Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
Intertemporal and interprovincial variations in income inequality: Spain, 1973–1991
2002
Goerlich F. J. and Mas M. (2002) Intertemporal and interprovincial variations in income inequality: Spain, 1973–1991, Reg. Studies 36, 1005–1015. The paper presents the main findings on personal income distribution for the Spanish provinces over the period 1973–91. The information comes from the three structural Household Budget Surveys and has been elaborated by the authors on a homogeneous base (available at: http://www.ivie.es). It starts by reviewing the information provided by some dispersion statistics, including kernel density functions, applied to the provincial Gini indices and Lorenz percentiles. It goes on to test, making use of an ANOVA model, two propositions related with inter…
Business Cycle Affiliations in the Context of European Integration
2007
We study affiliations for the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with Germany and the USA, using various business cycle measures derived from quarterly real GDP. These measures are Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filtered series and annual growth rates. By using rolling contemporaneous and maximum (over a short lead/lag interval) correlations, we document increasing correlations of EMU countries with Germany, with these typically being largest during the 1990s. We also document a strong leading role for the USA in relation to these countries in the period since 1993, thereby correcting the fallacy that the European business cycle was disjointed from the USA for mos…
The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries
2012
Abstract The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial crises on potential output. For this purpose a univariate autoregressive growth equation is estimated on an unbalanced panel of OECD countries over the period 1960–2008. Our results suggest that the occurrence of a financial crisis negatively and permanently affects potential output. In particular, financial crises are estimated to lower potential output by around 1.5–2.4% on average, with most of the impact coming from the effect on capital. The magnitude of the effect increases with the severity of the crisis. These results are robust to the use of an alternative measure of potential output, changes in the methodology and…
What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?
2015
We use data for a panel of 60 countries over the period 1980–2005 to investigate the main drivers of the likelihood of structural reforms. We find that: (i) external debt crises are the main trigger of financial and banking reforms; (ii) inflation and banking crises are the key drivers of external capital account reforms; (iii) banking crises also hasten financial reforms; and (iv) economic recessions play an important role in promoting the necessary consensus for financial, capital, banking and trade reforms, especially in the group of OECD-countries. Additionally, we also observe that the degree of globalisation is relevant for financial reforms, in particular in the group of non-OECD cou…
Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions
2015
In this article we present evidence of the long-run effect of trade openness on income per worker for two regions that have followed different liberalization strategies, namely Asia and Latin America. A model that re-examines these questions is estimated for two panels of Asian and Latin American countries over the 1980-2008 period using a novel empirical approach that accounts for endogeneity as well as for the time series properties of the variables involved. From an econometric point of view, we apply recent panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for two additional elements usually neglected in previous empirical literature: cross-dependence and structural bre…
Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain
2015
"Available online 1 August 2014"
Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between goods and services inflation in the United States
2006
In this paper, we model the long-run relationship between goods and services inflation for the United States over the period 1968:1–2003:3. Our empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration that consider the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between the two inflation series. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration would be rejected in favor of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. Consequently, we could expect a cointegrating relationship only when the divergence between services inflation and goods inflation is above the threshold point estimate.
Short-term modified Phillips curves for the accession countries
2006
This study uses NAIRU short-term measures obtained using univariate methods as a basis to analyse inflation developments in the eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the European Union in 2004 during the transition process. The results point to the role of short-term NAIRU as an attractor and support a shifting natural rate hypothesis for unemployment in these countries.
Has 1997 Asian crisis increased information flows between international markets
2003
Abstract The Asian crisis started on July 2, 1997 and caused turmoil in developed as well as emerging international stock markets. The objective of this paper is to analyse the effects of the crisis on the relationships of the Southeast Asian stock markets with the stock markets of three geographical areas (Europe, North America, and Latin America). We use the Morgan Stanley national and international indexes (MSCI) for two homogeneous and nonoverlapping time intervals. The econometric techniques used in this paper include the cointegration test, vector autoregression analysis, forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD), and impulse–response relationships. Our results show that: (i) there…
Do market regulations reduce investment? Evidence from European regions
2016
ABSTRACTDo market regulations reduce investment? Evidence from European regions. Regional Studies. This paper investigates the impact of market imperfections on non-farm business sector investment in European regions for 1995–2007, using dynamic panel and generalized method of moments (GMM) methods for estimating a Euler equation. The results show that barriers to entrepreneurship and to trade and investment decrease the productivity of capital, which has negative effects on European regions’ investment. Corruption leads to increased operational costs, creates uncertainty and thereby deters investment. Greater labour market regulation also means higher labour costs. Hiring and firing regula…