Search results for "Epidemic"
showing 10 items of 138 documents
On a stochastic SIR model
2007
We consider a stochastic SIR system and we prove the existence, uniqueness and positivity of solution. Moreover the existence of an invariant measure under a suitable condition on the coefficients is studied.
Modello stocastico di epidemia
2007
Obesity and diabetes-Not only a simple link between two epidemics
2018
Summary Diabetes (DM) as well as obesity, due to their increasing incidence, were recognized as epidemic by the World Health Organization. Obesity is involved not only in the aetiopathogenesis of the most common worldwide type of DM—type 2 diabetes—but also in the development of its complications. There is also increasing scientific evidence regarding the role of obesity and overweight in type 1 diabetes. Weight gain may be considered as a complication of insulin treatment but also reveals significant pathophysiological impact on various stages of the disease. Another very important aspect related to DM as well as obesity is the microbiome, which is highly variable. The function of the gut …
A Full-Scale Agent-Based Model to Hypothetically Explore the Impact of Lockdown, Social Distancing, and Vaccination During the COVID-19 Pandemic in L…
2021
Background The COVID-19 outbreak, an event of global concern, has provided scientists the opportunity to use mathematical modeling to run simulations and test theories about the pandemic. Objective The aim of this study was to propose a full-scale individual-based model of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy, to test various scenarios pertaining to the pandemic and achieve novel performance metrics. Methods The model was designed to simulate all 10 million inhabitants of Lombardy person by person via a simple agent-based approach using a commercial computer. In order to obtain performance data, a collision detection model was developed to enable cluster nodes in small cells that can b…
How to remove the testing bias in CoV-2 statistics
2020
BACKGROUNDPublic health measures and private behaviour are based on reported numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Some argue that testing influences the confirmed number of infections.OBJECTIVES/METHODSDo time series on reported infections and the number of tests allow one to draw conclusions about actual infection numbers? A SIR model is presented where the true numbers of susceptible, infectious and removed individuals are unobserved. Testing is also modelled.RESULTSOfficial confirmed infection numbers are likely to be biased and cannot be compared over time. The bias occurs because of different reasons for testing (e.g. by symptoms, representative or testing travellers). The paper illustrat…
Legionellosis Outbreak Associated with Asphalt Paving Machine, Spain, 2009
2010
From 1999 through 2005 in Alcoi, Spain, incidence of legionellosis was continually high. Over the next 4 years, incidence was lower, but an increase in July 2009 led health authorities to declare an epidemic outbreak. A molecular epidemiology investigation showed that the allelic profiles for all Legionella pneumophila samples from the 2009 outbreak patients were the same, thus pointing to a common genetic origin for their infections, and that they were identical to that of the organism that had caused the previous outbreaks. Spatial-temporal and sequence-based typing analyses indicated a milling machine used in street asphalt repaving and its water tank as the most likely sources. As oppos…
Temporal association between the influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): RSV as a predictor of seasonal influenza.
2016
SUMMARYEpidemiologists agree that there is a prevailing seasonality in the presentation of epidemic waves of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections and influenza. The aim of this study is to quantify the potential relationship between the activity of RSV, with respect to the influenza virus, in order to use the RSV seasonal curve as a predictor of the evolution of an influenza virus epidemic wave. Two statistical tools, logistic regression and time series, are used for predicting the evolution of influenza. Both logistic models and time series of influenza consider RSV information from previous weeks. Data consist of influenza and confirmed RSV cases reported in Comunitat Valenciana (…
No uniform associations between parasite prevalence and environmental nutrients
2014
The resource quality of the host has been shown to affect parasite transmission success, prevalence, and virulence. Seasonal availability of environmental nutrients alters density and stoichiometric quality (carbon–nutrient ratios) of both producers and consumers, suggesting that nutrient availability may drive fluctuations in parasite prevalence patterns observed in nature. We examined the interactions between the population dynamics of a keystone herbivore, Daphnia, and its parasites, and their associations with water nutrient concentrations, resource quantity and quality, and other environmental variables (temperature, pH, oxygen concentration) in a small lake, using general linear model…
Probabilistic stability analysis of social obesity epidemic by a delayed stochastic model
2014
Abstract Sufficient conditions for stability in probability of the equilibrium point of a social obesity epidemic model with distributed delay and stochastic perturbations are obtained. The obesity epidemic model is demonstrated on the example of the Region of Valencia, Spain. The considered nonlinear system is linearized in the neighborhood of the positive point of equilibrium and a sufficient condition for asymptotic mean square stability of the zero solution of the constructed linear system is obtained.
Pseudomonas aeruginosa cause epidemic disease in the milkweed bug,Oncopeltus fasciatus dallas (Insecta, Heteroptera)
1976
Pseudomonas aeruginosa was recognized as the causative organism of an epidemic disease occurring in a laboratory breed ofOncopeltus fasciatus. The infection probably occurs peroral and is favoured by high temperature and humidity.Pseudomonas aeruginosa destroys the fat body of the bug.