Search results for "Econometrics"
showing 10 items of 3730 documents
Daily streamlow prediction with uncertainty in ephemeral catchments using the GLUE methodology
2009
Abstract The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach is presented here as a tool for estimating the predictive uncertainty of a rainfall–runoff model. The GLUE methodology allows to recognise the possible equifinality of different parameter sets and assesses the likelihood of a parameters set being acceptable simulator when model predictions are compared to observed field data. The results of the GLUE methodology depend greatly on the choice of the likelihood measure and on the choice of the threshold which determines if a parameters set is behavioural or not. Moreover the sampling size has a strong influence on the uncertainty assessment of the response of a rainfall–…
Testing for goodness rather than lack of fit of continuous probability distributions.
2021
The vast majority of testing procedures presented in the literature as goodness-of-fit tests fail to accomplish what the term is promising. Actually, a significant result of such a test indicates that the true distribution underlying the data differs substantially from the assumed model, whereas the true objective is usually to establish that the model fits the data sufficiently well. Meeting that objective requires to carry out a testing procedure for a problem in which the statement that the deviations between model and true distribution are small, plays the role of the alternative hypothesis. Testing procedures of this kind, for which the term tests for equivalence has been coined in sta…
Probabilistic characterization of flood hazard using bivariate analysis based on copulas
2014
This study presents an innovative approach to obtain flood hazard maps where hydrological input (synthetic flood design event) to a 2D hydraulic model has been defined by generating flood peak discharges and volumes from a bivariate statistical analysis, through the use of copulas. Synthetic hydrographs were generated by means two different approaches: an indirect one, where rainfall were generated by a stochastic bivariate rainfall generator to be entered a distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model that consisted of a soil moisture routine and a flow routing routine; and a direct one, where stochastic generation of flood peaks and flow volumes have been obtained via copulas, which descr…
Does Regression Discontinuity Design Work? Evidence from Random Election Outcomes
2014
We use data for 198121 candidates and 1351 random election outcomes to estimate the effect of incumbency status on future electoral success. We find no evidence of incumbency advantage using data on randomized elections. In contrast, regression discontinuity design, using optimal bandwidths, produces a positive and significant incumbency effect. Using even narrower bandwidths aligns the results with those obtained using the randomized elections. So does the bias-correction of Calonico et al. (forthcoming). Standard validity tests are not useful in detecting the problems with the optimal bandwidths. The appropriate bandwidth seems narrower in larger elections and is thus context specific.
ESL ? A New Simulation Language for Economic Models
1990
A new simulation language for modelling economic processes is presented which allows the specification of single decision units and coordinates all their activities. The basic ideas and features of this language will be described and demonstrated through small examples.
El panel de loterías como tarea no paramétrica para la obtención de la actitud frente al riesgo
2012
In this paper, we propose a simple task for eliciting attitudes toward risky choice, the Sabater-Grande and Georgantzís (SGG) lottery-panel task, which consists in a series of lotteries constructed to compensate riskier options with higher risk-return trade-offs. Using Principal Component Analysis technique, we show that the SGG lotterypanel task is capable of capturing two dimensions of individual risky decision making: subjects’ average willingness to choose risky projects and their sensitivity towards variations in the return to risk. We report results from a large dataset obtained from the implementation of the SGG lottery-panel task and discuss regularities and the desirability of its …
SOCIAL CAPITAL AND BANK PERFORMANCE: AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON FOR OECD COUNTRIES
2008
Over the last few years the literature on social capital and bank efficiency analysis has expanded rapidly. We merge them by analysing how social capital affects bank efficiency in OECD countries. We use activity analysis techniques to measure efficiency, and social capital, which is related to the concept of generalized trust, is considered an environmental variable. Results suggest that the effect of social capital is more relevant for those financial institutions operating in low-social-capital environments. In these cases, inefficiencies are biased upwards, and controlling for social capital enables these banks to move up in the efficiency rankings.
Value added taxes on electronic commerce: Obstacles to the EU Commission’s approach
2000
While e-commerce is developing tremendously fast, domestic politics and legislation labour to keep up with the dynamics of the new technology. Among other things, fiscal law is a particularly explosive area. Here, the current proposal of the EU Commission is to apply the already existing value added tax to e-commerce. By doing so, the Commission hopes to prevent the massive threatened shortfall in tax revenue. How is this approach of the Commission to be judged? Are there any alternatives?
Un tweet ci seppellirà? Il nuovo ordine del discorso politico nell'Italia post-berlusconiana
2015
L’articolo affronta il tema delle nuove frontiere della comunicazione politica nell’Italia uscita dai venti anni in cui la scena è stata occupata quasi esclusivamente da Silvio Berlusconi. In particolare l’autore si concentra sul leader politico che oggi rappresenta meglio il passaggio, sul piano simbolico, da una comunicazione politica di matrice televisiva a una pensata idealmente per essere fruita nel mondo digitale: Matteo Renzi. L’intento del lavoro è quello di individuare i tratti salienti dell’ordine discorsivo costruito dall’attuale presidente del Consiglio italiano. L’autore sottolinea, servendosi anche di esempi tratti da discorsi parlamentari, saggi, interventi televisivi e sui s…
Urban poverty: Measurement theory and evidence from American cities
2021
AbstractWe characterize axiomatically a new index of urban poverty that i) captures aspects of the incidence and distribution of poverty across neighborhoods of a city, ii) is related to the Gini index and iii) is consistent with empirical evidence that living in a high poverty neighborhood is detrimental for many dimensions of residents’ well-being. Widely adopted measures of urban poverty, such as the concentrated poverty index, may violate some of the desirable properties we outline. Furthermore, we show that changes of urban poverty within the same city are additively decomposable into the contribution of demographic, convergence, re-ranking and spatial effects. We collect new evidence …