Search results for "DEMAND"
showing 10 items of 759 documents
Analysis of risk premium in UK natural gas futures
2018
Abstract In many futures markets, trading is concentrated on the front contract and positions are rolled-over until the strategy horizon is attained. In this paper, a pair-wise comparison between the conventional risk premium and the accrued risk premium in rolled-over positions on the front contract is carried out for UK natural gas futures. Several novel results are obtained. Firstly, and most importantly, the accrued risk premium in rollover strategies is significatively larger than conventional risk premiums and increases with the time to delivery. Specifically, for strategy horizons between three and six months, this difference increases from 1% to 10% (or from 4% to 20% in annualized …
Oil prices and Spanish competitiveness
2002
Abstract This paper tries to find, using panel cointegration techniques, the factors explaining the real exchange rate of the Spanish peseta following the monetary approach to exchange rate determination developed in Meese and Rogoff (1988). In addition to the real interest rate differential, the real oil price (adjusted accounting for the relative oil dependence of the countries considered) is included as one of the main long-run determinants. The results are favorable to this simple model, stressing the role played by both, demand and supply factors, to explain the behavior of the peseta real exchange rate. However, the results are not homogeneous in the case of the real oil prices: this …
Educational intentions, cognitive skills and earnings expectations of French undergraduates
2014
International audience; This article aims to study the earnings expectations of first-year students at a French university. Our findings highlight the importance of the environment in which students make their choices about education. Expected earnings are proportionally higher when their parents seem to be involved in the careers guidance, taking into account the effect of parental socio-economic status. The positive opinion of parents about the orientation or the connection between the discipline and the father's occupation are generally associated with higher earnings. In addition, our results show a strong impact of cognitive variables which are far more significant than variables relat…
How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?
2012
Prova tipográfica
Diseño y aplicación de un instrumento para valorar la demanda cognitiva de problemas de matemáticas resueltos por estudiantes de enseñanza obligatori…
2018
Esta investigación está inducida por la necesidad de diseñar buenas prácticas docentes para atender a los estudiantes con altas capacidades matemáticas (aaccmm). Esta necesidad nos incitó a buscar una herramienta que dotara al profesorado de técnicas de intervención para la atención de este alumnado. Para ello, tratamos de utilizar el modelo de demanda cognitiva, considerado un instrumento relevante para la valoración de tareas. Las dificultades que encontramos cuando empezamos a aplicar dicho modelo en nuestras experimentaciones nos llevaron a mejorar el modelo de demanda cognitiva. En resumen, el objetivo general de esta investigación consiste en proporcionar una herramienta que permita a…
Les étudiants anticipent-ils correctement la valeur de leur diplôme sur le marché du travail ?
2013
Documents de travail de l'IREDU, n°2013-1; Ce travail analyse la manière dont les étudiants de première année d'université anticipent leurs salaires futurs, puis compare ces salaires à ceux qu'ils peuvent réellement observer sur le marché du travail. Nos résultats montrent globalement une surestimation des salaires anticipés d'environ 9 pour cent en début de carrière, ce qui est cohérent avec des travaux réalisés dans d'autres pays. En revanche, les salaires anticipés après dix ans de carrières sont supérieurs de 28 pour cent aux salaires observés des diplômés à ancienneté comparable. Les résultats soulignent également l'importance de l'environnement familial lors du choix des études supéri…
Economique de l'éducation. Travaux français
1979
Disponible sur : https://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k3329110c/f33.item.texteImage; International audience
Training Artificial Neural Networks With Improved Particle Swarm Optimization
2020
Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is popular for solving complex optimization problems. However, it easily traps in local minima. Authors modify the traditional PSO algorithm by adding an extra step called PSO-Shock. The PSO-Shock algorithm initiates similar to the PSO algorithm. Once it traps in a local minimum, it is detected by counting stall generations. When stall generation accumulates to a prespecified value, particles are perturbed. This helps particles to find better solutions than the current local minimum they found. The behavior of PSO-Shock algorithm is studied using a known: Schwefel's function. With promising performance on the Schwefel's function, PSO-Shock algorithm is util…
An empirical comparison of cross-impact models for forecasting sales
1986
Abstract This paper compares a set of four cross-impact models: (1) additive, (2) likelihood multiplier, (3) R-space, and (4) a model constructed by the author. This is done by examining a forecasting problem encountered by an industrial firm. The forecasting problem was to study the market trend in order to decide whether to expand the production capacity of a ceramics plant. In spite of their different theoretical premises, the models yielded similar results. However, only the R-space model produced results that differed from the others. The paper also suggests a method that should avoid some internal contradictions of the cross-impact models.
Credit Demand and Supply Shocks in Italy During the Great Recession
2018
In this paper, we use Structural VAR analysis to disentangle credit demand and supply shocks and their eFFect on real economic activity in Italy during the 2008-2014 crisis period. The three endogenous variables considered are the loan interest rate, the loans growth rate and the employment to population ratio. The data are observed at annual frequency for each of 103 Italian provinces. The structural shocks are identified through heteroscedasticity, by letting the variance of the shocks to switch across four Italian macro-regions: North, Centre, South and Islands. Sign restrictions are used to interpret ex post the structural shocks. The empirical findings suggest a more important role of …