Search results for "Econometrics"
showing 10 items of 3730 documents
Theory of storage implications in the European natural gas market
2023
The theory of storage stands that futures prices should be equal to the spot price plus the interest forgone in storing the commodity and the warehousing costs minus the convenience yield on the inventory. In this paper, we test several implications of the theory of storage on the pricing of United Kingdom natural gas futures. We obtain partial evidence for the theory of storage as a complete explanation of the pricing of this futures contract. Explicitly, (i) we obtain evidence to explain convenience yield seasonality with spot price volatility, unexpected demand shocks when supply is tight, inventory variations, and trading activity in the futures markets; (ii) we obtain indirect evidence…
A note on normalization schemes: The case of generalized forecast error variance decompositions
2016
The aim of this paper is to propose new normalization schemes for the values obtained from the generalized forecast error variance decomposition, in order to obtain more reliable net spillover measures. We provide a review of various matrix normalization schemes used in different application domains. The intention is to contribute to the financial econometrics literature aimed at building a bridge between different approaches able to detect spillover effects, such as spatial regressions and network analyses. Considering DGPs characterized by different degrees of correlation and persistence, we show that the popular row normalization scheme proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), as well as t…
Customer Value Framework and Recommendation Intention: The Moderating Role of Customer Characteristics in an Online Travel Community
2019
The aim of this study was to develop and test a model that examined the interactions among the customer value framework, recommendation intention and customer characteristics in an online travel community (OTC). Data were obtained using Amazon Mechanical Turk from 251 members of an OTC as a sample. The partial least squares method was used to analyse the data. We found that all the variables of the customer value framework, including functional value, hedonic value and social value, were positively related to recommendation intention. In addition, using multi-group analyses, the study found differences between how different customer segments perceive each of the value dimensions and their e…
Change, Resistance to Change and Organizational Cynicism
2016
Abstract Over the past decades, the focus of the scientists has shifted towards the area of organizational change. The concept has been approached from several perspectives and studied by numerous disciplines and refers to a shift or transformation of an organization, of several components of the organization or of the processes that lie within. Being in an environment characterized by competitiveness and complexity, organizations are under a constant need of change, of progress, while the aim of each change is to improve the aspects that make this happen. The dynamics of the labour force market has contributed to the creation of an environment in which organizations are permanently facing …
Suite of Statistical Models Forecasting Latvian GDP
2014
Abstract We develop a suite of statistical models to forecast Latvian GDP. We employ various univariate and multivariate econometric techniques to obtain short-term GDP projections and to assess the performance of the models. We also comprise the information contained in components of GDP and obtain short-term GDP projections from disaggregated perspective. We run out-of-sample forecasting procedures to evaluate GDP projections and to assess forecasting accuracy of all individual statistical models. We conclude that factor and bridge models are among the best individually performing models in the suite. Forecasting accuracy obtained using disaggregated models of factor and bridge models is …
Differences in wage determination in the Eurozone: A challenge to the resilience of the common currency
2019
Abstract Different developments in wages and unit labor costs across countries can reduce the synchronization of business cycles within a currency area and therefore be a potential source of asymmetric shocks and/or asymmetric response to a common shock. In this paper, we use novel econometric methods to identify differences and similarities in wage determination across Eurozone countries. Results show that wages have different determinants across euro area countries, among which two relatively distinct groups can be identified. In particular, wages in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Finland behave more similarly, are less sticky and respond more to macroeconomic …
EMU and Trade Revisited: Long-Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations
2013
In this paper, we present evidence of the long-run effect of the euro on trade for the twelve initial EMU countries for the period 1967–2008 from a double perspective. First, we pool all the bilateral combinations of trade flows among the EMU countries in a panel cointegration gravity specification. Second, we estimate a gravity equation for each of the EMU members vis-a-vis the other eleven partners. We apply panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for cross-dependence and structural breaks. Whereas the joint gravity equation provides evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on intra-European trade, by isolating the individual countries, we assess which of th…
Human capital and the intertemporal substitution for leisure: empirical evidence for Spain
2022
AbstractIn this paper we provide the first estimate of the intertemporal substitution for leisure in Spain, accounting for the impact of human capital accumulation. This would allow uncovering whether the intertemporal labour supply of Spanish workers is affected by human capital. Our empirical strategy consists of estimating the equation for the intertemporal substitution of leisure with and without accounting for human capital, what allows to detect hypothetical estimation biases associated to omitting the impact of human capital. To that end, we build a pseudo-panel data set combining the Spanish Family Expenditure Survey and the Labour Survey over the period 1987–1997. While the model t…
Structural Parameters under Partial Least Squares and Covariance-Based Structural Equation Modeling : A Comment on Yuan and Deng (2021)
2023
In their article, Yuan and Deng argue that a structural parameter under partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is zero if and only if the same structural parameter is zero under covariance-based structural equation modeling (CB-SEM). Yuan and Deng then conclude that statistical tests on individual structural parameters assessing the null hypothesis of no effect can achieve the same purpose in CB-SEM and PLS-SEM. Our response to their article highlights that the relationship they find between PLS-SEM and CB-SEM structural parameters is not universally valid, and that consequently, tests on individual parameters in CB-SEM and PLS-SEM generally do not fulfill the same pur…
Need for speed? Exploring the relative importance of patents and utility models among German firms
2017
Despite the wide use of two-tiered patent systems (patents and utility models (UMs)), there is little empirical evidence about how often UMs are actually used, what kind of firms use them to protect their intellectual property, and how firms rank them relative to patents. We offer such an analysis using data from Germany. We find that larger firms are more likely to use both protection methods. Moreover, a short life cycle of products and services is associated with an increased likelihood to use UMs. The features and functioning of the German UM system are of broader interest because it has been a benchmark for several second tier patent protection systems around the world. peerReviewed