Search results for "Forecast"
showing 10 items of 417 documents
Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium in the European Monetary Union
2018
This article examines the performance of several variables that could be good predictors of the equity risk premium in the European Monetary Union for a period that spans from 2000 to 2015. In-sample, technical indicators display predictive power, matching or exceeding that of traditional economic forecasting variables. We also find consistent results in the fact that combining information from technical and economic variables improves equity risk premium forecasts, compared to using these variables alone. Nevertheless, out-of-sample exercises do not confirm in-sample results. Economic predictors show stronger out-of-sample forecasting ability than technical indicators, and apart from volum…
Search of a topological pattern to evaluate toxicity of heterogeneous compounds.
2001
Abstract Molecular connectivity has been applied to the search of mathematical models able to predict the carcinogenic and teratogenic activity of a wide group of structurally heterogeneous compounds. Through the linear discriminant analysis and the diagrams of distribution of pharmacological activity, the classification criteria that minimizes the percentage of error are established. The easiness and speed of the calculation of the descriptors used in this work make the models developed useful in data bases containing a huge number of compounds.
Functional Data Analysis for Optimizing Strategies of Cash-Flow Management
2017
The cash management deals with problem of automating and managing cash-flow processes. Optimization of the management processes greatly reduces overall cash handling costs. The present analysis is an empirical study of cash flows, from and to bank branches, deriving an underlying theoretical framework, which can in a reasonable way be connected with the optimal strategy. Functional data analysis is considered an appropriate framework to analyze the dynamics of the time series behavior of cash flows: since the observations are not equally spaced in time and their number is different for each series, they are converted into a collection of random curves in a space spanned by finite dimensiona…
Hydrological post-processing based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)
2019
[EN] This study introduces a method to quantify the conditional predictive uncertainty in hydrological post-processing contexts when it is cumbersome to calculate the likelihood (intractable likelihood). Sometimes, it can be difficult to calculate the likelihood itself in hydrological modelling, specially working with complex models or with ungauged catchments. Therefore, we propose the ABC post-processor that exchanges the requirement of calculating the likelihood function by the use of some sufficient summary statistics and synthetic datasets. The aim is to show that the conditional predictive distribution is qualitatively similar produced by the exact predictive (MCMC post-processor) or …
Non-dominated “trade-off” solutions in television scheduling optimization
2014
The main approaches for the television scheduling design are commonly based on the ratings or revenues maximization objective, and thus, only a single optimal solution can be obtained, corresponding to the best result for the considered objective. Therefore, these approaches lead up to the alternative solutions loss which, even if less effective from the ratings or revenues maximization viewpoint, may be more suitable for the decision maker because of better compromise in relation to factors influencing the decision process. Specifically, such a compromise could be achieved through a suitable “trade-off” between these factors, with reference to the decision context in which the decision mak…
Introducing the Temporal Distortion Index to perform a bidimensional analysis of renewable energy forecast
2016
Abstract Wind has been the largest contributor to the growth of renewal energy during the early 21st century. However, the natural uncertainty that arises in assessing the wind resource implies the occurrence of wind power forecasting errors which perform a considerable role in the impacts and costs in the wind energy integration and its commercialization. The main goal of this paper is to provide a deeper insight in the analysis of timing errors which leads to the proposal of a new methodology for its control and measure. A new methodology, based on Dynamic Time Warping, is proposed to be considered in the estimation of accuracy as attribute of forecast quality. A new dissimilarity measure…
RAMS-forecasts comparison of typical summer atmospheric conditions over the Western Mediterranean coast
2014
Abstract The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) has been used in order to perform a high-resolution numerical simulation of two meteorological events related to the most common atmospheric environments during the summer over the Western Mediterranean coast: mesoscale circulations and western synoptic advections. In this regard, we take advantage of the operational RAMS configuration running within the real-time forecasting system environment already implemented over this Mediterranean area, precisely in the Valencia Region and nearby areas. The attention of this paper is especially focused on identifying the main features of both events and the ability of the model in resolving the…
Sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to convective parameterization in the October 2007 Flash Flood in the Valencia Region (Eastern Spain)
2018
Abstract. The Valencia region, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, is an area prone to torrential rains, especially the north of Alicante province and the south of Valencia province. In October 2007, a torrential rain event with accumulated rainfall values exceeding 400 mm in less than 24 h affected the aforementioned areas, producing flash floods that caused extensive economic losses and human casualties. Several simulations of this rain event have been performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to test the influence of the different convective parameterization scheme implemented in the model on the precipitation forecast.
Impact of Initial Soil Temperature Derived from Remote Sensing and Numerical Weather Prediction Datasets on the Simulation of Extreme Heat Events
2016
Extreme heat weather events have received increasing attention and has become of special importance as they can remarkably affect sectors as diverse as public health, energy consumption, water resources, natural biodiversity and agricultural production. In this regard, summer temperatures have become a parameter of essential interest under a framework of a hypothetical increase in the number of intense-heat conditions. Thus, their forecast is a crucial aspect bearing in mind a mitigation of the effects and impacts that these intense-heat situations could produce. The current work tries to reach a better understanding of these sorts of situations that are really common over the Western Medit…
Implementation of non-local boundary layer schemes in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System and its impact on simulated mesoscale circulations
2016
This paper proposes the implementation of different non-local Planetary Boundary Layer schemes within the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) model. The two selected PBL parameterizations are the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) PBL and its updated version, known as the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL. YSU is a first-order scheme that uses non-local eddy diffusivity coefficients to compute turbulent fluxes. It is based on the MRF, and improves it with an explicit treatment of the entrainment. With the aim of evaluating the RAMS results for these PBL parameterizations, a series of numerical simulations have been performed and contrasted with the results obtained using the Mellor and Yamada (M…