Search results for "Forecast"

Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science

2017

Machine learning approaches are increasingly used to extract patterns and insights from the ever-increasing stream of geospatial data, but current approaches may not be optimal when system behaviour is dominated by spatial or temporal context. Here, rather than amending classical machine learning, we argue that these contextual cues should be used as part of deep learning (an approach that is able to extract spatio-temporal features automatically) to gain further process understanding of Earth system science problems, improving the predictive ability of seasonal forecasting and modelling of long-range spatial connections across multiple timescales, for example. The next step will be a hybri…

The rise of the middle author: Investigating collaboration and division of labor in biomedical research using partial alphabetical authorship

2017

Contemporary biomedical research is performed by increasingly large teams. Consequently, an increasingly large number of individuals are being listed as authors in the bylines, which complicates the proper attribution of credit and responsibility to individual authors. Typically, more importance is given to the first and last authors, while it is assumed that the others (the middle authors) have made smaller contributions. However, this may not properly reflect the actual division of labor because some authors other than the first and last may have made major contributions. In practice, research teams may differentiate the main contributors from the rest by using partial alphabetical author…

Noise-induced behavioral change driven by transient chaos

2022

We study behavioral change in the context of a stochastic, non-linear consumption model with preference adjusting, interdependent agents. Changes in long-run consumption behavior are modelled as noise induced transitions between coexisting attractors. A particular case of multistability is considered: two fixed points, whose immediate basins have smooth boundaries, coexist with a periodic attractor, with a fractal immediate basin boundary. If a trajectory leaves an immediate basin, it enters a set of complexly intertwined basins for which final state uncertainty prevails. The standard approach to predicting transition events rooted in the stochastic sensitivity function technique due to Mil…

Surface to boundary layer coupling in the urban area of Lisbon comparing different urban canopy models in WRF

2019

Abstract This work presents a sensitivity study to evaluate different Urban Canopy Models (UCM) existing within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in the urban area of Lisbon, Portugal. Several hind-cast simulations were carried out for a selected period in July 2010, in which synoptic conditions favoured urban heat island formation. We aim to gain knowledge on the feedback of modified urban canopy representation in WRF on local scale meteorology and the boundary-layer dynamics over the urban area, by comparing a single layer urban canopy model (SLUCM) and a more sophisticated multi-layer building effect parametrisation (BEP). We find significant differences in the characteris…

[Coronary microvascular dysfunction: past, present, and future of an evolving disease].

2017

Coronary atherosclerosis is the main cause of myocardial ischemia. Nevertheless 10-30% of patients with angina has angiographically normal coronary arteries. In the last 30 years, several studies showed that in these patients the symptoms can be caused by dysfunction of the coronary microcirculation. Coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMVD) occurring in patients affected by specific cardiac or systemic diseases may be due to mechanisms of the underlying disease. On the other hand, in several patients affected by angina with angiographically normal coronary arteries, there is no specific disease, and CMVD only is responsible for the clinical picture. This condition can be defined as leading…

Neurotrophin secretion: current facts and future prospects

2003

The proteins of the mammalian neurotrophin family (nerve growth factor (NGF), brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), neurotrophin-3 (NT-3) and neurotrophin-4/5 (NT-4/5)) were originally identified as neuronal survival factors. During the last decade, evidence has accumulated implicating them (especially BDNF) in addition in the regulation of synaptic transmission and synaptogenesis in the CNS. However, a detailed understanding of the secretion of neurotrophins from neurons is required to delineate their role in regulating synaptic function. Some crucial questions that need to be addressed include the sites of neurotrophin secretion (i.e. axonal versus dendritic; synaptic versus extrasyna…

Morphological parameters as predictors of successful correction of Class III malocclusion

2001

The aim of the study was to assess pre-treatment cephalometric parameters and measurements of the size of the apical bases as predictors of successful orthodontic correction of Class III malocclusions. Pre- and post-treatment lateral cephalograms and study models of 80 completed Class III subjects were examined to obtain 23 cephalometric parameters taken mainly from the analyses of McNamara and Schwarz, and to measure the size of the apical bases. Success of occlusal correction was evaluated as the percentage change of peer assessment rating score during treatment, which was used as the dependent variable in multivariate statistical analyses testing the predictive value of the parameters as…

Preliminary Analysis on Correlations between Spatial Distribution of Chlorophyll-a and Experimental Data of Biomass in the Strait of Sicily

2010

This study, using both remotely sensed and measured in situ data, is directed to the analysis of the correlations between the chlorophyll-a concentration and the biomass of sardines and anchovies acoustically evaluated in the Strait of Sicily. This work, inter alia, shows the usefulness of remote observation of seas in determining possible relationships between fish stocks and some oceanographic parameters (Sea Surface Temperature, Chlorophyll-a, Zooplankton).

2017

Abstract. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are hazardous pollutants, with increasing emissions in pace with economic development in East Asia, but their distribution and fate in the atmosphere are not yet well understood. We extended the regional atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecast model with Chemistry module) to comprehensively study the atmospheric distribution and the fate of low-concentration, slowly degrading semivolatile compounds. The WRF-Chem-PAH model reflects the state-of-the-art understanding of current PAHs studies with several new or updated features. It was applied for PAHs covering a wide range of volatility and hydrophobicity, i.e. phenanth…

Stochastic models for wind speed forecasting

2011

Abstract This paper is concerned with the problem of developing a general class of stochastic models for hourly average wind speed time series. The proposed approach has been applied to the time series recorded during 4 years in two sites of Sicily, a region of Italy, and it has attained valuable results in terms both of modelling and forecasting. Moreover, the 24 h predictions obtained employing only 1-month time series are quite similar to those provided by a feed-forward artificial neural network trained on 2 years data.