Search results for "Distribution models"
showing 10 items of 28 documents
Plant invasion risk inside and outside protected areas: Propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors definitively matter
2023
Invasive alien species are among the main global drivers of biodiversity loss posing major challenges to nature conservation and to managers of protected areas. The present study applied a methodological framework that combined invasive Species Distribution Models, based on propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors for 14 invasive alien plants of Union concern in Italy, with the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation analysis aiming to map, evaluate and analyse the risk of plant invasions across the country, inside and outside the network of protected areas. Using a hierarchical invasive Species Distribution Model, we explored the combined effect of propagule pressure, abiotic …
Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk
2021
Abstract As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high‐risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disease–diversity relationships have mainly been studied in the context of species loss, but assemblage composition and disease risk (e.g. infection prevalence in wildlife assemblages) can change without extinction. Based on the predicted distributions and abundances of 4466 mammal species, we estimated global patterns of disease risk through …
Land unit definition for potential distribution of endangered species
2010
In Europe several mapping techniques exist to lay out plant distribution. Most of them, however, are focused on actual and not on potential species distribution range. Spatial predictions become more important for rare and endangered taxa because their conservation is related to existing as well as potential biotopes. The large part of detailed distribution models applies advanced statistics on a large data-set of environmental variables. Data-input availability limits the choice of the prediction model for species distribution and application of results in a detailed scale. Distribution pattern accuracy determinates its applicability in environmental management (for tracing edges, defining…
Constraints on Cosmic Strings Using Data from the Third Advanced LIGO–Virgo Observing Run
2021
We search for gravitational-wave signals produced by cosmic strings in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo full O3 data set. Search results are presented for gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loop features such as cusps, kinks and, for the first time, kink-kink collisions.cA template-based search for short-duration transient signals does not yield a detection. We also use the stochastic gravitational-wave background energy density upper limits derived from the O3 data to constrain the cosmic string tension, $G\mu$, as a function of the number of kinks, or the number of cusps, for two cosmic string loop distribution models.cAdditionally, we develop and test a third model which interpolat…
Mapping the potential for offshore aquaculture of salmonids in the Yellow Sea
2022
AbstractMariculture has been one of the fastest-growing global food production sectors over the past three decades. With the congestion of space and deterioration of the environment in coastal regions, offshore aquaculture has gained increasing attention. Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) are two important aquaculture species and contribute to 6.1% of world aquaculture production of finfish. In the present study, we established species distribution models (SDMs) to identify the potential areas for offshore aquaculture of these two cold-water fish species considering the mesoscale spatio-temporal thermal heterogeneity of the Yellow Sea. The values of the a…
Cetacean presence and distribution in the central Mediterranean Sea and potential risks deriving from plastic pollution
2021
Abstract The Sardinian and Sicilian Channels are considered hotspots of biodiversity and key ecological passages between Mediterranean sub-basins, but with significant knowledge gaps about marine mammal presence and potential threats they face. Using data collected between 2013 and 2019 along fixed transects, inter and intra-annual cetacean index of abundance was assessed. Habitat suitability, seasonal hot spots, and risk exposure for plastic were performed using the Kernel analysis and the Biomod2 R-package. 661 sightings of 8 cetacean species were recorded, with bottlenose and striped dolphins as the most sighted species. The north-eastern pelagic sector, the coastal waters and areas near…
Predicting the current and future global distribution of the invasive freshwater hydrozoan Craspedacusta sowerbii
2021
AbstractThe freshwater jellyfish Craspedacusta sowerbii is one of the most widespread invasive species, but its global distribution remains uncertain due to ephemeral appearances and general lack of information in various aquatic environments. The aim of this study was to map current and future distributions (2050 and 2100) using Species Distribution Models allowing to visualize the habitat suitability and make projections of its changes under potential climate change scenarios. Except in Oceania where the range decreased, an expansion of C. sowerbii was projected during the next century under modeled future scenarios being most intensive during the first half of the century. The present st…
Bioclimatic atlas of the terrestrial Arctic
2023
AbstractThe Arctic is the region on Earth that is warming at the fastest rate. In addition to rising means of temperature-related variables, Arctic ecosystems are affected by increasingly frequent extreme weather events causing disturbance to Arctic ecosystems. Here, we introduce a new dataset of bioclimatic indices relevant for investigating the changes of Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. The dataset, called ARCLIM, consists of several climate and event-type indices for the northern high-latitude land areas > 45°N. The indices are calculated from the hourly ERA5-Land reanalysis data for 1950–2021 in a spatial grid of 0.1 degree (~9 km) resolution. The indices are provided in three subsets…
Spatial Bayesian Modeling Applied to the Surveys of Xylella fastidiosa in Alicante (Spain) and Apulia (Italy)
2020
The plant-pathogenic bacterium Xylella fastidiosa was first reported in Europe in 2013, in the province of Lecce, Italy, where extensive areas were affected by the olive quick decline syndrome, caused by the subsp. pauca. In Alicante, Spain, almond leaf scorch, caused by X. fastidiosa subsp. multiplex, was detected in 2017. The effects of climatic and spatial factors on the geographic distribution of X. fastidiosa in these two infested regions in Europe were studied. The presence/absence data of X. fastidiosa in the official surveys were analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical models through the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) methodology. Climatic covariates were obtained from …
Distribution models and environmental changes : Application to echinoid faunas in the Southern Ocean and ecoregionalization
2018
Current environmental changes, which impact marine environments, cover major scientific and societal issues, especially as these environmental changes are expected to accelerate along the 21st century. Understanding and forecasting the response of marine biodiversity to these changes is a pregnant scientific issue. Biogeographic and macroecological approaches provide a scientific framework for that purpose. They allow describing and understanding species distribution patterns at large spatial scale as well as estimating their potential shift with regards to environmental change. This is particularly true in the Southern Ocean, where the effects of climate change are already occurring and wh…