Search results for "ECs"
showing 10 items of 2721 documents
Pricing the Option to Surrender in Incomplete Markets
2010
New international accounting standards require insurers to reflect the value of embedded options and guarantees in their products. Pricing techniques based on the Black and Scholes paradigm are often used; however, the hypotheses underneath this model are rarely met. We propose a framework that encompasses the most known sources of incompleteness. We show that the surrender option, joined with a wide range of claims embedded in insurance contracts, can be priced through our tool, and deliver hedging portfolios to mitigate the risk arising from their positions. We provide extensive empirical analysis to highlight the effect of incompleteness on the fair value of the option.
The welfare cost of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets
2016
We consider the welfare loss of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets, which results when private information or regulatory constraints prevent insurance companies to set premiums reflecting expected costs. We propose a methodology which uses survey data to measure this welfare loss. After identifying some “types” which determine expected risk and insurance demand, we derive the key factors defining the demand and cost functions in each market induced by these unobservable types. These are used to quantify the efficiency costs of unpriced heterogeneity. We apply our methods to the US Long-Term Care and Medigap insurance markets, where we find that unpriced heterogeneity causes substan…
Adapting to High Temperatures: Effect of Farm Practices and Their Adoption Duration on Total Value of Crop Production in Uganda
2021
In this article, we use spatially granular climate data merged with four waves of household survey data in Uganda to examine empirically the relationships among high temperatures, total value of crop production, and the adoption and adoption duration of two sustainable agricultural practices (organic fertilizer adoption and maize–legume intercropping). We do this using a fixed-effect model with instrumental variables to address potential endogeneity issues. Our findings indicate that the adoption of these practices has a positive effect on the total value of crop production, and such effect increases monotonically as temperatures increase from long-term averages. Moreover, the number of yea…
Knowing is half the battle: Seasonal forecasts, adaptive cropping systems, and the mediating role of private markets in Zambia
2019
Abstract This paper examines how smallholders living in regions where a drought is forecasted adapt their farm practices in response to receiving seasonal forecast information. The article draws on a unique longitudinal dataset in Zambia, which collected information from farm households before and after a significant drought caused by the 2015/2016 El-Nino Southern Oscillation. It finds that farmers residing in areas forecasted to be drought-affected and receiving seasonal forecast information are significantly more likely to integrate drought tolerant crops into their cropping systems compared to similar households not receiving this information. Moreover, the probability that a farmer imp…
BALANCED VARIABLE ADDITION IN LINEAR MODELS
2018
This paper studies what happens when we move from a short regression to a long regression in a setting where both regressions are subject to misspecification. In this setup, the least-squares estimator in the long regression may have larger inconsistency than the least-squares estimator in the short regression. We provide a simple interpretation for the comparison of the inconsistencies and study under which conditions the additional regressors in the long regression represent a “balanced addition” to the short regression.
Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications
2009
This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It finds that 1) most recent housing booms have been very persistent and of a significant magnitude; 2) there appears to be a strong correlation between the persistence and magnitude of booms and subsequent busts; 3) economic costs (in terms of GDP losses during the post-boom phase) depend significantly on the magnitude and duration of the boom and money and credit developments during that period; 4) a numb…
The rationality of rainy day savers: objective and subjective determinants of individual savings in Britain
2022
Using the largest and richest data on savings in Great Britain, six waves of the Wealth and Assets Survey from the Office for National Statistics, we compare standard life cycle models of saving with models using more 'subjective' measures, and the added dimension of longitudinal data. Whilst the life cycle model provides a benchmark, regular criticisms remain, particularly people's propensity to continue saving at older ages. Data on attitudes attenuate that issue, and panel data largely eliminate it. Our results confirm empirically, for Great Britain, the importance of some of the objective determinants of savings included in life cycle theory. When we look at more subjective ones, we sho…
Do robots complement or substitute for older workers?
2021
Abstract The impact of robotization on labor market outcomes has been recently empirically investigated along several directions, including employment, wages and labor productivity. This work contributes to this literature by looking for heterogeneous effects of robots on the workforce, analyzed by age cohorts. Relying on a panel of data from IFR (2019) and EU KLEMS (2009) over the years 1994–2005, we find consistent evidence of higher complementarity between robots and older workers (hours worked by employees aged 50 and over), and a greater substitutability among robots and younger cohorts of the labor market. These findings are robust to age group disaggregation and specific capital pric…
Weak versus strong dominance of shrinkage estimators
2021
We consider the estimation of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution with known variance. Most studies consider the risk of competing estimators, that is the trace of the mean squared error matrix. In contrast we consider the whole mean squared error matrix, in particular its eigenvalues. We prove that there are only two distinct eigenvalues and apply our findings to the James–Stein and the Thompson class of estimators. It turns out that the famous Stein paradox is no longer a paradox when we consider the whole mean squared error matrix rather than only its trace.
Damned If You Do and Damned If You Don’t: Two Masters
2018
Available online: 05 June 2018 We study common agency problems in which two principals (groups) make costly commitments to incentives that are conditioned on imperfect signals of the agent's action. Our framework allows for incentives to be either rewards or punishments. For our basic model we obtain a unique equilibrium, which typically involves randomization by both principals. Greater similarity between principals leads to more aggressive competition. The principals weakly prefer punishment to rewards, sometimes strictly. With rewards an agent voluntarily joins both groups with punishment it depends on whether severe punishments are feasible and cheap for the principals. We study whether…