Search results for "Econometric"

Are there threshold effects in the stock price–dividend relation? The case of the US stock market, 1871–2004

2008

We use recent developments on threshold autoregressive models that allow deriving endogenously threshold effects to analyse the evolution of the US stock price–dividend relation over the period 1871 to 2004. More specifically, a mean-reverting dynamic behaviour of the stock price–dividend ratio should be expected once such threshold is reached. Our empirical results showed that significant adjustments would occur when, in a particular year, the stock price–dividend ratio had shown a decrease of more than 8.0% between the previous year and the fourth year before, which implies nonlinearities in the dynamic behaviour of the US stock price–dividend relation.

Pre-holiday effect, large trades and small investor behaviour

2004

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence of a pre-holiday effect in the most important stocks of the Spanish Stock Exchange which are also traded in both the New York Stock Exchange and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Our results show high abnormal returns on the trading day prior to holidays. Several tests prove that the Spanish holiday effect is not due to market calendars in the USA or Germany. Also, we prove that the pre-holiday effect is not a manifestation of other calendar anomalies. The study of different liquidity measures suggests that the pre-holiday effect could be due to the reluctance of small investors to buy on pre-holidays, which produces an increase in the a…

Efectos de las fusiones bancarias en los resultados. El caso de las cajas rurales en España durante la primera mitad de la década de 2000

2010

ResumenDurante los últimos diez años se han producido numerosos episodios de fusiones entre cajas rurales españolas. El objetivo del trabajo es analizar el efecto que las fusiones entre cajas rurales llevadas a cabo durante la primera mitad de la década del 2000 han tenido sobre los niveles de rentabilidad, eficiencia y productividad y sobre el comportamiento estratégico de estas entidades. Para ello, se han seleccionado las fusiones realizadas durante el período considerado y se han analizado diferentes variables en comparación con la media del sector (grupo de control) para los cinco años anteriores y posteriores a la fusión. El estudio demuestra que las fusiones en las cajas rurales espa…

Knowing is half the battle: Seasonal forecasts, adaptive cropping systems, and the mediating role of private markets in Zambia

2019

Abstract This paper examines how smallholders living in regions where a drought is forecasted adapt their farm practices in response to receiving seasonal forecast information. The article draws on a unique longitudinal dataset in Zambia, which collected information from farm households before and after a significant drought caused by the 2015/2016 El-Nino Southern Oscillation. It finds that farmers residing in areas forecasted to be drought-affected and receiving seasonal forecast information are significantly more likely to integrate drought tolerant crops into their cropping systems compared to similar households not receiving this information. Moreover, the probability that a farmer imp…

Can Auditors Be Independent? – Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Client Type

2012

Recent regulatory initiatives stress that an independent oversight board, rather than the management board, should be the client of the auditor. In an experiment, we test whether the type of client affects auditors’ independence. Unique features of the German institutional setting enable us to realistically vary the type of auditors’ client as our treatment variable: we portray the client either as the management preferring aggressive accounting or the oversight board preferring conservative accounting. We measure auditors’ perceived client retention incentives and accountability pressure in a post-experiment questionnaire to capture potential threats to independence. We find that the type …

BALANCED VARIABLE ADDITION IN LINEAR MODELS

2018

This paper studies what happens when we move from a short regression to a long regression in a setting where both regressions are subject to misspecification. In this setup, the least-squares estimator in the long regression may have larger inconsistency than the least-squares estimator in the short regression. We provide a simple interpretation for the comparison of the inconsistencies and study under which conditions the additional regressors in the long regression represent a “balanced addition” to the short regression.

Warning: Bilateral trade agreements do not create trade

2021

Norwegian-Polish Bilateral Trade Developments since 1990

2016

Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications

2009

This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It finds that 1) most recent housing booms have been very persistent and of a significant magnitude; 2) there appears to be a strong correlation between the persistence and magnitude of booms and subsequent busts; 3) economic costs (in terms of GDP losses during the post-boom phase) depend significantly on the magnitude and duration of the boom and money and credit developments during that period; 4) a numb…

Simultaneity between strategic variables: Production, innovation, and product differentiation

1995

This paper aims to analyze the existence of simultaneous effects among the variables production, product differentiation, and innovation. Microeconomic data from a sample of 2,160 firms are used as a base. Empirical results show that a positive correlation exists from innovation to product differentiation, thus showing that it is in the process of production itself, through technical improvements, where product differentiation is determined. On the other hand, no positive effect exists from product differentiation to innovation, i.e., once technical improvements have been established, firms exchange the barriers to entry created by brand image for the real barriers established by innovation…