooperators. We employed a baseline treatment and a threat treatment in which subjects are informed about the possibility of being in a group together with automata playing a grim trigger strategy. We conjecture the resulting game allows for almost fully efficient outcomes. Contributions in the threat treatment increase by 40% before a surprise restart, and by 50% after the surprise restart. In line with the grim trigger strategy subjects contribute either all or nothing in the threat treatment.
European Natural Gas Seasonal Effects on Futures Hedging
2015
Abstract This paper is the first to discuss the design of futures hedging strategies in European natural gas markets (NBP, TTF and Zeebrugge). A common feature of energy prices is that conditional mean and volatility are driven by seasonal trends due to weather, demand, and storage level seasonalities. This paper follows and extends the Ederington and Salas (2008) framework and considers seasonalities in mean and volatility when minimum variance hedge ratios are computed. Our results show that hedging effectiveness is much higher when the seasonal pattern in spot price changes is approximated with lagged values of the basis (futures price minus spot price). This fact remains true for short …