Search results for "Econometrics"
showing 10 items of 3730 documents
Stock Volatility Predictability in Bull and Bear Markets
2020
Recent literature on stock return predictability suggests that it varies substantially across economic states being strongest during bad economic times. In line with this evidence, we document that stock volatility predictability is also state dependent. In particular, using a large data set of high-frequency data on individual stocks and a few popular time-series volatility models, in this paper we comprehensively examine how volatility forecastability varies across bull and bear states of the stock market. We find that the volatility forecast horizon is substantially longer when the market is in a bear state than when it is in a bull state. In addition, the volatility forecast accuracy is…
Loan loss provisions. A study by economic cycles
2017
Este trabajo estudia los determinantes de las dotaciones para provisiones del deterioro de los créditos en las entidades de crédito españolas desde 1983 al segundo trimestre de 2013. Resultan significativos, además de la morosidad, las provisiones genéricas, el margen de interés, la estacionalidad centrada en el cuarto trimestre y los periodos de crisis. Al ser un periodo extenso se estudian cómo actúan los determinantes en cada uno de los 4 ciclos económicos que se han dado. Se encuentran similitudes importantes en los periodos de crisis y en los periodos de crecimiento, junto a las singularidades de los propios ciclos. Las aportaciones de esta investigación son: i) el diferente comportami…
L'efficacité des privatisations françaises : une vision dynamique à travers la théorie de la gouvernance
2004
International audience; A reading of the process of privatization through the corporate governance theory leads to propose a model taking into account, on the one hand, the time dimension of the process of privatization, on the other hand, the contextual, organizational, governance and strategic variables which influence this process. After replicating some traditional tests, we test this model on a sample of French privatized firms and on a seven years horizon. The positive effect traditionally attributed to privatizations is not confirmed. The importance of the effect is subordinated to some of the suggested variables.; Une lecture du processus de privatisation à travers la théorie de la …
Revolving doors: are they valued in the Spanish stock market?
2016
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of political connections in the value of companies listed on the Spanish stock market. Design/methodology/approach The authors study two issues on this topic: the impact on the company value of the appointment as director of an ex-politician through an event study; and the long run stock market performance of companies with political connections. The authors employ a sample of listed firms in the Spanish stock market for which the authors collected data about their political connections. The authors perform the study during a wide period (1996-2011), comprising four legislatures. Findings The results show that from the market persp…
COVID-19 Crisis - A Test for European Union’s Solidarity
2020
Abstract The crises the European Union has gone through over time have called into question the Union’s legitimacy and efficiency. The 2008-2009 financial crisis, the European debt crisis, the migration crisis and Brexit, have all tested the solidarity between member states. The COVID-19 pandemic is without a doubt the most drastic crisis in the EU’s history, with very severe socioeconomic consequences. The EU leaders were strongly criticized for not reacting quickly and efficiently enough to mitigate the impact of the virus, reduce suffering, and ward off the economic crisis. In this context, the questions that arise are: Is the Union a modern-day Titanic? Will it sink or it will sustain i…
The industry effect and the decision to integrate vertically in a crisis context
2019
The objective of this work is twofold: firstly, to study if the characteristics of the industry affect certain financial and strategic decisions of manufacturing firms and, secondly, to determine i...
Informal, formal institutions and credit: complements or substitutes?
2019
AbstractThis paper analyses the relationship between informal institutions measured by social trust and the provision of private credit. Research on the trust–finance relationship abounds, although most of it is confined to the micro-level, with far fewer contributions from a wide, cross-country perspective. Considering a sample of 119 economies in the period 1993–2015, results suggest that social trust is an important determinant of private credit, and that its effects are transmitted indirectly via some particular aspects of the quality of economic-judicial institutions. In addition, and contrary to previous findings in related areas, substitutive effects for informal and formal instituti…
Operational and financial performance of Italian airport companies: A dynamic graphical model
2016
Abstract This paper provides evidence on the relationship within a set of financial and operational indicators for Italian airports over 2008–2014. The limited sample size of national and regional airports suggests to apply the penalised RCON ( V , E ) model, which falls within the class of Gaussian graphical models. It provides both estimate and easy way to visualise conditional independence structures of the variables. Moreover, it is particularly suitable for handling longitudinal data where small number of units and huge number of variables have been collected. Findings highlight that a qualified concept of size matters in determining good financial performance. Specifically, increasing…
A three-stage competition game in an air transport network under asymmetric valuation of flight frequencies
2020
Abstract This paper analyzes the effects of changes in aeronautical charges as brought by several airport management regimes on the air transport industry. Airlines compete on both price and non-prices variables, where connecting passengers have asymmetric valuations of flight frequencies in different legs. Changes in landing fees trigger airlines reactions on flight frequencies and airfares, whose sign depends on the weight attached to flight frequencies. Thus, an increase in the spoke landing fee leads to more international flights under low valuations of frequencies at spoke airports. Simulation exercises show that profit-maximizing aeronautical charges only at the spoke airport are pref…
Decision support system to design feasible high-frequency Motorways of the Sea: A new perspective for public commitment
2016
ABSTRACTThe implementation of Motorways of the Sea (MoS) within the framework of European Union aid programs experiences a period of relative stagnation. This article analyzes the suitability of current short-term nonrepayable subsidy policy and develops a decision support system (DSS) that allows a medium- and long-term feasibility analysis of MoS proposals. One significant conclusion drawn from the application of the proposed DSS to a prototypical high-frequency MoS provides that the period of initial losses prior to achievement of both modal shift and accounting profits might last 10 years. Moreover, the entire duration of the period that includes prior objectives as well as the recoveri…