Search results for "Econometric"

Seeing Frequency Data

2011

Seeing Univariate Data

2011

Analysis of Educational Frequency Data from a Complex Sample Survey

1991

Abstract Some recent methods are presented for analyzing categorial data from complex surveys involving clustering familiar in educational research where e.g. teaching groups are used as sample clusters. The methods are introduced through a discussion of the test of independence on a two‐way table and the analysis of a two‐way table using logistic regression models. The analyses are illustrated using data from the First National Assessment of the Finnish Comprehensive School 1979. The primary focus of the paper is on the methods that provide first‐order corrections to standard multinomial‐based chi‐square tests by taking account of survey design effects. Both first‐ and second‐order correct…

A semiparametric approach to estimate reference curves for biophysical properties of the skin

2006

Reference curves which take one covariable into account such as the age, are often required in medicine, but simple systematic and efficient statistical methods for constructing them are lacking. Classical methods are based on parametric fitting (polynomial curves). In this chapter, we describe a new methodology for the estimation of reference curves for data sets, based on nonparametric estimation of conditional quantiles. The derived method should be applicable to all clinical or more generally biological variables that are measured on a continuous quantitative scale. To avoid the curse of dimensionality when the covariate is multidimensional, a new semiparametric approach is proposed. Th…

Dynamic copula models for the spark spread

2011

We propose a non-symmetric copula to model the evolution of electricity and gas prices by a bivariate non-Gaussian autoregressive process. We identify the marginal dynamics as driven by normal inverse Gaussian processes, estimating them from a series of observed UK electricity and gas spot data. We estimate the copula by modeling the difference between the empirical copula and the independent copula. We then simulate the joint process and price options written on the spark spread. We find that option prices are significantly influenced by the copula and the marginal distributions, along with the seasonality of the underlying prices.

On the ambiguous consequences of omitting variables

2015

This paper studies what happens when we move from a short regression to a long regression (or vice versa), when the long regression is shorter than the data-generation process. In the special case where the long regression equals the data-generation process, the least-squares estimators have smaller bias (in fact zero bias) but larger variances in the long regression than in the short regression. But if the long regression is also misspecified, the bias may not be smaller. We provide bias and mean squared error comparisons and study the dependence of the differences on the misspecification parameter.

Sigma-convergence in the OECD: Transitional Dynamics or Narrowing Steady State Differences?

2002

The empirical literature of growth has steadly improved the econometric methods used mainly to address the effect of cross-country heterogeneity in the estimated convergence rate. In this paper, we highlight an important implication of this process of econometric refinement that has so far received little attention. We show that the picture that emerges from models that allow for generalised heterogeneity changes our view of the process of convergence within the OECD. Estimation methods that allow for non or partial heterogeneity stress the importance of transitional dynamics in the process of convergence. Thus sigma-convergence is mostly accounted for by beta-convergence. On the contrary, …

Sticky-Price Models and the Natural Rate Hypothesis

2005

A major criticism of standard specifications of price adjustment in models for monetary policy analysis is that they violate the natural rate hypothesis by allowing output to differ from potential in steady state. In this paper we estimate a dynamic optimizing business cycle model whose price-setting behavior satisfies the natural rate hypothesis. The price-adjustment specifications we consider are the sticky-information specification of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and the indexed contracts of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005). Our empirical estimates of the real side of the economy are similar whichever price adjustment specification is chosen. Consequently, the alternative model specifi…

The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies

2018

The paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of labor and product market reforms on output, employment and productivity, and explores how these vary with prevailing macroeconomic conditions and policies. We apply a local projection method to a new dataset of major country- and country-sector-level reform shocks in various areas of labor market institutions and product market regulation covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. Product market reforms are found to raise productivity and output, but gains materialize only slowly. The impact of labor market reforms is primarily on employment, but it varies across types of reforms and depends on overall business cycle c…

Can fiscal policy stimulus boost economic recovery

2011

We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. Consequently, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments (e.g. via taxes on capital gains) may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts, which gives rise to the importance of the im…