Search results for "EPIDEMIC"
showing 10 items of 138 documents
Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks
2015
Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epide…
Multi-Phase epidemic model by a Markov chain
2008
Abstract In this paper we propose a continuous-time Markov chain to describe the spread of an infective and non-mortal disease into a community numerically limited and subjected to an external infection. We make a numerical simulation that shows tendencies for recurring epidemic outbreaks and for fade-out or extinction of the infection.
Stability of a stochastic SIR system
2005
Abstract We propose a stochastic SIR model with or without distributed time delay and we study the stability of disease-free equilibrium. The numerical simulation of the stochastic SIR model shows that the introduction of noise modifies the threshold of system for an epidemic to occur and the threshold stochastic value is found.
A mid-term estimate of 2018/2019 vaccine effectiveness to prevent laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) influenza cases in Sicily (Italy)
2019
Abstract Influenza season started in Italy during the month of October 2018, approaching the epidemic peak in January 2019. This report aim to explore the mid-term virologic surveillance data of the 2018–2019 influenza season in Sicily and to estimate the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine (VE) against A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) influenza viruses. A test-negative design was used to evaluate influenza VE. In Sicily, almost all influenza infections were sustained by influenza type A viruses, of which 62.3% were A(H3N2) and 36.3% A(H1N1)pdm09. A reduction of laboratory confirmed influenza cases in Sicilian population immunized against influenza were observed. In particular, an overall s…
Worldwide burden of LDL cholesterol: Implications in cardiovascular disease
2020
Abstract Background and aim an increased value of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is now universally considered a major cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor. LDL-C is included in the vast majority of worldwide cardiovascular risk prediction algorithms, as well as in the guidelines for cardiovascular risk prevention. We aimed to provide an overview of the worldwide adverse healthcare impact of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Methods and results Data on the epidemiologic burden of LDL-C >1.3 mmol/L were retrieved from Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) registry. The current burden is 94.92 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with an exponential increas…
Media constructions of fear in the outbreak of an epidemic disease
2016
Purpose – After almost a decade, the re-appearance of dengue fever in Argentina caused panic and fears. Unlike Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, where prevention policies have been followed, the future of dengue is uncertain in Argentina; the present paper does not have political affiliation but the purpose of this paper is to emphasizes the role that mass media plays in the coverage of epidemics. Design/methodology/approach – In moments of disorder, uncertainness or disaster, societies experience a shift in the ways they perceive their reality. Findings – In the times, media plays a dominant role in constructing the reality that the authors get to consume. Such reality is reflective of media’…
SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater anticipated COVID-19 occurrence in a low prevalence area
2020
Preprint disponible en http://hdl.handle.net/10261/209125
Pasaules Veselības organizācijas darbība Ebolas vīrusa epidēmijas laikā: novēršanas pasākumu un krīzes vadības izvērtējums
2018
Maģistra darba tēma ir Pasaules Veselības organizācijas darbība Ebolas vīrusa epidēmijas laikā: novēršanas pasākumu un krīzes vadības izvērtējums. Pētījuma mērķis ir: analizējot Ebolas vīrusa epidēmijas krīzi, identificēt PVO darbības trūkumus un gūtās mācības. Maģistra darba izpētes jautājums ir: Kādas PVO darbības trūkumus un gūtās mācības var konstatēt Ebolas vīrusa epidēmijas krīzes laikā. Maģistra darbā izmantota starptautiskā katastrofu pārvaldības teorija, kas ieskicē galvenos krīzes vadības elementus. Darba empīriskajā daļā ir analizēta PVO darbība Ebolas vīrusa epidēmijas laikā 2014.gadā, tiek apskatīti PVO vairāki aspekti un to pilnveidošanas nepieciešamība, kā arī dalībvalstu ies…
Wastewater-based epidemiology for early warning of SARS-COV-2 circulation: A pilot study conducted in Sicily, Italy
2022
There is increasing evidence of the use of wastewater-based epidemiology to integrate conventional monitoring assessing disease symptoms and signs of viruses in a specific territory. We present the results of SARS-CoV-2 environmental surveillance activity in wastewater samples collected between September 2020 and July 2021 in 9 wastewater treatment plants (WTPs) located in central and western Sicily, serving over 570,000 residents. The presence of SARS-CoV-2, determined in 206 wastewater samples using RT-qPCR assays, was correlated with the notified and geo-referenced cases on the areas served by the WTPs in the same study period. Overall, 51% of wastewater samples were positive. Samples we…
Distinct Clones of Yersinia pestis Caused the Black Death
2010
From AD 1347 to AD 1353, the Black Death killed tens of millions of people in Europe, leaving misery and devastation in its wake, with successive epidemics ravaging the continent until the 18th century. The etiology of this disease has remained highly controversial, ranging from claims based on genetics and the historical descriptions of symptoms that it was caused by Yersinia pestis to conclusions that it must have been caused by other pathogens. It has also been disputed whether plague had the same etiology in northern and southern Europe. Here we identified DNA and protein signatures specific for Y. pestis in human skeletons from mass graves in northern, central and southern Europe that …