Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European monetary system
2007
In this paper we examine the nature of currency crises. We ascertain whether the currency crises of the European Monetary System (EMS) were based either on fundamentals, or on self-fulfilling market expectations driven by extrinsic uncertainty. In particular, we extend previous work of Jeanne and Masson (J Int Econ 50:327–350, 2000) regarding the evaluation of currency crisis. We contribute to the existing literature proposing the use of Markov regime-switching with time-varying transition probability model. Our empirical results suggest that the currency crises of the EMS were not due only to market expectations driven by external uncertainty, or ‘sunspots’, but also to fundamental variabl…
Imperfect information and consumer inflation expectations:evidence from microdata
2017
This paper explores which factors trigger an adjustment in consumers’ inflation expectations and looks at the implications regarding forecast errors. We find support for imperfect information models, as inflation volatility and news trigger an adjustment in expectations. Furthermore, we document that individual expectations become more accurate if they have been adjusted.
Social capital and economic growth in Europe: nonlinear trends and heterogeneous regional effects
2016
After two decades of academic debate on the social capital-growth nexus, discussion still remains open. Most of the literature so far, however, has followed the one-size-its-all approach, neglecting that the great disparities across geographical units might have implications in this relationship. This article analyzes the role of two social capital indicators on the growth of 237 European regions in the period 1995–2007 by implementing a set of both parametric and non- parametric regressions. Whereas the former impose a linear functional form for the parameters, the latter relax this assumption providing a flexible frame in which the functional form is given by the data. The technique also …
Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries. New evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks†
2006
This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries covering the period 1956–2001. The tests exploit the cross-sectional variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a different number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and support the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analysed.
Assessing covariate imbalance in meta-analysis studies.
2010
The main goal of meta-analysis is to combine data across studies or data sets to obtain summary estimates. In this paper, the novelty is to propose a statistical tool to assess a possible covariate imbalance in baseline variables to investigate similarity of trials. We conducted the detection of the covariate imbalance, first, through some graphical comparison of the empirical cumulative distribution functions or ECDFs, which are built by putting together arms or trials according to some risk factor, and second, through some non-parametric tests such as the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and the Anderson–Darling tests. To overcome the huge presence of ties, we conducted the statistical tests on perturbe…
MCMC methods to approximate conditional predictive distributions
2006
Sampling from conditional distributions is a problem often encountered in statistics when inferences are based on conditional distributions which are not of closed-form. Several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to simulate from them are proposed. Potential problems are pointed out and some suitable modifications are suggested. Approximations based on conditioning sets are also explored. The issues are illustrated within a specific statistical tool for Bayesian model checking, and compared in an example. An example in frequentist conditional testing is also given.
A gradient-based deletion diagnostic measure for generalized linear mixed models
2016
ABSTRACTA gradient-statistic-based diagnostic measure is developed in the context of the generalized linear mixed models. Its performance is assessed by some real examples and simulation studies, in terms of ability in detecting influential data structures and of concordance with the most used influence measures.
Equivalence Testing With Particle Size Distribution Data: Methods and Applications in the Development of Inhalative Drugs
2017
ABSTRACTKey criteria of the quality of inhalative drugs are assessed in experiments generating so-called particle size distributions as data. Many experiments of that kind are carried out to demonstrate that necessary modifications to whatever part of the manufacturing process do not substantially change basic characteristics of an inhalable drug product. The equivalence testing procedures we derive for that purpose rely on different models accommodating the specific structure of such data and on different ways of specifying the region of nonrelevant differences. For each hypotheses formulation, three different tests are derived (two parametric and one asymptotically distribution-free proce…
Multivariate GARCH estimation via a Bregman-proximal trust-region method
2011
The estimation of multivariate GARCH time series models is a difficult task mainly due to the significant overparameterization exhibited by the problem and usually referred to as the "curse of dimensionality". For example, in the case of the VEC family, the number of parameters involved in the model grows as a polynomial of order four on the dimensionality of the problem. Moreover, these parameters are subjected to convoluted nonlinear constraints necessary to ensure, for instance, the existence of stationary solutions and the positive semidefinite character of the conditional covariance matrices used in the model design. So far, this problem has been addressed in the literature only in low…
A more efficient second order blind identification method for separation of uncorrelated stationary time series
2016
The classical second order source separation methods use approximate joint diagonalization of autocovariance matrices with several lags to estimate the unmixing matrix. Based on recent asymptotic results, we propose a novel unmixing matrix estimator which selects the best lag set from a finite set of candidate sets specified by the user. The theory is illustrated by a simulation study.