Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
Labor Productivity Growth: Disentangling Technology and Capital Accumulation
2014
We adopt a counterfactual approach to decompose labor productivity growth into growth of Technological Productivity (TEP), growth of the capital-labor ratio and growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP). We bring the decomposition to the data using international countrysectoral information spanning from the 1960s to the 2000s and a nonparametric generalized kernel method, which enables us to estimate the production function allowing for heterogeneity across all relevant dimensions: countries, sectors and time. As well as documenting substantial heterogeneity across countries and sectors, we nd average TEP to account for about 44% of labor productivity growth and TEP gaps with respect to the…
Breakup and default risks in the great lockdown
2023
Abstract In this paper, we exploit CDS quotes for contracts denominated in different currencies and with different default clauses to estimate the risk of a breakup of the Eurozone and the propagation of breakup and default risks after the COVID-19 shock. Our main result is that the risk of a Eurozone breakup is significant although, quantitatively, it is not larger than in the period before the COVID-19 shock. In addition, we find that an increase in the redenomination risk in one country is associated with an increase in default premia and bond spreads in other Eurozone countries. Finally, we find that a sizeable fraction of the changes in the cost of insuring against redenomination and d…
Robust Recovery Risk Hedging: Only the First Moment Matters
2009
Credit derivatives are subject to at least two sources of risk: the default time and the recovery payment. This paper examines the impact of modeling the recovery payment on hedging strategies in a reduced-form model as well as a structural model. We show that all hedging approaches based on a quadratic criterion do only depend on the expected recovery payment at default and not the whole shape of the recovery payment distribution if the underlying hedging instrument (say, a defaultable zero coupon bond) jumps to or reaches a pre-specified value when the credit event occurs. This justifies assuming a \emph{certain} recovery rate conditional on default time and interest rate level. Hence, th…
Pricing sovereign contingent convertible debt
2018
We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spread levels under fixed regimes, in order to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper uses the pricing model in a Longstaff-Schwartz American option pricing framework to compute future state contingent S-CoCo prices for risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CDS spread for the sovereign debt together with a broad market index. …
CRIME AND PUNISHMENT: ADAM SMITH’S THEORY OF SENTIMENTAL LAW AND ECONOMICS
2020
For Adam Smith, a crime is not the result of a rational calculation of loss and gain but the consequence of envy and a vain desire to parade wealth to attract the approbation of others, combined with a natural systematic bias in overestimating the probability of success. Similarly, Smith does not conceive of legal sanctions as a rational deterrent but as deriving from the feeling of resentment. While the prevailing approach of the eighteenth century is a rational explanation of crime and a utilitarian use of punishment, Adam Smith instead builds his theory of criminal behavior and legal prosecution consistently on the sentiments. A well-functioning legal system is thus an unintended consequ…
How Do Institutions Affect Structural Unemployment in Times of Crises?
2012
This paper examines the effect of economic crises on structural unemployment using an Autoregressive Distributed Lags model and accounting for the role of institutional settings on an unbalanced panel of 30 OECD economies from 1960 to 2006. We found that downturns have, on average, a significant positive impact on the level of structural unemployment rate. The maximum impact varies with the severity of the downturn. Institutions (such as employment protection legislation, average replacement ratio and product market regulation) influence both the extent of the initial shock and the adjustment pattern in the aftermath of an economic downturn.
Value congruence in health care priority setting: social values, institutions and decisions in three countries
2014
AbstractMost developed democracies have faced the challenge of priority setting in health care by setting up specialized agencies to take decisions on which medical services to include in public health baskets. Under the influence of Daniels and Sabin’s seminal work on the topic, agencies increasingly aim to fulfil criteria of procedural justice, such as accountability and transparency. We assume, however, that the institutional design of agencies also and necessarily reflects substantial value judgments on the respective weight of distributive principles such as efficiency, need and equality. The public acceptance of prioritization decisions, and eventually of the health care system at lar…
Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast
2019
This study analyzes forecasts of Bitcoin price using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and neural network autoregression (NNAR) models. Employing the static forecast approach, we forecast next-day Bitcoin price both with and without re-estimation of the forecast model for each step. For cross-validation of forecast results, we consider two different training and test samples. In the first training-sample, NNAR performs better than ARIMA, while ARIMA outperforms NNAR in the second training-sample. Additionally, ARIMA with model re-estimation at each step outperforms NNAR in the two test-sample forecast periods. The Diebold Mariano test confirms the superiority of forecast …
Complexity traits and synchrony of cryptocurrencies price dynamics
2021
AbstractIn this study, we characterized the dynamics and analyzed the degree of synchronization of the time series of daily closing prices and volumes in US$ of three cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin, over the period September 1,2015–March 31, 2020. Time series were first mapped into a complex network by the horizontal visibility algorithm in order to revel the structure of their temporal characters and dynamics. Then, the synchrony of the time series was investigated to determine the possibility that the cryptocurrencies under study co-bubble simultaneously. Findings reveal similar complex structures for the three virtual currencies in terms of number and internal composit…
Bitcoin in the Scientific Literature – A Bibliometric Study
2019
Abstract Since 2012, there has been growing interest in bitcoin scientific research from different fields, including computer science and engineering, economics, business and finance, law and regulatory. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate bitcoin literature based on the structures and networks of science, as a first step in the research of this new phenomenon. Analysing the growing scientific literature on bitcoin published between 2012 and 2019, we provided useful insights on academic research in this field regarding publication year, type and category, authors, journals and citations. The source of the 887 documents which support the study was Web of Science Core Collection. Using V…