Search results for "Counterfactual"

Probabilistic inferences from conjoined to iterated conditionals

2017

Abstract There is wide support in logic, philosophy, and psychology for the hypothesis that the probability of the indicative conditional of natural language, P ( if A then B ) , is the conditional probability of B given A, P ( B | A ) . We identify a conditional which is such that P ( if A then B ) = P ( B | A ) with de Finetti's conditional event, B | A . An objection to making this identification in the past was that it appeared unclear how to form compounds and iterations of conditional events. In this paper, we illustrate how to overcome this objection with a probabilistic analysis, based on coherence, of these compounds and iterations. We interpret the compounds and iterations as cond…

The Tax Returns of Public Spending on Universities: An Estimate with Monte Carlo Simulations

2015

Pastor J. M. and Peraita C. The tax returns of public spending on universities: an estimate with Monte Carlo simulations, Regional Studies. This paper proposes a methodology based on counterfactual scenarios and the existence of uncertainty to estimate the tax returns of public spending of regional governments on their public universities. The introduction of differences in the time spent by the students at university and the proportion of the total public expenditure implies making assumptions about uncertainty. The paper applies Monte Carlo simulations incorporating stochastic elements to estimate the tax returns of public spending in the University of the Basque Country (Spain). The resu…

Editorial – About a ‚PLATO‘

2017

While learning has constantly been an object of research in manifold disciplines and fields, it has generally been understood in a positive sense. In the Age of Information, we are witnessing an increasing number of phenomena in the context of knowledge construction and accumulation that we describe as “negative learning”. This includes, for example, the deliberate circulation of counterfactual knowledge leading to negative learning outcomes, i.e., deficient decision-making and acting, like medical errors.

The effects of wage flexibility on activity and employment in Spain

2018

Abstract In this paper we estimate the macroeconomic effects of the greater wage and firms’ internal flexibility promoted by the economic policies implemented since 2012, which changed markedly Spanish labour regulations. To do so, we propose a structural VAR that allows us to break down changes in main macroeconomic variables into different structural shocks. From a policy perspective, the estimation of the structural shocks allows us to simulate a counterfactual scenario, whereby we conclude that the effects of less rigid labour market are positive and significant. Our results suggest that, if these policies were implemented at the beginning of the crisis, they could have avoided a signif…

Modality and Injunctive in Homeric Greek: The role of epistemic particles and adverbs in counterfactual constructions

2020

Structurally, unaugmented aorists and imperfects belong to the oldest layer of verbal forms attested in Greek, which continue the so-called Indo-European ‘injunctive’. The latter was inflectionally underspecified as regards verbal categories such as tense or mood (Hoffmann 1967; Kiparsky 1968). Thus, the question arises as to how the attitude of the speaker toward the content of his utterance was expressed. The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of epistemic particles and adverbs co-occurring with injunctives in the Iliad and the Odyssey, focusing in particular on past counterfactual constructions. Crosslinguistic studies have shown that such modal constructions reflect the univer…

The Counterfactual Reasoning and the Manipulative Account of Causality: the Origin of Causal Thinking from Free Will

2018

Perceptual presence without counterfactual richness

2014

In this commentary, I suggest that non-visual perceptual modalities provide counterexamples to Seth's claim that perceptual presence depends on counterfactual richness. Then I suggest a modification to Seth's view that is not vulnerable to these counterexamples.

Place-based policy in southern Italy: evidence from a dose-response approach

2021

This paper evaluates the effectiveness at a territorial level of a place-based policy for southern Italy, that is, territorial integrated projects (TIPs). We combine classical counterfactual designs and the construction of a dose–response function to assess the impact of the infrastructural interventions on the municipalities involved in a target region (Sicily). The results are robust enough to show policy effectiveness on both the number of workers and the number of plants. In the latter case, we also identify a significant and increasing dose–response function highlighting the positive relationship between funding intensity and the growth of plants.

Causal Models for Monitoring University Ordinary Financing Fund

2012

Recently iterated decreasing government transfers and an increasing proportion of budget allotted basing on competitive performances, took Italian Universities started struggling with competition for funds, in particular for the University Ordinary Financing Fund (FFO). Aim of this paper is monitoring variables responsible for FFO indicators, where monitoring means: describing, analysing retrospectively, predicting and intervening on variables responsible for indicators. All this aims can be achieved by statistical techniques that should be theoretically equipped with the distinction between predicting under observation and predicting under intervention, in order to provide correct answers …

Interpreting the decomposition of gender earnings gap

2010

In this paper we discuss a decomposition of the gender monthly earnings differential into three components: the first is due to differences in individual characteristics, the second is due to discrimination and the last to the differential in hours worked. The Oaxaca-Blinder hourly wage decomposition is perfectly integrated into the decomposition of the monthly earnings gap. In order to evaluate the effects of this components on the monthly earnings gap, we calculate counterfactual earnings gaps, estimating what would happen if various aspects relating to the two genders were equal (for example, educational level), and then we compare these with the empirical earnings gap. The aim of the co…