Search results for "Exchange rate"
showing 10 items of 102 documents
Bayesian inference for the extremal dependence
2016
A simple approach for modeling multivariate extremes is to consider the vector of component-wise maxima and their max-stable distributions. The extremal dependence can be inferred by estimating the angular measure or, alternatively, the Pickands dependence function. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian model that allows, in the bivariate case, the simultaneous estimation of both functional representations through the use of polynomials in the Bernstein form. The constraints required to provide a valid extremal dependence are addressed in a straightforward manner, by placing a prior on the coefficients of the Bernstein polynomials which gives probability one to the set of valid functions. The…
An Economic Viewpoint on Capitalism Bashing
2016
Abstract In this paper I discuss two long disputed notions: that capitalism without crises is a fallacy respectively that capitalism bashing, however severe, will not endanger the system itself. Yet proving both is not an easy task since the capitalism issue has always been a cupellation of theory, ideology and political precepts, which are controversial and hard to disentangle. That capitalism detractors are numberless is a truism. Yet criticism against capitalism, however fierce, has always been clearly delineated. Not any more: globalization has rendered the picture dangerously fuzzy. It is now hard to ascertain whether someone who will harangue about the ostensible evils of globalizatio…
The real effect of financial crises in the European transition economies1
2010
The aim of this work is to assess the impact of financial crises on output for 11 European transition economies (CEECs). The results suggest that financial crises have a significant and permanent effect, lowering long-term output by about 17 percent. The effect is more important in smaller countries, with relative higher dependence on external financing, and in which the banking sector noticed more important financial disequilibria. We also found that fiscal policy measures have been the most efficient tools in dealing with the crises, while the role of monetary policy instruments has been rather blinded. Exchange rate resulted to be more a propagator than a crises absorber, while the IMF c…
The Real Effect of Financial Crises in the European Transition Economies
2009
The aim of this work is to assess the impact of financial crises on output for 11 European transition economies (CEECs). The results suggest that financial crises have a significant and permanent effect, lowering long-term output by about 17 percent. The effect is more important in smaller countries, with relative higher dependence on external financing, and in which the banking sector noticed more important financial disequilibria. We also found that fiscal policy measures have been the most efficient tools in dealing with the crises, while the role of monetary policy instruments has been rather blinded. Exchange rate resulted to be more a propagator than a crises absorber, while the IMF c…
Nonrenewable Energy Prices and Stock Prices of EU Financial Companies: A Short Versus Long-Term Analysis
2021
This paper investigates the relationship between financial companies’ stock prices and nonrenewable energy sources prices (crude oil and coal price) using a sample of major financial companies headquartered in the EU. The link between stock prices and nonrenewable energy sources prices risk is modeled using a set of macroeconomic variables, such as Brent crude oil price, coal price, local stock market indices, the EUR/USD exchange rate, long-term interest rates and a global volatility measure (VIX). We apply panel data as the base econometric model and an ARDL extension that sheds light on the long versus short-run exposure of EU financial companies to nonrenewable energy prices volatility.…
Exchange Rate and Inflation Risk Premia in the UME
2012
This paper tests the effects of exchange rate and inflation risk factors on asset pricing in the European Union (EU) stock markets. This investigation is motivated by the results of Vassalou (2000) [Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 433-70] showing that both exchange rate and foreign inflation are generally priced in equity returns, and the opportunity to evaluate the causality between these sources of risk after the elimination of the EU currency risks because of the adoption of the single currency. Our results show that both exchange rate and inflation risks are significantly priced in the pre- and post-euro periods. Moreover, the size of exchange rate and inflation risk pre…
The Global Crisis and Alternative Scenarios to Save the Euro: A Spanish Perspective
2013
That the euro was in trouble became evident after the financial markets' turmoil the summer of 2007. The global financial crisis called into question some of the dogma propounded by the champions of liberal capitalism, such as the efficiency of financial markets. Whereas in the US several banks went bankrupt, in the EU the banking sector was recapitalised, and fiscal measures were taken to support companies and families, and to stimulate the economy; moreover, an institutional framework was set up to improve financial regulation and supervision. The banking and financial crisis was followed, as usual, by a debt crisis. In 2010–11, successive European Summits accelerated the creation of fina…
International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending
2019
This paper sheds new light on the degree of international fiscal-financial spillovers by investigating the effect of domestic fiscal policies on cross-border bank lending. By estimating the dynamic response of U.S. cross-border bank lending towards the 45 recipient countries to exogenous domestic fiscal shocks (both measured by spending and revenue) between 1990Q1 and 2012Q4, we find that expansionary domestic fiscal shocks lead to a statistically significant increase in cross-border bank lending. The magnitude of the effect is also economically significant: the effect of 1 percent of GDP increase (decrease) in spending (revenue) is comparable to an exogenous decline in the federal funds ra…
Fiscal multipliers and job-protection regulation
2021
Abstract We study, both theoretically and empirically, how labor market regulation affects fiscal multipliers. We focus on the stringency of employment protection legislation, a prominent source of rigidity in European labor markets. First, using a small-open economy model that features labor-market search-and-matching frictions and nominal rigidities, we show that an increase in government spending has larger output effects when firing costs are lower. The importance of layoff costs for the public spending multiplier is larger in the absence of exchange rate adjustment and in a recession. Second, we confirm these findings empirically using a panel of 26 advanced countries over the period 1…
Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade: Blooming or Withering Roses?
2013
Abstract Using a gravity model and data on 182 countries worldwide, this paper estimates the effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade for ten years spanning 1980 through 2010. We provide added confirmation and further strengthen the empirical findings in Rose (2000) prior to 1999, but we find a gradually diminishing Rose effect for the 2000-2010 period, when the Euro Zone is added to the currency union dummy. The rest of the coefficients generally comply in magnitude and sign with what is standard in the “gravity” literature. Our findings support a much stronger effect of a currency union on trade than the hypothetical effect of reducing exchange rate v…