Search results for "Counterfactual thinking"
showing 3 items of 13 documents
Place-based policy in southern Italy: evidence from a dose-response approach
2021
This paper evaluates the effectiveness at a territorial level of a place-based policy for southern Italy, that is, territorial integrated projects (TIPs). We combine classical counterfactual designs and the construction of a dose–response function to assess the impact of the infrastructural interventions on the municipalities involved in a target region (Sicily). The results are robust enough to show policy effectiveness on both the number of workers and the number of plants. In the latter case, we also identify a significant and increasing dose–response function highlighting the positive relationship between funding intensity and the growth of plants.
Estimating the long-term economic impacts of Spanish universities on the national economy
2015
In contrast to previous studies on the economic impact of universities that focus on the demand side, this study centres on universities' effects on the supply side of the economy. Through a case study of the Spanish University System, this paper proposes a methodology based on counterfactual scenarios and growth accounting to estimate the long-term impacts of universities on their regional economies. Our study evaluates the stylized impacts of universities' activities on human capital, salaries and occupation of the working age population, on generation of technological capital and, finally, on the GDP growth of the Spanish economy in the period 1989–2010.
The effects of wage flexibility on activity and employment in Spain
2018
Abstract In this paper we estimate the macroeconomic effects of the greater wage and firms’ internal flexibility promoted by the economic policies implemented since 2012, which changed markedly Spanish labour regulations. To do so, we propose a structural VAR that allows us to break down changes in main macroeconomic variables into different structural shocks. From a policy perspective, the estimation of the structural shocks allows us to simulate a counterfactual scenario, whereby we conclude that the effects of less rigid labour market are positive and significant. Our results suggest that, if these policies were implemented at the beginning of the crisis, they could have avoided a signif…