Search results for "Econometrics"
showing 10 items of 3730 documents
Grading investment diversification options in presence of non-historical financial information
2021
Modern portfolio theory deals with the problem of selecting a portfolio of financial assets such that the expected return is maximized for a given level of risk. The forecast of the expected individual assets’ returns and risk is usually based on their historical returns. In this work, we consider a situation in which the investor has non-historical additional information that is used for the forecast of the expected returns. This implies that there is no obvious statistical risk measure any more, and it poses the problem of selecting an adequate set of diversification constraints to mitigate the risk of the selected portfolio without losing the value of the non-statistical information owne…
The Role the Static Maximization Approach Plays in Neoclassical Analyses
1994
This is an article on the methodology of economic thought. The critical assessment of the neoclassical research programme contained here basically comes from the contributions of J.M. Buchanan, Nobel prize winner in Economics 1986. These comments are aimed at pointing out the role that the static maximization approach plays in neoclassical analyses since L. Robbins and P. Samuelson’s influential contributions came about after World War II. Just to complement this basic purpose, I present in section 4 the alternative methodological foundations J.M. Buchanan proposes and uses to replace the static maximization approach when building public choice analyses and I sketch in section 5 several pe…
Russia-Ukraine balance of military power
2017
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the most serious test of European security in the 21st century and the forgone conclusion is that Russia can easily prevail in the conflict, but this has not been the case. This article uses balance of military power analysis to report findings on the plausible outcome of a war between Ukraine and Russia. I report findings based on realist theoretical perspectives that indicate Russian victory is unlikely because of relative balance of power where Russia has to face multiple threats diverting its military power while Ukraine can concentrate its military power for a single purpose. The findings suggest implication for policy in Russia, Ukraine, EU and the Unite…
From Neo-Functional Peace to a Logic of Spillover in EU External Policy: A Response to Visoka and Doyle
2017
In their recently published JCMS article, Gezim Visoka and John Doyle have proposed the concept of ‘neofunctional peace’ as a means to conceptualize the EU's peacemaking practices in the case of the EU-facilitated Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. This article challenges the ‘neo-functional peace’ on conceptual and empirical grounds. We critically discuss Visoka and Doyle's (2016) reading of neofunctionalism and question parts of their empirical evidence given for the existence of a ‘neo-functional peace’. Going beyond a mere critique of the article by Visoka and Doyle and arguing that the authors may not have fully exploited neofunctionalism's potential for theorizing EU external policy, we stip…
The organization of the defense support system: an economic geography perspective
2017
In the context of restricted budgetary resources and the growing cost of maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) activities, a major issue for modern armed forces is to sustain defense platforms. A possible method consists of realizing economies of scale through the concentration of maintenance activities, which involves the spatial reorganization of existing industrial sites dedicated to MRO. This article provides a formalized framework to discuss the optimal organization for the MRO of defense platforms in space. The public planner organizes the maintenance of defense platforms with only two possible spatial configurations. In the dispersed configuration, two industrial production units i…
Sharing R&D investments in breakthrough technologies to control climate change
2017
This paper examines international cooperation on technological development as an alternative to international cooperation on GHG emission reductions. In order to analyze the scope of cooperation, a three-stage technology agreement formation game is solved. First, countries decide whether or not to sign up to the agreement. Then, in the second stage, the signatories (playing together) and the non-signatories (playing individually) select their investment in R&D. In this stage, it is assumed that the signatories not only coordinate their levels of R&D investment but also pool their R&D efforts to fully internalize the spillovers of their investment in innovation. Finally, in the third stage, …
Stature and long-term labor market outcomes: Evidence using Mendelian randomization.
2017
We use the Young Finns Study (N = ∼2000) on the measured height linked to register-based long-term labor market outcomes. The data contain six age cohorts (ages 3, 6, 9, 12, 15 and 18, in 1980) with the average age of 31.7, in 2001, and with the female share of 54.7. We find that taller people earn higher earnings according to the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. The OLS models show that 10 cm of extra height is associated with 13% higher earnings. We use Mendelian randomization, with the genetic score as an instrumental variable (IV) for height to account for potential confounders that are related to socioeconomic background, early life conditions and parental investments, which ar…
Improving risk assessments in conservation ecology
2019
Conservation efforts and management decisions on the living environment of our planet often rely on the results from statistical models. Yet, these models are imperfect and quantification of risk associated with the estimate of management-relevant quantities becomes crucial in providing robust advice. Here we demonstrate that estimates of risk themselves could be substantially biased but by combining data fitting with an extensive simulation–estimation procedure, one can back-calculate the correct values. We apply the method to 627 time series of population abundance across four taxa using the Gompertz state-space model as an example. We find that the risk of large bias in population status…
Comparison of biocides, allelopathic substances and UV-C as treatments for biofilm proliferation on heritage monuments
2018
Abstract UV-C and biocide treatments are frequently used to treat historical monuments contaminated by autotrophic biofilms. In this study, the authors compare for the first time the efficacy of these treatments against microorganisms such as cyanobacteria and algae proliferating in the Vicherey church (Vicherey, Vosges Department, France). To identify the most environmentally friendly and also efficient method, an allelopathic treatment was also tested. Colorimetric and physiological measurements of treated biofilms were thus monitored for 6 months. Fungi growing on necrotic matter from treated biofilms were sampled and sequenced. With biocides, results showed incomplete eradication of bio…
Consumers' willingness to pay for natural food: Evidence from an artefactual field experiment
2018
Abstract Among foods with credence attributes, food with “natural” components have received in the last years particular attention by consumers. This study applies the BDM incentive compatible mechanism to explore young (18–35 years old) consumers’ interest and willingness to pay for chewing gums having the natural attribute. Our analysis shows that over 68% of consumers are interested in the natural attribute and are willing to pay a price premium. We also find that consumers’ higher age and interest in the environment have significant impacts on consumers’ preferences for the natural attribute.