Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
Encuestas a pie de urna en España. ¿Error muestral o sesgo de no respuesta?
2016
Countless examples of misleading forecasts on behalf of both pre-election and exit polls can be found all over the world. Non-representative samples due to differential nonresponse have been claimed as being the main reason for inaccurate exit-poll projections. In real inference problems, it is seldom possible to compare estimates and true values. Electoral forecasts are an exception. Comparisons between estimates and final outcomes can be carried out once votes have been tallied. In this paper, we examine the raw data collected in seven exit polls conducted in Spain and test the likelihood that the data collected in each sampled voting location can be considered as a random sample of actua…
Spatial Data and Econometrics
2013
242 pages; International audience
Panel Conditioning or SOCRATIC EFFECT REVISITED: 99 Citations, but is there Theoretical Progress?
2020
In a paper published as early as 1987 by Jagodzinski, Kuhnel and Schmidt on attitude measurement in a three wave panel study, we established empirically a general orientation toward foreign employees in Western Germany called “Gastarbeiter”. These items have been continuously used from 1980 till now in the ALLBUS studies (Wasmer and Hochman 2019). In this paper, we have analyzed how the citation, explanation and modeling of the Socratic effect for explaining changes in panel data developed over time starting with the original paper of Jagodzinski et al. (1987). According to Google Scholar retrieved at 24.1.2019, 99 citations were found, which are all listed in the Online Supplementary. From…
Another Look at Value and Momentum: Volatility Spillovers
2017
This paper examines volatility interdependencies between value and momentum returns. Using U.S. data over the period 1926-2015, we document persistent periods of low and high volatility spillovers between value and momentum strategies. Moreover, we find that the intensity of the volatility spillovers may change substantially in very short periods of time and that these shifts in spillover intensity can be linked to prominent economic events and financial market turmoil. Our results further demonstrate that value returns increase and momentum returns decrease monotonically with increasing volatility spillovers between the two strategies. Given this linkage between spillover intensity and ret…
Involvement and image transfer in sports sponsorship
2017
Sponsorships have become one of the most important marketing tools. Data show that a majority of sporting events is sponsored and that investment in sponsorship is increasing every year. Companies are demanding more research to better unde rstand their investment efficacy. Involvement is a key element in processing sponsorship information in consumers’ minds. This variable affects consumer behavior and moderates the sponsor image transfer. The study of involvement could give guidance for the design of appropriate and functional advert ising campaigns. The research proposes segmenting and modelling sport consumer behaviour in sponsorship by their level of involvement with the event. For this…
Stochastic modeling of Supramax spot and forward freight rates
2015
We conducted an empirical analysis of Supramax spot rates and propose a continuous time process to model the dynamics. The model incorporates features relevant for shipping freight rates, freight rate volatility that varies over time, sudden, big freight rate movements, and short-term, mean-reverting price trends. This suggests some degree of short-term predictability of Supramax spot rates, making shipping different from traditional asset markets, like stocks and currencies, and also most commodity markets. However, this does not imply that arbitrage profits are easily picked up in this market, as, financially speaking, spot freight rates are not traded assets. We instead focus on the rela…
Understanding Economic Growth in Ghana in Comparative Perspective
2019
Ghana has experienced a decade of solid and exceptionally high growth. Between 2005 and 2015, income nearly doubled. This paper analyzes the factors driving this impressive growth performance, using tools such as structural change decompositions and growth regressions. For the comparative perspective, the paper compares Ghana with its structural and aspirational peers. The paper finds that the contribution of structural change to growth has been limited and attributes this to labor that was freed up in agriculture not being absorbed by high-productivity sectors. Looking at factors that drove growth since 2000, financial development and infrastructure had the most important impacts. A benchm…
Active monetary policy and instability in a phillips curve system
1998
The presence of nonlinearities in a Phillips curve system yields to complex dynamics, i.e., cyclical behavior that may (under some parametric set) become chaotic. This paper extends these conclusions by including an active monetary policy. We show how stabilization policy may lead to amplified instabilities and that agents' expectations tend to play a key role in the amount of these instabilities.
Stackelberg equilibrium with many leaders and followers. The case of zero fixed costs
2017
Abstract I study a version of the Stackelberg game with many identical firms in which leaders and followers use a continuous cost function with no fixed cost. Using lattice theoretical methods I provide a set of conditions that guarantee that the game has an equilibrium in pure strategies. With convex costs the model shows the same properties as a quasi-competitive Cournot model. The same happens with concave costs, but only when the number of followers is small. When this number is large the leaders preempt entry. I study the comparative statics and the limit behavior of the equilibrium and I show how the main determinants of market structure interact. More competition between the leaders …
Growth in Average Firm Size of U.S. Industrial Portfolios and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns
2018
This paper shows that growth in average firm size in U.S. industrial portfolios predicts future growth in average firm size. Moreover, the payoffs of industrial portfolios sorted by growth in average firm size in the previous period increase linearly as we move from lowest to highest growth in average firm size. The spread between highest and lowest growth in average firm size is economically large and cannot be explained by exposures to standard risk factors or the asset growth effect (Cooper, Gulen, and Schill, 2008). Principal component analysis reveals that this growth in average firm size effect is linked to the first principal component. Moreover, stochastic discount factor model anal…